Counselor's Community: The Real Profit Mode of Contract Trading —— A Turning Distance

Seriously provide high-quality articles for friends in the currency circle. What professional investors can use to summarize the articles on the rise and fall of the currency circle? Trying to keep up with the market? Constantly surpass yourself, currency circle analyst counselor Lao Wang

For all the people who enter this market, no one comes with the purpose of losing money. However, 90% of people left with losses, or even broke positions. Is it really that difficult to become a master of currency contract trading? Is the road to listing really as difficult as the road to Shu, and is it difficult to go to the sky? Success or failure in a monetary contract has nothing to do with a person's education, IQ, diligence and principal, but with his understanding and execution.

If you are smart enough, the distance between you and a master of currency contracts is actually a turning distance. If we must describe the true meaning of monetary contract in one sentence, I want to say that monetary contract is the art of drifting with the flow. "Find trends and follow them." Coin circle contract is such a simple thing. There is another sentence that is also very important. Let's talk about it: everything goes in when everything is ready, and leaves when the wind blows.

Find the trend and follow it. The first step is how to find the trend accurately.

First of all, what is the trend? The fluctuation of price either forms a trend or an interval. This has formed the so-called trend city and consolidation city. In a trendy city, fashion is an irresistible impulse. Don't try to stop it.

People in different realms treat trends differently: novices can't understand trends; Veterans like to predict trends; The master just follows the trend.

From the perspective of time cycle: in the medium and long-term operation, the trend of the weekly line represents the general trend of the medium and long-term line, which is not controlled by the banker, but determined by the fundamentals. If you don't understand the fundamentals of the US dollar index, crude oil and copper, don't do long-term operations. The daily line can look at the short-term trend within a week to a month; If you can understand it, you can become a master overnight. Hour line, fifteen-minute line and five-minute line are compasses for intraday trading. If you focus on day trading, you don't need to look at the fundamentals, you just need to strictly implement your trading system. Of course, the premise is that you have a high probability trading system that can stand the test of time and market, and strike hard when you see the trend.

Coin contract is a condensed life. For some people, all love and hate, success and failure, joy and sadness come from this. But for successful people, currency circle contract is a happy job. The money market is also a friendly place for yourself.

Of course, we can see a higher level trend for the monthly and seasonal lines, but for ordinary people, this time frame spans too much and has little reference significance for their own operations. The general trend above the monthly line should be the general trend that needs to be considered in the transactions of large funds such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan. Looking at the medium and long-term trend, the weekly line is enough.

All trends are based on a certain time frame. Talking about trends without a specific time frame is like castles in the air.

The so-called follow-up is the seven words mentioned in chaos theory-want what the market wants. The so-called going against the trend is the eight words mentioned in chaos theory-want what the market doesn't want.

As far as the elements of the trading system I rely on are concerned, the core of technical analysis lies in two aspects: first, the trend vibration in each time period; Second: deviation and breakthrough. Understand the * * * vibration, deviation, breakthrough these six words, you will understand the essence of technical analysis.

Some people are blind in one leaf. He entered the market with a big cycle trend, but fell in a small cycle trend. There is no time for * * * vibration, which is by no means a natural trend. Some people are familiar with deviation, but they don't understand that there is a top deviation above the top deviation and a bottom deviation below the bottom deviation. Deviation will be useless if we leave the breakthrough.

What suits you is the best. Some people like to speculate that seconds and minutes are the time base; Some people like intraday trading, taking the minute line and the hour line as the time benchmark; Some people like overnight, but they can't get an order for more than a week; Some people are experts in fundamental analysis and trading, no more than three times a year. Everyone has his own clock.

All large-scale reversals are bound to deviate. But deviation itself does not mean the inevitability of reversal. Deviation only represents the weakening of the original trend, not the turning point. However, if the deviation is verified by the trend breakthrough at the same time, it is a trading opportunity with a greater chance of winning. The essence of the profit and loss of the currency circle contract lies in the odds. A big profit plus a small loss is a profit.

If I don't make subjective assumptions, you are a fundamental analyst. I am a technical analyst, or a fundamental technical analyst. Again, what suits you is the best, and stable profit is king.

There are three treasures in speculative trading: good mentality, good vision and good technology. To become a master of one tenth, there must be at least two of these three treasures. Mentality represents the power to make your heart stable; Vision represents the thinking ability, trend analysis and speculative ability of macroeconomics and basic concepts; Technology represents computing power and the ability to judge the quantity and price of specific varieties in time and space.

Those who have determination, thinking and calculating ability are the masters. How much ability do you have?

It is common to see right and wrong. Large-scale trends see the trend enter the market, and small-scale fluctuations are forced to stop losses. This is a matter of mentality and vision. My brother once said to me, which is still shocking today: everyone can understand the big market and trends, but whether it can be done right or not is completely another matter. This is human nature. You must be superman. Superman here is superior.

After reaching a certain level, technology is only a tool, and spiritual experience is the direction. Understanding and cultivation are far more important than technology itself.

