The automobile industry "under the epidemic": Hold on, there is hope

The house leaked and it rained all night.

An epidemic has once again made the automobile industry, which was already in a "cold winter", even worse.

"Wuhan closed down", "isolated at home", "delayed resumption of work"... hot words during the epidemic indicate that the auto market in 2020 will become more "southern".

Recently, IHS Markit, a global provider of important information, analysis and solutions, predicts that in the first quarter of 2020, China's automobile production will decline by 10%.

Now, IHS Markit has made a new judgment: With the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, confirmed cases have appeared around the world, and the disease is spreading very quickly, so it may cause long-term factory shutdowns. The shutdown will even last until mid-March, which will lead to a reduction in China's automobile production by more than 1.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%.

Auto production and sales, press the pause button

On January 23, Wuhan was locked down.

A major "epidemic" swept the country at the beginning of the new year.

Hubei is the center of the outbreak. It also plays an important role in China's automobile industry, contributing nearly 9% of China's automobile production capacity.

In Wuhan, there is an avenue called Dongfeng Avenue, which is 13 kilometers long, but there are nearly 20,000 companies gathered along it. These include 7 complete vehicle companies, 12 automobile assembly plants, more than 500 parts companies, and 54 "Fortune 500 companies." ?Now, affected by the epidemic, all car companies, parts suppliers and related factories in Wuhan may be in a shutdown period.

According to Feilv Motors, on January 26, DPCA took the lead in issuing relevant announcements on delaying the resumption of production and work. Subsequently, car companies within the Dongfeng Motor system, as well as car companies such as Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Renault, etc. It has also announced that it will postpone the resumption of work until after February 9, 2020.

In fact, the impact of the epidemic on automobile production is not limited to Hubei Province. "Delaying the resumption of work" has become a decision of automobile manufacturers in many places across the country.

Tesla expects that the resumption of work at the Shanghai factory will be delayed by a week or a week and a half.

In addition, Ford's factories in Hangzhou and Chongqing also responded to the local government's call to extend the Spring Festival holiday to prevent the spread of the epidemic.

It can be said that this "war epidemic" has caused many large car companies to press the "pause button."

The current round of shutdowns caused by the epidemic will have a huge impact on both Wuhan and the national automobile industry.

Aptiv, a multinational parts and components company, said that the extension of the holiday will lead to a 15% reduction in China's automobile production in the first quarter, and the annual production decline will be around 3%.

Sig Huber, former global director of FCA's purchasing department, said: "If the shutdown is extended, production interruptions may occur in other regions around the world."

Now, some parts companies have begun to look for As an alternative, F-Tech, the supplier of brake pedals for Honda CR-V, announced on January 30 that it would transfer production from the Wuhan factory to the Philippines factory because the production capacity here is not only responsible for supplying to China, but also for supplying to Japan. , so the suspension of production has a great impact, and Philippine factories will also increase production capacity to cope with it.

In addition to the disruption to production plans, the sales side is also facing a direct impact.

Dealers are a relatively fragile link in the current automobile industry. The market decline since the second half of 2018 has caused dealers to experience a more rapid and cruel reshuffle than the OEMs. Many businesses have hesitated. On the verge of life and death.

For them, this epidemic is not only adding insult to injury, but also adding ice to frost.

The repeatedly delayed business hours have created a serious inversion with the operating costs borne by the company. "Being unable to make ends meet" seems to have become the "keyword" for car dealers in the first quarter.

Many people believe that the car sales data in January and February this year will be "disappointing".

A research report on "Analysis of the Impact of the New Pneumonia Epidemic on Automobiles" by Soochow Securities stated that the epidemic and the delay in starting labor caused the overall production and sales of the automobile industry to decline from January to February, and the probability of production being lower than sales is greater, and the industry as a whole The destocking phase will continue.

Some insiders pointed out, “Only when the epidemic is under control, sales will gradually recover, but overall, the sales volume of the auto market will be further ‘suppressed’ this year. It was originally expected that the decline will stop in 2020. But it’s very difficult to see now.”

The car buying boom under SARS is difficult to happen

Will the car market be more difficult in 2020?

Seventeen years ago, faced with the sudden SARS (SARS) virus, everyone lived in hesitation and uneasiness, but SARS gave the Chinese auto market a "stimulant" shot.

Feilv Auto's data shows that in 2003, automobile production and sales were 4.4437 million units and 4.3908 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and 34.21%.

“The SARS epidemic prompted some people to be more willing to buy private cars and reduce contact with the public as much as possible.” It is reported that in April of that year, the average transaction rate of 4S stores in Beijing could reach 80%, far exceeding the previous 20~30. The scene at the terminal is that "cars can be sold as long as they are in the showroom. Like masks and disinfectants, cars have suddenly become a hot commodity."

"Although the epidemic may also play a role Similar effects, but unlikely to repeat the auto market situation in 2003," an industry insider pointed out.

Compared with 17 years ago, China's economic situation and the situation of the automobile consumer market are completely different. This epidemic may not be an "unexpected hand" in promoting automobile consumption like the "SARS" of that year.

At that time, China's economy was maintaining a rapid growth rate of 10%, and China's automobile consumer market was in an unprecedented period of growth that would be difficult to see again in the future.

However, at the beginning of 2020, my country's auto market has experienced a cold winter period that has lasted for more than a year. Saturation of market demand is one of the reasons. The overall trend of the auto market is a sales decline environment with a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. Therefore, from a macro level, it is difficult for the auto market to achieve significant growth in sales under the epidemic environment.

This epidemic is destined to make China’s auto market even worse.

From the current perspective, some car companies with low risk resistance are likely to withdraw from the competition; for some new car companies, the delay in financing windows caused by the spread of the disease is a heavy blow. .

In addition, not only new car transactions, but also upstream and downstream parts, second-hand cars, and dealer systems, as well as start-ups in travel, autonomous driving, and Internet of Vehicles technologies, will all go through this process. pass.

However, everything has two sides, just like a coin has two sides, and the epidemic will also be a double-edged sword for the auto market.

After the epidemic, a new round of comprehensive strength competition will begin among car companies, and the industry reshuffle process will also be promoted. By then, the Chinese auto market, which has completed a survival of the fittest, will usher in healthier development.

As Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Automobile, once said: If there is some snow in winter, the wheat will grow better next year.

In addition, any market also leaves new opportunities.

For example, the "SARS" battle 17 years ago gave birth to JD.com and Taobao. For the automobile industry, Internet-based marketing methods such as automobile e-commerce and new retail may once again receive attention.

NIO stated that they will make some targeted adjustments in marketing, such as communicating with users online through social platforms such as live broadcasts. Although it is difficult for these online marketing activities to bring significant increases, brand marketing in special periods is still an attempt.

“It doesn’t matter whether you sell or not, the main thing is to relieve the tense atmosphere; it doesn’t matter whether you buy or not, the main thing is to give you the feeling of going shopping.” Xia Qinghua, general manager of NIO Shanghai Regional Company, live broadcast in WeChat Moments wrote in the notice.

SAIC Volkswagen and GAC Trumpchi seem to have "sniffed" this change in the trend, and have successively launched "3D interactive car selection", "VR car viewing" and other related functions online, trying to take the lead in this period of time Gather popularity and "gather momentum" for future sales.

The exploration of such a diversified marketing model is undoubtedly a useful attempt to find a new approach for the auto market, which is currently in a period of adjustment.

Of course, under the epidemic, holding on means everything.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.