2023 Real Estate Keywords: There are 6 known numbers in the new cycle

Produced by ifengfengcaixun

fengcaixun

Author | Wang Tingting

ivywong

"2023 , we can no longer attribute the inability to make money to the epidemic.”

This may seem like a joke, but it also reveals the biggest difference between 2023 and the past three years. As China adjusts its epidemic policy, the country "comprehensive economic development", and the central level frequently releases positive signals, it is time to shake off pessimism, and it is time to change our thinking and look at the future.

In particular, real estate, which has been regarded as "one of the biggest pessimists" in recent years, needs to cheer up and see new opportunities. Just like Yu Liang said, "Pessimism is an emotion, but optimism is a way of thinking."

The "2023 Real Estate Keywords" of Fengcaixun's year-end planning series intends to bring together experts in multiple fields of real estate The voice with the right to speak comes to predict the corresponding fields in 2023, hoping to trigger your new ideas and new perspectives.

Maintaining stability? Macroeconomic keywords: China’s GDP growth rate 4-6

Many research institutions: At present, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international organizations, as well as Goldman Sachs and Swiss The expectations of many international institutions such as Bank of China and Nomura for China's economic growth in 2023 are concentrated between 4 and 5, while the predictions of domestic institutions are mostly concentrated between 5 and 6.

In addition to the epidemic prevention situation, whether real estate can stabilize, the degree of slowdown in external demand, and the strength of policy hedging will all affect China's economic recovery in 2023.

Turn over? Real estate policy keywords? To ensure stability and prevent risks, outdated policies are gradually cancelled

Central Economic Work Conference: Release real estate policies to "guarantee stability", "preserve" and "prevent risks" of the three major tones.

What is the new development model of real estate?

Meng Xiaosu, leader of the housing reform task force, former chairman of China Real Estate Group and chairman of Huili Fund, believes that the new development model of real estate is a "dual-track system with both renting and purchasing".

Specifically, it is developing in two aspects. One is to firmly "improve the housing market system and housing security system", focusing on the market to meet multi-level needs, and relying on the government to provide basic security; On the other hand, we encourage both renting and purchasing to solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people. For example, affordable rental housing is allowed to be rented instead of purchased and can be put into the market after additional funds are paid.

Some local restrictive policies that are clearly inconsistent with the need to "support housing improvement" should be gradually removed.

As a result, Liu Xiaobo and other industry insiders predict that most second-tier cities will cancel purchase restrictions and sales restrictions; first-tier cities will see substantial loosening of restrictive policies.

Keywords for slightly lower new homes in 2023? Existing supply is the main factor, housing prices will fall first and then stabilize

Shell Research Institute: First-hand housing prices in 2023 are expected to fall first and then stabilize.

Due to factors such as slow sales of projects and low popularity of land auctions, localities have become more tolerant of reductions in the registered price of new housing projects.

Before the demand side is completely stabilized in 2023, companies will still have the motivation to exchange price for volume, and there is room for further downward pressure in the supply price of new homes.

The main tone of supply in 2023 is to revitalize inventory and reduce inventory.

With less land available, will there be a shortage of new housing supply in 2023? Won't.

There is still a lot of inventory in the market. As of October 2022, narrow inventory has increased by approximately 17% year-on-year. The average clearance period in first- and second-tier cities rose to 16 months, and in third- and fourth-tier cities exceeded 20 months.

(Trends of commercial housing sales area in various tier cities from 2014 to 2022.9)

Concessing the growth of second-hand housing keyword supply in 2023, the bargaining space first rose and then fell

Shell Research Hospital: The supply of second-hand housing has grown steadily.

The current inventory of housing in the 50 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute increased by 14% from the end of 2021, and by the end of 2021 by 13% from the end of 2020. The changes in the supply of second-hand housing inventory are basically stable.

Because consumers’ expectations are not strong due to falling prices, their willingness to buy houses has weakened. In a market dominated by home exchanges, not buying means not selling, so the change in new inventory has been relatively stable.

The bargaining space for second-hand houses first increased and then decreased.