Coin circle contract is a condensed life, which magnifies the greed and fear of human nature ten times and one hundred times. In this speculative market where most people are doomed to lose money, there is no reliable trading system, and what is more important is the execution of the trading system itself. What we end up trading is not price, but faith.

A successful speculator must have his own unique success. People who fail in the speculative market do not need any reason. This is human nature. There is actually only one turning distance between the master and the low hand. But most people will never cross it. Not in IQ, not in technology, but in mind and understanding.

The core of currency circle contract trading is that you have a chance to win when you sell it. Currency contract trading is a game of probability. Go in when everything is ready, and leave without an accident. Even before the high odds enter the market, there should be a stop loss to prevent possible misjudgment. What is the reason for the existence of high winning rate trading? In some specific technical graphics, some graphics have a strong trend of ups and downs and great inertia. The purpose of technical analysis is to cultivate a pair of golden eyes, which can find out trading opportunities with high winning rate in countless cheating operations. Because, no matter big bookmakers or retail investors, only buying low and selling high can make money. No one can make money by buying high and selling low. The banker can create countless scams and design traps that cannot be prevented, but he can only make a profit by buying low and selling high.

For each transaction itself, the difference between more and less is not the price, but the belief. The same price, some people are bullish, some people are bearish, and they are always in balance. The key to profit is, what time period do you follow? And whether you are in the same direction as the trend. The root cause of the loss is nothing more than three situations:

(1) the same in and out of the transaction, the trend fluctuations in different time periods are confused. Many times, it is right or wrong.

(2) misjudge the trend. This is an example of doing something wrong.

(3) Habitual naked swimming, without any stop loss trading.

Dow theory is the source of all technical analysis, which provides more philosophical guidance than technical analysis itself. Many people can understand it, but they can't. His generosity, broad mind and broad vision make my life by going up one flight of stairs. For example, an enterprising woman makes a man move not by his chest, but by his chest.

If there is a technology with a 100% chance of winning, I think it is a god, not a person. Currency contract trading is just a probability game. Turn the transaction into a simple standard action. It seems easy to do, but it is actually difficult to do. It's easier said than done, that's all. For a simple analogy, don't short above the moving average, and don't do much below the moving average. Everyone understands this truth. But most people don't have the patience. I looked in the right direction, but went in the wrong direction, so I was knocked down by the inertia of the trend. For example, rebar has risen from 3,600 to 5,000,4200 points, and many people are short-selling, and now it is back to the short position of 3,600,4200. How much should they earn? Don't go against the trend, don't predict the market, and don't try to outsmart the market.

What you urgently need to reflect on is not the profit and loss of this order, but the big problem of your trading system? If you can't even overcome the bad habit of bargain hunting, then you are far more than one turn away from the master? In my opinion, if you do more, you should wait until the 7-day moving average level off, and then you can copy it with a little technical content.

After a long talk, let's talk about something technical. I think the time structure of technical analysis can be handled as follows: (1) delimit the fluctuation range with the weekly line; Judging the trading trend through the daily line; Select the entry point and departure point through the hour line and minute line. The above is the overnight time structure. If it is done in a day, the changes are as follows: delimit the fluctuation range with the daily line; 60 minutes combined with 15 minutes to judge the trading trend; Use the 5-minute line to select the entry point and exit point.

The moving average can talk; Trends always appear clearly within a certain time frame, but we lack of discovery. Deviation and trend breakthrough verification are trading opportunities with high odds. Always enter the market when the volume is abnormally enlarged, but stand on the side of the strong trend.

Trend theory violates the principle of buying high and selling low? I thought it was all wet? In the uptrend, fall back to the uptrend line to see more and do more. You can close your position at the upper pressure level, but don't short it. In the downtrend, go up to the downtrend line and short. You can close your position at the lower support level, but it is not advisable to do more. Why is homeopathic trading against the principle? Choose varieties with stable trends and make orders in the direction with strong trends. When you can't see the trend clearly, look for the trend in another time period. Change your structure until it is highly consistent with the market structure.

Trends always exist objectively within a certain time frame. Find and determine the trend direction, from long period to short period. The weekly line can't find the trend, look for the past line. The daily line can't find the trend, look for the hourly line; The hourly line can't find the trend, find the minute line.

Trends always exist objectively, but there is a lack of discovery. We can't change the trend, but we can find the trend and adapt to it.

As far as technology itself is concerned, it is sometimes better to know clearly that losses are better than to make money in a muddle.

Randomness and emotionality are two fatal factors in trading.

The probability depends on the inertia of the trend. Choose to enter the market when a strong trend inertia is formed, and the odds will increase.

Coin circle contract is the art of drifting. Going with the flow is a passive choice, and we always stand in the direction of being friends with the trend; Flow-by-flow is an active choice, and we can choose stable varieties and varieties with strong inertia.

One step ahead, two thousand gold. I think predicting the market is something that God can do, and following the market is something that mortals can do.

The simpler the trading system, the better. Simple things are used to the extreme, that is, masters. Do simple things a thousand times, and make it an excellent habit to integrate into yourself. Abandon self, transcend human nature and return to nature.