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With the in-depth development of the construction market, the traditional fixed pricing model has not adapted to the needs of market-oriented economic development. In order to meet the demand of the current project bidding market for project cost, we must reform the existing pricing methods and models and carry out the bill of quantities pricing. The valuation mode of engineering bill is in line with the market economy, allowing independent contractors to set prices, determining prices through market competition, and conforming to international practices. With the popularization of the project with bill of quantities valuation mode, it is imperative to carry out bidding according to the international bidding practice. Therefore, "the lowest reasonable price winning bidder" is the most important bid evaluation method in China in the future. The problems arising from the implementation of the bill of quantities pricing model at this stage are mainly aimed at the success of the principle of the lowest reasonable price in the Bidding Law at this stage in China. Sful bidders and most contractors have not established their own enterprise scale, and enterprises cannot determine reasonable costs. This paper is the research focus of setting "reasonable cost" scientifically and quickly. First of all, starting from the basic concept of project cost, this paper studies the cost composition under the bill of quantities pricing mode, which provides a basis for accurately predicting the project cost, and considers the estimation of the social average cost to the cost of a single enterprise and the cost of bidding stage. Then, through in-depth analysis of fuzzy mathematics and smoothing technology, through the concept of "closeness", fuzzy mathematics and exponential smoothing technology are reasonably used to build a fuzzy prediction model of project cost, and a comparative project of "frame structure" is established according to relevant data, statistical information and experience.