Is the fund "blocked" the right time for arbitrage? why

Tell me about my experience of arbitrage from closing position to opening position:

1) Choose the right timing for arbitrage.

1. I don't know the future trend of the stock market in my mind, and I don't know the future ups and downs, but I feel that it is more likely to rise. At this time, I will participate in the arbitrage of closing and opening positions, otherwise I will hold high-quality lof or etf. By the way, the lof base here is: lof funds are open-end funds that can be bought and sold like stocks and purchased and redeemed like ordinary open-end funds.

2. If you really want to buy 1 yuan/serving of new chicken, you might as well buy the old cover before opening it, because at least the cover you bought can be used as a protective pad at a certain discount rate! At the same time, closed-end to open-end funds have their past performance as a reference, and everyone can be targeted when choosing. Compared with the new fund without any historical performance, both the operation level of the fund manager and the running-in of the fund investment and research team have obvious advantages. Closed-end to open-end fund closed-end period If the market rises, you will win at the starting line. After participating in the closed-to-open fund, it can also be kept for a long time without arbitrage when it is redeemed.

3. Mid-term rising market is not suitable for arbitrage.

Let's take a look at three key links in the success of arbitrage:

& lt 1 & gt； Date of termination of registration of listed interests:

Decide whether to take part in closing and opening positions. After buying, you can't buy or sell until it is declared redeemable. There is a certain liquidity risk.

Split date of the old back cover of<2>:

It initially decided the success or failure of this arbitrage, because after the split date, the new and old funds and stocks will merge. The old bases that have recently expired are generally relatively small, generally 500 million-654.38+500 million. Among them, 500 million is the largest, and the amount raised again after the fund is closed is 654.38+0 billion-654.38+0.5 billion. Compared with the newly raised new fund (cash) of more than 65.438 billion yuan, the old closed stock position is very low (only 3%-654.38+00%), so after the split,

& lt3> Commencement date of redemption of new capital:

This will ultimately determine your profit-loss ratio in this liquidation to liquidation arbitrage. Whether to redeem or continue to hold in the future is no longer a strict closed-to-open arbitrage, which will not be discussed here for the time being. From the above, we can see that after the split date, Xinkaiji still has a closed opening period of about one month, and at this time, Xinkaiji's stock position is relatively light. If it happens to catch up with the continuous rise of the market, everyone will miss a profit.

& lt4>'s mid-term decline is not suitable for arbitrage.

Due to the continuous adjustment of the stock market, the discount rate of 5% can only be slowed down, and losses cannot be avoided. Therefore, it is best to wait and see at this time and consider playing new shares! For example, when my closing order was transferred to the fourth order: Fengji Longyuan (1847 10) was transferred to Jinan Longyuan (202007), I bought Longyuan at a discount rate of 5%, but it just happened to catch up with the stock market adjustment, and it was worse than 1 0.

& lt5> Now the focus of everything comes together:

Can you judge the medium-term trend of the stock market? If so, how to judge? How accurate is it? After writing my personal experience of buying basic investment, I will continue to write my experience of stock trading, please wait!

(2) advantages and disadvantages of closed arbitrage

1. Advantages of closed arbitrage

& lt 1 & gt； Dividends: Compared with new funds, closed-end to open-end funds can get extra dividends. Many closed-end to open-end funds give dividends to old holders no more than 1.5% a year at most. At the same time, if it is held for more than two years, the redemption fee will be exempted, which directly reduces the investment cost.

For example, my second order: Ji Feng Jingbo (184695) was transferred to Jida Dacheng Innovation (050008), and the fund manager promised to provide 0.5% fund share compensation on the basis of its original Jingbo fund share from the day when the fund opened for daily subscription and redemption. Moreover, from the day when Dacheng Innovation Growth Fund opened its daily subscription and redemption (i.e. July 18, 2007), the holders who have held Dacheng Innovation Growth Fund shares have been transformed from the original Jingbo Fund shares for three months.

& lt2> dividend income. Before closed-end funds are converted into open-end funds, most of them will choose to distribute the realized income to the holders in the form of cash dividends, and the discount rate of closed-end funds will increase after dividends.

For example, my second order was transferred from Ji Feng Jingbo (184695) to Jida Dacheng Innovation (050008), and the date of termination of listing was June 12, 2007, and the registration date of termination of listing right was June1kloc-0/2007. Meanwhile, in June 2007,

& lt3> Compared with the old funds, the risk of closed-end funds is lower. On the one hand, closed-end funds that are about to expire generally still have a certain discount rate. Even if there is a sharp correction in the market, they still have one more "safety mat" than the old funds. On the other hand, the original holder's share of closed-end funds will be merged with the new subscription share, which will greatly enrich the disposable cash in the hands of fund managers and reduce the risks accordingly. In 2007, fund managers will have a lot of cash.

& lt4> can treat ADHD.

