Document No.1 of the Central Committee of China * * *: Vigorously implement the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project.

In 222, the No.1 Document of the Central Committee of China * * * pointed out that it was necessary to vigorously implement the soybean and oilseed production capacity improvement project. Increase subsidies for farmland rotation and incentives for oil-producing counties, focus on supporting suitable regions, key varieties and business service subjects, promote corn and soybean strip compound planting in Huang-Huai-Hai, northwest and southwest regions, carry out grain-soybean rotation in northeast region, promote pilot projects of changing water into drought and rice into beans in some groundwater overexploitation areas and well-irrigated rice areas in cold regions of Heilongjiang Province, and develop winter fallow fields in the Yangtze River basin to expand rape planting. Carry out demonstration of planting soybeans in saline-alkali land. The general theme in 222 is to expand the soybean planting area. At present, it is the harvest period of soybean. We went to Qiqihar City, Heilongjiang Province to learn about the changes of soybean planting area, yield, quality and subsidy implementation around this year.

in terms of planting area, in 222, under the background of "expanding beans", the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang increased obviously. During this investigation, it was learned that the planting proportion of soybeans and corn in some areas was 5%: 5% last year, but this year the planting proportion of soybeans and corn was 7%: 3%. Two-thirds of the plots around Baiquan County planted soybeans, and only one-third planted corn. The planting area of soybeans in Kedong County has increased this year. Last year, the planting proportion of soybeans and corn was 35%: 65%, while in 222, the planting proportion of soybeans and corn was 65%: 35%. On the whole, the soybean area around Heilongjiang increased by about 3%. In 222, the yield was slightly lower than the same period of last year, and the yield of different varieties was different. The yield of Dongsheng series was 3-35 kg/mu, and some high-yield areas could reach 4-43 kg/mu. Longdou 3, a representative early-maturing variety, has a yield of 46-5 kg/mu.

in terms of soybean quality, the general protein content of soybeans this year is low, which is 2-3 percentage points lower than that of last year. This year, soybean protein is generally 37%-38%, and more than 39% of protein is considered as high-quality soybeans, while last year, protein was generally above 39-4%. In addition, the grain size is small, and the proportion of large grains is about 1%. Last year, the proportion of large grains could reach 3-4%. This is mainly due to the drought and lack of rain in Heilongjiang this year, which leads to the low overall protein content, and the protein content of late-harvested soybeans may be improved, but the expected improvement is limited, and the overall protein content is low or a foregone conclusion. However, this year's soybean dryness is better, and the current moisture content is 11%-12%. It is expected that the price difference between high-protein soybeans and general commercial soybeans will expand in the later period.

This year, the planting cost has been greatly increased, and the main increase is the land rent, which is expected to increase by 2-3 yuan per mu, and the rent is about 7-8 yuan per mu. The increase of land rent in some areas is more obvious, from 5-6 yuan/mu last year to 8-9 yuan/mu this year. The cost of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has increased by about 3%-4%. In addition, due to the rising oil price, the harvesting cost per mu is expected to rise from around 3 yuan in 221 to around 5 yuan. The total cost is about 15, yuan/soil moisture, and the cost of the farm will be slightly higher due to more detailed management. Due to the obvious increase in planting cost this year, farmers' intention to sell grain at low prices was general at the beginning of listing because of the consideration of planting cost.

in terms of planting subsidies, during the planting period this spring, the state encouraged to plant more soybeans, and farmers expected higher subsidies for soybeans. However, the actual basic producer subsidy was the same as last year, which was 248 yuan/mu, and did not increase. In some areas, farmers did not enjoy rotation subsidies because of their small planting area.

in terms of downstream demand, soybeans are mainly sent to Shandong, Liaoning, Beijing, Guangdong, Guangxi and bean products processing plants. From the understanding of several enterprises, the overall shipments showed a downward trend. Due to the high price of soybeans, the substitution of imported soybeans and the impact of the epidemic, some adzuki bean products factories were facing closure, and the downstream demand of soybeans was not ideal. In view of the generally low soybean protein, we also inquired about the acceptance of the downstream demand side of traders. Traders reported that the demand side was weak in 221, but enterprises like dried tofu and yuba had to purchase northeast yellow soybeans. The demand side may wait and see at the beginning of the listing of new grain, and then passively accept it gradually or gradually.

In terms of purchase price, the soybean in Lunhe Town, Hailun was listed on September 6th, which was too early and the price was too high. The purchase price of crude grain was 3.-3.15 yuan. During the investigation in other regions, soybeans were not listed or were in the initial stage of listing, and the estimated price of crude grain was 2.8-2.9 yuan/kg, so the overall price would not be too high. At present, the research enterprises are less involved in the current operation, mainly in spot trade. Because they are not very confident about the market price this year, most enterprises do not intend to hoard soybeans, mainly selling them with the harvest.

respondents' views on the market outlook: Although the yield per unit area is slightly lower than last year, the overall yield has increased by 2-2.5 million tons due to the large area increase this year, which increases or limits the space above the soybean price in the later period. However, the planting cost has increased significantly this year. If the price is too low, farmers may be reluctant to sell, which will also give some support to the price. In addition, if the price is too low, it will also dampen farmers' enthusiasm for planting in the coming year, so it is expected that the space below the soybean price will be limited. The purchase price of the national reserve has a great influence on the price, and we will pay attention to the acquisition of the national reserve in the later period.

the author believes that under the encouragement of the policy in 222, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, and the overall output growth is expected to be 2-2.5 million tons. However, the demand side is not ideal under the influence of high prices and epidemic situation, and the overall supply and demand have further improved, and the price of soybean 1 lacks the motivation to further increase in the later period. With the centralized harvesting and listing of soybeans, the price of soybean may be under pressure. Pay attention to the purchasing and storage policy in the later period.

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