Why do some scams seem stupid at first glance, but some people still believe them?

Have you ever received such a retarded text message:

Hello, I am Qin Shihuang. I have been sleeping without death. Now I am resurrected. My 100,000 terracotta warriors and horses can be resurrected to rule the world, so I need a sum of money now. As long as you transfer 5,000 yuan to the XXXXX account to help me successfully restore the country, I will record a great merit for you. After occupying the world, I will seal the land of a province to you. You become the prince.

Because this scam text message was really fake, it later spread widely on the Internet, and finally turned into a famous joke "I, Qin Shihuang, send money!"

Why are you a fool? So many?

I believe most of you will laugh it off when you receive similar text messages. Then have you ever had the same question - has anyone really fallen for such a silly scam?

It’s true. A certain year there was news about a similar situation. Two scammers lied about being Cixi and Li Lianying and defrauded an entrepreneur of millions.

Then the question is, why can such a scam still deceive people? In fact, don’t laugh. Maybe after listening to my explanation, you will find that you are not much different from them. This has to do with the way humans understand fate. If you also believe in fate, be careful.

The above scam actually has quite a origin. It is collectively known as the "Nigerian Prince Scam" internationally. The content is basically the same, except that Qin Shihuang was replaced by a Nigerian prince who fled abroad. In order to transfer A large amount of money requires a handling fee, and he promises to give you $10,000 as a reward after completion.

Have you found that this kind of rhetoric is more misleading than Qin Shihuang? If you have never been warned to be careful about deception before, will you be fooled? If you were to apply this routine to something you believed deeply in, would you really be able to identify it? When I was a student, there was a girl who scorned novels about cultivating immortals, but she firmly believed that the world of Harry Potter was real, and she looked like "Why don't you always understand me?"

Okay, then why do people believe what Qin Shi Huang said? This is actually a screening process. If you don’t believe it, you are not the target customer of the scammer. If you are even willing to believe such nonsense, then you will probably believe it if you lie a little more.

Because there are so many people, no matter how bizarre the deception is, there is a relatively small proportion of people who believe it. As long as you cast the net widely, you can catch the fish you need.

The problem is that many people who think they are very wise actually have some loopholes in their understanding or thinking. Maybe they are familiar with all the known deceptions, but as long as they change their clothes, they will It is very likely that you will be tricked. For example, although this person does not believe in Qin Shihuang, but he firmly believes in yin and yang, the five elements or the constellations, he may not be immune to similar scams.

So to understand the internal logic of this deception, the key is to realize that "you are not special." This text message that makes you laugh is likely to hit someone who is calmer and wiser than you. A person's weakness.

Deconstructing Destiny

Is this already great? Don’t panic, there is a more powerful trick, be prepared and start taking the trick!

If one day you receive an email:

"Hello, I am a mathematician who studies probabilistic divination anonymously. I achieved a major breakthrough in my research last year. , now the formula I discovered can perfectly predict the outcome of basketball. I am now willing to transfer this formula to others for 10,000 yuan, which is enough to help you make a fortune.

I know you must be scolding me now. Liar, it doesn’t matter, we also need to build trust between us. Now I will predict the results of this season’s football match to you. Tomorrow the slow boat will win against the second kicker team. Let’s make a decision after this preview is completed! ”

You think this email is really baffling, but when I buy sports lottery tickets, I often seek inspiration from various lottery predictions. A few times, I really got a big upset, but then It doesn’t work again. Could it be that there really is a formula in this world that can calculate the laws of the future? And was found by an expert?

So you watched the game the next day, and it turned out that the slow boat won, but it was not difficult to guess, maybe it was just a coincidence, you thought.

In the evening, you received another email

"I believe you have also seen that my first prediction was correct. Of course, I was not stupid enough to think that you would be so quick. Believe me, the result of tomorrow’s game will be that the Gangfighter will defeat the Hairen, let’s wait and see!”

This is a bit courageous, because according to the normal strength comparison, what will happen to the Gangfighter? Maybe beat the Mariners? You suddenly feel like it's time to see if this formula works.

The next day, a big upset! The Gangsters really beat the Seamen! You are shocked, this formula seems to be really amazing!

On the third day, a small surprise was predicted by the mysterious person again.

On the fourth day, it was quite satisfactory and the prediction was correct!

On the fifth day, it was a bit surprising, but it was still correct!

On the sixth day, as expected, it was still a hit!

On the seventh day, today you decide to buy lottery tickets as stated in the email, and you get an upset again, and you make a fortune!

On the eighth day, you decide to increase your bets. This time, although it is not as dramatic, it is still correct! Small profit.

Okay, this season is over, but you obviously haven’t won enough, and then the email from the mysterious man arrives again as promised

“Dear friend, do your best. Have you decided? If you don't buy it today, you won't be able to buy it in the future. My formula has made too many people rich. Now the police are already investigating me. I will go abroad the day after tomorrow. I can only make a friend before that. Just one."

So your trembling hands reached for your wallet...

………………

Click! pause!

Okay, now let me ask you, how did you get deceived, or how did he make his predictions so accurate?

Have you figured it out yet?

Think again?

Okay, let me announce the answer

In fact, there is no technical content at all. In the first game, the scammer sent emails to 1,000,000 people, but only 500,000 of them The slow boat team won, of which 500,000 were fired by the second kicker team.

One day later, the results came out. The numbers sent to the second kicking team were ignored, and only the numbers issued to the slow boat wins were continued. The same operation, 250,000 of them were sent to the group fight Xia Sheng , the other half of the team won.

As long as you repeat this operation 8 times, the scammer can get 3906 "perfectly predicted" accounts, and then induce payment again. As long as there is an 80% conversion rate, you can defraud 30 million!

Why would you be fooled? Because you didn't see through the "I'm not special" and "I'm not the protagonist" points, you mistakenly thought that the other party only extended an olive branch to you (or a few people).

The same is true for the understanding of fate. After many bizarre things happen, the person involved will repeatedly ask "Why?", why me and not others?

In fact, there is no reason at all. As long as there are enough samples, no matter how small the probability is, the event will become inevitable. Just when it happens to you, it will be overwhelming, because most people do not realize the probability. Inevitable conflict with one’s own narrow perspective.

So do you believe in fate? They are actually just accidents that inevitably happen