There is another change of commander in the Russian battlefield. Is the situation urgent or does it require a big move?

Russia and Ukraine were fighting fiercely in the Donetsk region. Russia suddenly made a new appointment - Gerasimov became the commander-in-chief of the special military operations joint force. The previous commander-in-chief Sulovykin and the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army Commander Salyukov and Deputy Chief of General Staff Kim *** both serve as deputy commander-in-chief.

Why do you change coaches on the spot?

Changing coaches before the battle is often called a taboo for military strategists, because some major changes may cause insufficient mutual understanding and lead to low morale. Moreover, this is another coaching change in Russia.

During the period when Sulovykin, known as the "Doomsday General", was in command, the Russian army obviously gained tactical cohesion and stabilized its frontline strength. So why did Sulovykin need to be suddenly replaced?

The main reason is the major changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

1. In the battle at Soledal, Russia had the advantage. Although Russia claims full control and Ukraine firmly denies it, information revealed by the Russian "Wagner" mercenary group, the British Ministry of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Defense is that a "large part" of Soledal has fallen into Russian hands.

Controlling Soledal will, on the one hand, cut off the direct supply line between Bakhmut and Seversk. On the other hand, the Russian army will surround Bakhmut’s Ukrainian army and open up a link between Slavyansk and Seversk. Kramatorsk road, and then promote the offensive in the direction of Kharkov.

Under such a situation, the Russian army needs to liberate Sulovykin. During the conflict, Sulovykin demonstrated military capabilities, capable of fighting tough battles, and was also good at strategic command. The casualty rate of his troops was much lower than that of other Russian troops. Using his tactical command ability, the army he commands in a certain direction can become a more mobile "sharp blade".

2. At the beginning of the new year, the United States and Western countries, which were originally weak in aiding Ukraine, began to provide a steady stream of military aid and weapons, and this time many countries provided combat vehicles and tanks. France "crossed the red line and broke the military taboo" and took the lead in announcing aid to Ukraine with the AMX-10RC armored fighting vehicle. This tank is mostly classified as a "light tank" in the outside world. Germany, which has been gritting its teeth and not letting go, also announced a plan to assist Ukraine with 40 "Weasel" tanks and complete the delivery before the end of March. The United States, a major aid provider to Ukraine, not only wants to assist the "Patriot" anti-missile and air defense system, but also announced the most valuable assistance plan since the outbreak of the conflict, including the provision of "Bradley" infantry fighting vehicles. The United Kingdom is also following suit, preparing Provide "Challenger 2" heavy main battle tank.

The West’s assistance to Ukrainian combat vehicles and tanks will make the Russian-Ukrainian ground offensive more intense. The arrival of these Western tanks will have a great impact on the battlefield situation after the beginning of spring. Therefore, the Russian army has changed its commander again to speed up the progress and prepare in advance to respond to these higher-level military aids.

3. Recently, news has spread that Russia is preparing to mobilize another 500,000 new troops after recruiting 300,000 troops, which will greatly increase the Russian frontline strength. At the same time, Putin has led people to inspect military industrial enterprises many times, and even issued decrees requiring military industrial enterprises to ensure that they can produce more weapons and equipment to arm more troops, and that the strike force against Ukraine will not be wasted. It’s over, I have to fight more and more.

As a result, the increase in soldiers and military lines requires new overall arrangements. The temporary change of commanders has made a clearer division of labor: the new commander-in-chief Gerasimov can use the long-range aviation force that has not been fully included before. , Navy, General Staff Intelligence Bureau, Salyukov is responsible for organizing personnel training, Kim is responsible for formulating combat plans, and Sulovykin continues to command the troops in the special military operations area.