The current average bargaining space for second-hand houses in key cities (the difference between the listing price and the transaction price as a proportion of the listing price) has risen to 10, which is at a high level in recent years.

For buyers and sellers to reach an agreed price, the seller will need to make greater price concessions. This feature will continue until more buyers enter the market and the bargaining space gradually decreases.

Shuffle? Keywords for real estate companies in 2023: Glimmer turns to dawn, wear new shoes and take a new path

Vanke: Glimmer turns to dawn

December 16 At Vanke's shareholders' meeting, Yu Liang's judgment on the real estate industry has evolved from "gloom" to "dawn."

“After 20 years, real estate has become a pillar industry again. Real estate policies are gradually improving, and the intensity and breadth of policies have exceeded Vanke’s expectations.”

Following this, Vanke’s president Zhu Jiusheng pointed out that the dawn has appeared, and we can vaguely see some opportunities. Vanke will start to take some positive actions, such as supplementing the development of business opportunities, acquiring land in the open market, and developing operation and service businesses.

Poly: Wearing new shoes and taking a new path

Poly’s development is predicted by the white paper on the real estate industry, and the operating logic of the industry has fundamentally changed. In the past, high leverage drove scale growth, but now the logic In reverse, corporate investment needs to be highly dependent on operating cash flow and sales collections, and demand changes lead supply adjustments.

So if real estate companies want to continue to move upward and move forward steadily during the great differentiation, they must wear new shoes and take a new path.

Because real estate presents five major characteristics: de-financialization, manufacturing, extreme specialization, functional and livelihood-oriented, and increasingly differentiated competitive landscape, real estate companies must transform the extensive three-high model into a refined one. The “endogenous model” focuses on building dynamic capabilities.

It is inevitable that big waves will wash away the sand, and some real estate companies must give up their illusions.

Differentiation? Keywords for cities in 2023? Core cities will recover first, and the Yangtze and Pearl River Delta will take the lead

Zhongzhi Research Institute: Although the epidemic prevention and control situation is still the biggest variable, policy optimization in second-tier cities There is a large space, and the market in core second-tier cities is expected to recover steadily, such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Wuhan, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities.

The market transaction volume in third- and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline, and the market in some hotspot cities is expected to gradually stabilize and recover. The per capita housing construction area in third- and fourth-tier cities exceeds 40 square meters, and some cities even exceed 50 square meters. In these cities, there is less space for new housing, and short-term market adjustment pressure is still high.

Historically, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions were the first to recover after the downward cycle, and the same will be true in the second half of 2022.

(Figure: Monthly year-on-year trend of commercial residential transaction area in representative cities of each urban agglomeration since 2016/Compiled by China Index Institute from local housing authorities)

Year-to-year residential transaction area in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta The decline has narrowed most significantly; however, short-term inventories in Huizhou and Zhuhai are relatively high, which may drag down market recovery, and the markets in Zhaoqing and Jiangmen may continue to consolidate at the bottom.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is under great pressure to adjust in the short-term regional market. It is expected that there will still be room for optimization of regulatory policies in Beijing and Tianjin in 2023. The property market is expected to stabilize and recover, while most cities will continue to operate at the bottom.

Under the impact of the epidemic in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu and Chongqing, short-term market adjustment pressure is still there. Policy optimization drives the market in core cities to stabilize and recover. For example, Chengdu has relaxed its property market policies and is expected to gradually stabilize and recover; in the short term, Wuhan, Changsha and other cities are expected to stabilize and recover. There are expectations for policy optimization.

Li Guangdou said it well:

Opening up ushered in a new climax of China’s economy in 1992;

Opening up will usher in 2023 China’s new economic cycle.

The book "Japan's Lost Decade" describes Japan's society after the economic crisis as a "low desire society." But China is far from reaching that level of economic maturity, nor has it reached that level of crisis.

The epidemic and regulation are "turning the page". Real estate companies and real estate developers may have PTSD, but they cannot ignore the trillions of space in China's real estate.

So instead of pessimistically predicting the arrival of a "low-desire society", it is better to return to positivity.

History will not stop, society is still moving forward, and everyone can still strive for "a better life."