How crazy is the property market?

The cutest person in the world is the agent who chased me and called me to buy a house. A joke tells the truth about the property market in recent years!

According to incomplete statistics, up to now, 45 cities across the country have restricted purchases. In addition to conventional policies such as increasing the area of purchase restriction, increasing the down payment ratio, and extending the time for paying individual tax or social security, China, a brokerage company, found that Beijing, Guangzhou, Xiamen and other cities have introduced unprecedented new policies, and even Linquan County, a national poverty-stricken county in Anhui Province, urgently restricted the purchase of housing prices.

So, what is the root cause of high housing prices? Is the purchase restriction the best way? Will China's real estate market collapse? This paper attempts to answer these three questions. Recently, the news about the purchase restriction has been overwhelming, so I won't list them here.

Interestingly, generally speaking, house prices can reflect the local economic development level to a certain extent, and the purchase restriction policy generally comes from economically developed areas.

However, on March 23, Linquan County, Anhui Province, a national poverty-stricken county, imposed an emergency price limit, and the average price of commercial housing should not exceed 6,000 yuan.

According to the Implementation Opinions on Land Transfer of Commercial Residential Property in Linquan City, the average selling price of commercial residential property in this county in February was 6 143 yuan/m2, up by 28% year-on-year, of which the average commercial price was 10358 yuan/m2 and the average residential price was 5709 yuan/m2.

Compared with housing prices in first-and second-tier cities, housing prices above 6,000 yuan may not be high. However, as a national poverty-stricken county, this figure is somewhat exaggerated.

According to the work report of the county government, in 20 16 years, Linquan County achieved a GDP of1700 million yuan, an increase of 8%; The per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents reached 23 1.70 yuan and 9,380 yuan respectively, up by 7.4% and 9.2% respectively.

Urban residents can buy 4.06 square meters of disposable income a year, while rural residents can only buy 1.64 square meters a year.

Deng Yongheng introduced that he did a study a few years ago and found that the GDP performance and investment in environmental protection during the term of office of local governments were highly correlated with the assessment of local governments. By investigating the promotion of mayors and party secretaries in 283 prefecture-level cities in the past 10, it is found that the promotion probability of mayors and party secretaries has a great positive correlation with their GDP growth performance during their tenure, and GDP growth is driven by the real estate boom.

Tsinghua University China and Li Daokui, director of the World Economic Research Center, said during the two sessions this year that international experience shows that the "root" of real estate is land finance. Local governments control land and earn income through land sales or development. However, in this process, it should be clear that local governments need to set aside enough land revenue to buy or control a number of houses at relatively cheap prices and rent them for a long time to support local economic development.

For a long time, the domestic regulation of the real estate market is mainly achieved by administrative means of restricting purchases. These policies have increased the difficulty of buying a house and curbed speculation to a certain extent, but is it the best way for the government to adopt the regulation policy of restricting purchases on real estate?

Deng Yongheng said that in recent years, China has introduced several sets of "cooling" policies and tracked the effects of these policies. The study found that in many housing markets, more than half of the housing prices rebounded six months after the introduction of the "cooling" policy, which led to higher market prices.

China's policies often have the problem of "one size fits all". The supply of the second-tier housing market exceeds demand, but the national "destocking" policy is also introduced, which leads to overheating of the first-tier real estate market. In fact, this is the same mistake that many international media made when they asked "Will China's housing market collapse?". .

Li Daokui said during the two sessions this year that the real estate market needs a long-term and effective basic mechanism. But so far, only regulatory measures have been taken, such as restricting purchases or adjusting the credit policies of second and third suites, which is not the fundamental solution.

From the perspective of land finance, Li Daokui believes that local governments control land finance on the one hand, but do not own and manage their own real estate on the other, so the real estate problem cannot be solved. Chongqing model is a good exploration, but only part of it has been done. The government only "goes with the market" in land supply, and uses land supply to control land prices. That's not enough. Local governments must also hold a considerable amount of property.

Since last year, the continuous overheating of the real estate market has also aggravated the risk of funds "deviating from reality to emptiness" to a certain extent. In Li Daokui's view, to avoid economic "from reality to reality" should start from two aspects:

The first is "fire". At present, there is a "virtual fire" in the financial industry. At present, many products with rigid payment give investors an illusion that the investment objects of these investment products have low risk, so they are unwilling to directly invest in the real economy.

The second is to reduce costs. After the reform of the camp, the local government's fiscal revenue dropped significantly. In fact, for a long time, local governments have been the main body to promote the development of private economy and help the development of private economy to reduce taxes. Therefore, it is suggested that after the reform of the camp, local governments should be given certain financial and tax rebates to support the private economy. Will China real estate collapse?

Faced with such high housing prices, a large number of people can only "look at the house and sigh." Many people think that high housing prices have their own reasons. The urbanization level of China is far from that of developed countries, so there is no risk of real estate market collapse. But some people think that China can't afford such high housing prices at present.

Deng Yongheng introduced that he had co-authored papers with Professor Jason Wu of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute and Professor Joseph Gyourko of Wharton Business School, studied the situation of 35 major cities in China, covering population growth, unemployment rate, industrial development, economic growth and other factors, and then used models to predict future housing demand.

It is found that there are huge differences between cities, and most first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are in short supply, so the housing prices in these cities are also high. Affected by supply and demand and population factors, first-tier cities also have many fringe benefits, such as educational resources and infrastructure, which are reflected in housing prices. Except for some second-and third-tier cities, the housing market is risky. Deng Yongheng believes that the housing market in first-tier cities is less likely to collapse like the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

Ba Shusong, a professor of finance in peking university hsbc school of business and chief economist of China Banking Association, recently said at the "20 17 Annual Forum" that both housing and loans were indeed regulated on a large scale in history. Judging from historical data, the general market will cool down in the short term.

Ba Shusong believes that the possibility of a real estate crisis in the short term is low, but we should pay attention to local risks. The leverage ratio of Chinese residents may not be so high, but we should pay attention to this risk. Compared with foreign mature economies, China has the advantage of low debt ratio of residents, but it also has the disadvantage of small accumulated wealth and relatively weak ability to bear debts.