The market situation of peppers and peanuts this year

Analysis and Forecast of New Peanut Market in 2007

Recently, domestic peanuts have begun to be harvested and put on the market. With the increase in listing volume, the market situation has declined. Compared with previous years, the launch time of peanuts in most areas has been slightly delayed, and it should be more than half a month before peanuts are launched in large quantities. During this period, peanut oil factories will be very concerned about the fluctuations in peanut market prices. It is expected that after September, transactions in the peanut market will become more active, and peanut market prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. The specific analysis is as follows:

Market Purchases and sales are light, and prices have fallen

Recently, in the process of a small amount of peanuts being put on the market, due to the generally high moisture content of new peanuts, the overall quantity of peanuts available is small, and farmers in some areas are reluctant to sell, so the peanuts have been sold out recently. The market circulation is small. The price of peanuts in Hubei and Jiangxi has dropped from 3.5-3.6 yuan/catty at the beginning of the market to 3.3-3.4 yuan/catty. In Shandong, it has dropped from about 3.4 yuan/catty to about 3.25 yuan/catty. , the decrease is 0.1-0.2 yuan/jin. Despite this, the current peanut price is still significantly higher than the same period last year, which was about 2.8 yuan/jin. It is expected that after the peanut listing volume increases in the later period, market transactions will gradually become more active. Especially after the acquisition of oil mills begins, market prices may still fluctuate.

The supply of downstream products has tightened, supporting peanut prices

Recently, the prices of downstream peanut products have shown a rising trend. Among them, the strengthening of peanut meal prices has attracted more attention, and has been affected by soybean meal prices. Due to the continued strong performance, peanut meal prices have also entered a historically high range. At present, the ex-factory price of soybean meal in coastal oil plants has reached 2,750-2,850 yuan/ton, and the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of peanut meal in Shandong has also risen to about 2,500 yuan/ton amid the scarcity of supply, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The peanut oil market has little fluctuation and maintains stable operation. For oil mills, the current relative drop in peanut prices will be conducive to later acquisitions by oil mills, because the profit level of peanut crushing is still good. During the period when peanuts are on the market in relatively large quantities, oil mills may still rush to purchase peanuts in advance before the Mid-Autumn Festival. , thereby forming support for peanut prices.

Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the room for price decline is limited

Although domestic peanut prices continued to strengthen during the first half of this year, most farmers have already shipped goods before the Spring Festival and have not sold peanuts. During the price increase period, you will feel that you are winning more profits. Therefore, during the launch of peanuts this year, farmers' sales psychology also changed slightly. According to traders in Hubei, the current peanut purchase volume is significantly less than the same period last year, and some farmers even have a certain reluctance to sell. In recent years, farmers' incomes have continued to increase and grain and oil prices have shown an upward trend. Farmers' ability to retain peanuts will also be stronger than in previous years, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the recent decline in peanut prices.

Comprehensive analysis shows that as the number of peanuts on the market is gradually increasing, it is normal for peanut prices to fall back from high levels, especially in the context of a year-on-year increase of more than 10% this year. However, due to the overall tight supply in the domestic oilseed and oil market this year, peanuts are a product with strong seasonal supply, and oil mills will be relatively concentrated on purchasing. In addition, farmers have a wait-and-see attitude towards sales this year, so the market price of peanuts should be difficult to significantly increase. back to last year's lows.