Perspective: What is a qualified economist?

A qualified economist in the future should be not only an expert in a certain economic field, but also a comprehensive talent of computer software engineers, philosophers, historians, entrepreneurs, politicians and artists, and a person who practices lifelong learning. The prosperity and challenge of human economy need a large number of qualified economists to gossip about economist Tong Sheng. Since some time in the 20th century, economists have become a very interesting profession. Someone once predicted that "the age of chivalry has passed and the age of economist is coming". The influential British "Economist" magazine said earlier: "Future economists will give the unknown inventor of limited liability system the same status as pioneers of industrial revolution such as Watt and Stephenson." But later, the magazine gave The Economist a bitter irony through a joke. The joke goes something like this: Einstein met three New Zealanders on the train. In order to kill time, they chatted. In order to have a targeted chat, Einstein wanted to know their IQ first. The first person replied that his IQ was 190. Einstein was very happy: "We can discuss atomic physics and some of my theoretical viewpoints." The second man replied that his IQ was 150, and Einstein said, "We can discuss the nuclear non-proliferation treaty established by New Zealand in pursuit of world peace." The third man replied that his IQ was 50. Einstein hesitated a little, and then asked, "What do you expect the interest rate to be next month?" Why do economists have different views as a profession? Economics is much like architecture, so it is difficult to repeat the experiment. There are many design schemes for a building, and it is difficult to judge which one is reasonable before the building is completed. It is often too late to judge when it will be completed, because what is done is done. Any economic policy plan may be correct before it is put into practice. If the wrong economic policy is adopted, the consequences will be serious and irreversible. Therefore, some people say that economists are very "profound" about the danger of economic development, pointing out: "The only thing more dangerous than economists is amateur economists; The only thing more dangerous than amateur economists is professional economists. " However, human economic challenges are realistic and urgent, such as the long-term poverty in Africa, the decade-long stagnation in Japan and the financial crisis in emerging market countries. These increasingly require economists as experts in economic issues to provide correct solutions. Then, an important question is, what is a qualified economist? There will be many answers to this question. It can be said that different people have different opinions. On the basis of discussing the views of Keynes, an economist in the 20th century, this paper puts forward my own humble opinion. Keynes made a request to a qualified or even excellent economist when talking about his teacher, alfred marshall: "Economic research doesn't seem to need that unique talent. Rationally speaking, isn't economics a very simple subject compared with those abstruse contents in philosophy and pure science? However, excellent and even qualified economists are rare. A simple subject, but few people are proficient! This statement seems contradictory, but it seems to be explained from here: that is, a master's degree in economics must be a combination of various talents. He must reach a certain level in all aspects, and then integrate these talents that are difficult to blend together. To some extent, he must be a mathematician, a historian, a politician and a philosopher. He must be able to listen to symbols and resort to words. He must look back on the past and look forward to the future while studying the present. Nothing about human nature and customs is completely out of his sight. He must pursue his goals with passion and without prejudice. He must be as far away from the secular as an artist and as down-to-earth as a politician. " It should be said that Keynes's requirements for the integration of various talents of economists are enlightening. Now let's look at the mathematician part that economists need. For the economic development of 2 1 century, this sentence of Keynes is out of date. Keynes did not expect that human beings would invent computers and bring about a technological revolution, and the computing speed of computers would soon exceed that of human brains. At the same time, economic models are becoming more and more complex. For example, the international economic model of two countries has no hope of finding a closed solution, and the axiom is difficult to prove. Only through computer simulation can we solve the economic model; Econometrics is also increasingly shifting from digital simulation to computer simulation, otherwise it is difficult to calculate the estimated value. In this case, mathematicians are "heroes are useless." Future economics is economic software engineering, and future economists must have the level of computer software engineers. Let's look at the composition of the philosopher. With the specialization of economics, in the past few decades, economists began to pay more attention to skills rather than philosophical connotation. Without philosophical elements, economists' theories lack the profundity and foresight of thought. A victory of philosophical foresight is that the German philosopher Kant put forward the theory of nebulae formed in the universe, many years before the real discovery of nebulae. For example, Adam Smith's "invisible hand" and Marx's emphasis on productivity have far-reaching influence so far. Then look at the composition of historians. Economists should have rich experience, but life is short. Understanding economic history will accelerate the accumulation of experience and avoid repeating the same mistakes. History will also give economists profound insight. Many people are convinced that the current mainstream economics is correct, and the ideas of predecessors are either considered to be included in the current economic knowledge or wrong, thus ignoring the history of economic development; Ignoring that economics, as a discipline with scientific attributes, will continue to have scientific revolutions, such as the "Keynesian Revolution" and the revival of classical economics (neoclassical economics). Let's look at the composition of politicians. There is a difference between an economist and a politician. Economists must base themselves on learning and consider their own credibility. Learning depends on hard study, and reputation depends on long-term accumulation. History shows that economists usually can't be politicians, and politicians are mostly lawyers, because economists can't find a delicate balance in various complicated social relations like lawyers. In fact, the quality of "down-to-earth like a politician" appreciated by Keynes can also be found in entrepreneurs, because entrepreneurs must be pragmatic and not divorced from the market environment, otherwise the products of enterprises will not keep up with the ever-changing market demand. Moreover, entrepreneurs have innovative ability, which is necessary for economists to engage in economic research. Let's talk about the composition of artists. Economics is not only a science, but also an art, especially at the policy level of economics. Because the economic state of any country or region is difficult to be fully expressed by an economic model, and a good economic policy is not simply based on a certain model, but a correct judgment of the future based on comprehensive experience, knowledge and even inspiration. In the implementation of economic policies, how to grasp the timing and strength of policies is another art, while Keynes emphasized comprehensiveness and ignored professionalism. With the development of many branches of economics, it is difficult to become an expert in a small field, and it is almost impossible to understand all of economics, so we must specialize in it. With in-depth research in one field, it is relatively easy to understand other fields, and you may also enjoy the economic scale of "one phone with one hundred phones". However, economic life is often complex and systematic. If we focus too much on an academic field, we will be limited by a single discipline when facing the realistic economic problems. Someone made an analogy. If there are 50 mathematicians discussing a mathematical problem in a room, then these 50 mathematicians will often agree with a point of view. If there are 50 economists in a room discussing an economic policy issue, then these 50 economists often have 50 opinions. It's like six blind people touching an elephant in an ancient Indian fable. Each of them only touched a part of the elephant and claimed to know it. As a result, six people have six different views on "what does an elephant look like" and have argued about it all day. Even if an economist is professional and comprehensive, it is not enough. A qualified economist also needs lifelong learning. Samuelson once said: "A parrot who can talk about the relationship between supply and demand is also an economist", which is actually ridiculous. Marshall's first sentence in Principles of Economics is that "economic life is always changing, and economists in every era are facing the challenges of that era". Economic life is changing, economic laws are changing, and economic knowledge should also change with it. For example, the capital account crisis that broke out in the 1990s was different from the previous current account crisis. Therefore, knowledge is not power, but learning is power. To sum up, a qualified economist in the future should be not only an expert in a certain field of economics, but also a comprehensive talent of computer software engineers, philosophers, historians, entrepreneurs, politicians and artists, or a person who practices lifelong learning. The prosperity and challenges of human economy need a large number of such qualified economists. Keynes dreamed that one day, economists would become an ordinary and respected profession like dentists. 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