4. With the fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine, it has become very difficult to replenish the resources of the Ukrainian army. Due to huge personnel losses, Ukraine has added a large number of female soldiers after the tenth round of conscription. However, in order to maintain this This situation of confrontation and consumption does not rule out the large-scale intervention of NATO soldiers in the form of mercenaries. Therefore, the Russian army is also rapidly accelerating its strength improvement to prevent the situation from becoming more passive and simply strike first to gain strength.

Extended reading:

Media: Another change of commander in the Russian army is considered to be putting the Russian Chief of General Staff on the fire

Direct news: Russian Defense The ministry announced on Wednesday that the commander-in-chief of the military operation against Ukraine has been replaced again, and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov will take over. Mr. Guan, what are your observations on this?

Special commentator Guan Yao: Russia’s latest military appointment is obviously led by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Of course, it will definitely obtain the consent of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This means a change in the command level of military operations in Ukraine. Significant improvement. The original commander Sulovykin, known as the "Doomsday General", and his predecessors who were replaced this time were basically at the level of commanders of theaters or military services. A relevant statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense gave three main explanations for the improvement of hierarchical commander-in-chief changes in military command: first, the command needs for the expansion and upgrading of military tasks; second, the need for coordinated command of theater services and arms; third, the improvement of front-line military supplies and supply guarantees Efficient command is needed.

However, there are two potential messages worth paying attention to in this coaching change itself: First, the top brass of the Russian military and even the Russian president himself are not satisfied with the progress of the military operation. Especially on the first day of the New Year, a Russian military camp in Ukraine was attacked by a Haimas rocket launcher assisted by the U.S. military and suffered the largest battle damage since the special military operation against Ukraine. Russia said that 89 officers and soldiers were killed, while Ukraine The number of casualties reported by the side is as high as several hundred people. Previously, the Russian army retreated from the vicinity of Kharkov, especially from the occupied city of Kherson. The top brass of the Russian army encountered rare domestic criticism. Two of the harshest critics were fighting on the front line. They were Russian mercenaries. Prigozin, the head of the Wagner Group, a military organization, and Kazanrov, the president of the Russian Chechen Republic. The latter even attacked Russian commanders by name after the Russian army retreated from Kharkov in September last year. General Lapin's command was incompetent and should be dismissed immediately, while Gerasimov "blindly defended his subordinates' shortcomings" and should also be held accountable.

Secondly, despite being under comprehensive pressure and facing difficulties in military operations, Shoigu was still able to lead the military camp’s coaching change, which means that at least at this stage, the top brass of the Russian military, including senior generals, can still gain the trust and trust of President Putin. Authorization. A detailed signal is that although Major General Lapin suffered a defeat in Kharkov, he was just promoted to the frontline commander of the military operation against Ukraine last week. So in this sense, the adjustment of the "Doomsday General" from the frontline commander to the number one deputy commander-in-chief may not be considered an accountability demotion, because the highest-ranking general in the military has come to take command. Of course, the command pressure is now being transmitted to Gerasimov, and some military bloggers even believe that this is the latest appointment to put the Russian Chief of General Staff on the fire.

Direct News: Why is Gerasimov considered to be roasting on the fire when he becomes the frontline commander?

Special commentator Guan Yao: Together with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Gerasimov is recognized as one of the main strategic designers and executors of Russia’s military operations against Ukraine. Gerasimov's name is no stranger to the United States and the West. Last year, the Russian army held a Victory Day military parade. This was a display of military power after the Russian army launched a special military operation against Ukraine. It attracted widespread attention from the outside world. However, as the top military commander of the Russian army, , Gerasimov was rarely absent. At that time, there were widespread rumors in the US and Western media that Gerasimov might have been injured in an attack when he went to the front line of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to inspect and supervise the war. Of course, this speculation has not been confirmed by Russia. Just last month, the US media also broke the news that after the US intelligence system intercepted Gerasimov's frontline operations supervision information, it did not report it to Ukraine. Especially after learning that Ukraine had unilaterally obtained the information, the US once put pressure to prevent it. Ukraine took action because it was worried that the conflict would explode and escalate. This also confirmed from another aspect that the so-called "injury theory" was by no means groundless.