As there is a centralized subscription period during the closing and opening, it is forbidden to conduct daily transactions during these periods. In this way, investors who participate in closing positions and opening positions are forced to do the middle line, which virtually avoids the difficult action that everyone always wants to throw high and suck low and escape from the bottom.

2. Shortcomings of closed arbitrage

& lt 1 & gt； Liquidity risk in the process of closing and opening positions

As a special form from closed to open, liquidity risk will be the focus of everyone's attention. Because during a centralized subscription period in the process of opening to the outside world, investors are forbidden to conduct daily transactions during these periods. In other words, if there is a market decline during this period, everyone will face direct asset losses because there is no way to trade, which is insufficient liquidity in professional terms.

& lt2> Liquidation risk due in the process of closing and opening positions.

If the shareholders' meeting fails to pass smoothly and investors do not agree to the plan of changing from closed to open, then the fund company may adopt such a liquidation method for this closed-end fund. If this happens, the fund company will have to cash out by selling shares. At this time, because a large number of selling stocks will have a certain selling pressure on the operation of the whole fund, investors holding this closed-end fund may face asset losses arising from the liquidation process.

(3) Two main arbitrage opportunities of closed-end funds:

1. Closed-end funds will be converted into open-end funds before maturity. You can buy at a lower market price and redeem at a net value after closing, so that the fund price will rise sharply before the "closing" suspension and quickly move closer to the net value.

2. It is a large proportion of dividends. After paying dividends, the discount rate of closed-end funds with discount transactions will naturally rise. If you want to return to the discount rate before dividends, then the transaction price will inevitably rise, which will also bring arbitrage opportunities. The connotation of the discount rate is like this. Referring to the net value of the fund, the fund price is a loss relative to the net value of the fund, so the denominator should be the net value, not the price. The formula of actual discount and premium is the same. Because the closed-end fund is listed on the exchange, its transaction price is greatly influenced by the relationship between market supply and demand. When the market supply is less than the demand, the transaction price of the fund unit may be higher than the net asset value of each fund unit, and then the fund assets owned by investors will increase, that is, a premium will be generated. When the market supply exceeds demand, the fund price may be lower than the net asset value of each fund unit, that is, a discount will occur.

Premium (discount) rate = (transaction price-fund unit net value)/fund unit net value * 100%

If it is negative, it is the discount rate; If it is positive, it is the premium rate.

Closed-end funds don't have to be open at maturity, but they can also be opened in advance. If it is opened in advance, some fund management companies with large assets may start to "close" large funds, bringing huge arbitrage gains.

(4) the right to seal and open

Some friends think that the confirmation procedures of closed-end to open-end funds are very complicated, and they are unwilling to participate in the arbitrage of closed-end to open-end funds and miss some profit opportunities. In the closed-end to open-end fund, not all holders need to confirm their rights. There are two cases where you don't need to confirm permissions: 1. Closed-end funds are transformed into open-end funds. Because the registration and settlement institutions are all Deng Zhong companies, there is no need to handle the confirmation business. For example, the fund Xingke has been transformed into the core fund of Huaxia Blue Chip. 2. There is no need to confirm the fund share entrusted by the holder in a securities company with the qualification of "Shanghai Stock Exchange". At present, two confirmation procedures have been completed. My first letter was opened: Ji Feng Yuyuan Garden (5000 16) opened Kibosch Industry (050008) and my second letter was opened: Ji Feng Jingbo (184695) opened Jida Dacheng Innovation (1609 10). And mine. Because it was bought by a securities company with the qualification of "Shanghai Stock Exchange", there is no need to confirm the right. You can consult the relevant fund company: the fund closed transfer needs to go through the confirmation procedures, download a confirmation form from the relevant fund website, print it out, fill it out and go to the securities company where it is located.

(5) The prospect of turning from closed to open.

Since China successfully closed the first order in 2006, from "Fund Development" to "China Stable Growth Fund", many funds have been successfully closed and opened, and there are also innovations in form, such as "Smart Fund" to lof Fund "Changsheng Growth Fund with Wisdom Advantage". In 2007, * * * 19 closed-end fund expired. According to wind statistics, among closed-end funds, Jingbo has the largest increase of 45.58%, and the average increase of "closed-to-open" funds is as high as 25%, and the short-term income is relatively rich.

By the end of June, 2008, 5438+1October 12, there were still 32 closed markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, including Shanghai 14 and Shenzhen 18. There will be four closures in 2008, namely:

The maturity date of 500025 fund custody is 65438+February 3, 20081.

1847 13 auspicious maturity date Xiang 200865438+February 65438+March.

1847 12 due date of jijinke remittance+February 65438+March 2008

184700 maturity date of the fund in Hong Fei April 2008 14

The latest fund, 184700 Hong Fei, expired on April 4th, 2008. At present, I am facing a new problem: when I have mastered the arbitrage from closing to opening, I look back indifferently and find that there are not many closing bases available for arbitrage this year, which shows that China stock market is an innovative securities market. You should study hard, sum up practice and find new profit points so as not to be influenced by the market.