Is the RMB going to appreciate or depreciate?

External appreciation, internal depreciation. The reason for these two things is the same.

First of all, China has a large foreign trade surplus, so that China's banking system will get a lot of US dollar loans, and at the same time, a corresponding amount of RMB will be put into China. As a result, China's foreign exchange reserves are increasing, which puts pressure on the appreciation of RMB.

At the same time, the investment of RMB in China led to the increase of domestic money supply and the rise of prices.

As long as China wants to keep the exchange rate unchanged, it will continue to absorb US dollar loans from banks and release RMB to China, which will lead to inflation. This is the inflation imported by the loose monetary policy of the United States. However, if RMB appreciates, it will hit export trade and affect economic growth.

In any case, it is only a matter of time before the RMB will appreciate. Otherwise, inflation and asset bubbles in China will become more and more serious.