The top military commander of the Russian army walked to the frontline command podium, and of course he had to prove himself with results. This also attracted much attention to the so-called "Spring Offensive" that has been rumored for a long time in the media. An immediate observation indicator is whether the Russian army can achieve a breakthrough in its nearly two-month tug-of-war offensive against Bakhmut. Prigozin, the head of the Wagner Group who has always questioned Gerasimov, has announced that his mercenaries have taken Soledar, a small town near Bahmut. On Tuesday, he once again tweeted to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense, bragging about his battlefield experience, " Far better than those who have been in the Department of Defense for decades."

For this reason, Mark Galeotti, a senior observer in London who is familiar with Russian security affairs, even tweeted yesterday that Gerasimov's appointment as frontline commander is actually a "demotion" and a so-called promotion, because his military career will be very short. To a large extent, life hangs on a thread, depending on the advancement and performance of the Russian army on the front lines of the battlefield.

Direct News: So what does Gerasimov’s latest appointment mean for the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Special commentator Guan Yao: "General Doom" Sulovykin has maintained command of military operations for three months. Now it is difficult for the outside world to predict how long Gerasimov will be able to command. But what can be expected is that there may not be much time left for Gerasimov. Just on Wednesday, Russian television broadcast a pre-recorded video meeting between the Russian president and officials. There was a rare scene that shocked the outside world. Putin directly interrupted the speech of Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and In the subsequent defense, he bluntly said that the other party should not "fool fools". When reporting on this scene, many Western media used statements similar to that of Putin being unable to suppress his anger. For example, the title of yesterday's Reuters telegram said, "Putin Loses It." In this video conference that made Putin lose his temper, Putin also talked about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He emphasized that all issues related to the special military operation against Ukraine must be resolved as soon as possible. Previously, after Putin met with a group of mothers of soldiers who died on the front line and had an in-depth conversation with them, he ordered Shoigu on January 2 to produce a detailed report on the supply of military supplies to the Russian army on the front line, and to provide details on armament details and the improvement of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The work lists specific improvement measures.

As the Russian Ministry of Defense pointed out in the statement, the three urgent tasks faced by Gerasimov after taking office as the frontline commander, including strengthening the coordination of services and arms, strengthening frontline combat command, etc., can all be considered at the highest level. The rank and authority of the military generals are used to push forward, but the third item is the so-called improvement of frontline military supplies and combat readiness. Even if Gerasimov is the chief of the Russian Army’s General Staff, he may feel quite powerless, and it is expected that it will be difficult to make concrete decisions in the short term. sexual improvement. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has passed the New Year and will celebrate its anniversary next month. Military conflicts have increasingly evolved into wars of attrition and systemic capabilities. However, an army’s armament consumption and ability to ensure supply include the countries behind it that provide comprehensive support. System capabilities cannot be achieved by fighting alone. This is probably the biggest challenge and dilemma faced by Gerasimov and his former commanders-in-chief. It should also be pointed out that as the Ukrainian army enters the new year, it is also facing a new battlefield situation and external environment. Western powers such as the United States, France, and the United States have announced that they will provide military assistance for a series of heavy-duty vehicles including Bradley fighting vehicles and AMX-10RC light tanks. In terms of equipment, senior Ukrainian army commanders have also boasted that as long as they can get 400 heavy tanks, 500 to 600 infantry fighting vehicles, and 300 artillery pieces, Ukraine can win the battlefield. So looking at it this way, Russia and Ukraine have greater motivation to try to break the status quo on the battlefield in the New Year. This also means that the next spring offensive by both sides will escalate again, regardless of the scale of the war or the degree of bloody cruelty.

Author丨Guan Yao, special commentator of Shenzhen TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

Editor丨Zeng Zijin, chief editor of Shenzhen TV's direct news