Why does China's per capita gdp increase?

Since 10, per capita GDP has indeed increased substantially in dollar terms. In the face of this amazing growth, many people will say that the appreciation of the renminbi is a factor, so the growth of per capita GDP denominated in dollars is a considerable catalyst. The appreciation of RMB is undeniable, but it has not really solved the mystery.

1980 China's per capita is 463 RMB. If denominated in dollars, the per capita GDP far exceeds $200, but after 14 years of growth, it still stays at $200. Many people joke about this thing, saying that China's economy is amazing. After the rapid growth of 10 years after the reform and opening up, the per capita GDP is still as much as at the beginning of the reform and opening up. In fact, this joke is all fooled by the exchange rate. 1980 The nominal exchange rate was about 1 USD 1.5 yuan RMB, but it depreciated to 1 USD/8.7 yuan RMB in 1994. In fact, the RMB exchange rate of 1980 is overvalued, so the per capita GDP in US dollars is indirectly overvalued.

Since 2005, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, and the per capita GDP in US dollars has increased even faster. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is only one factor. In fact, CPI has also contributed a lot. There are three factors for the rapid growth of GDP or per capita GDP denominated in dollars. One is the growth of the real economy, the other is the appreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar, and the third is the depreciation of the domestic currency. If China's GDP last year was 1000 billion yuan, and this year it is 1200 billion yuan, and the price rises by 654.38+00%, then the actual growth is 654.38+00%. If the domestic currency does not depreciate against the US dollar, the GDP denominated in US dollars will increase by 20%. If the local currency still appreciates against the US dollar, the growth rate will be faster.

If a country's nominal economic growth is 15% and prices rise by 5%, then the actual economic growth is 10%. So real economic growth is equal to nominal growth minus CPI. In fact, CPI is often underestimated, which inevitably leads to overestimation of actual growth. Many times, prices have risen sharply, but CPI is still so low. One is the growth of the real economy, the other is the appreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar, and the third is that inflation (rising prices) will accelerate the violent growth of China's per capita GDP.

In fact, people's lives have not increased as fast as GDP, but have slowed down or even decreased. In fact, the dollar-denominated GDP has the factors of the appreciation of the domestic currency, but there are also many inflation factors. Assuming that the real growth is constant, the more serious inflation is, the higher the nominal growth is. By then, statistics will naturally become beautiful. Here, let's look at some data. Zhou Kecheng said on his blog, "According to the research of Professor Zhao and Professor Peking University, the monetary stock (M2) of Chinese mainland in 1952 was1065438+300 million yuan. After five large-scale inflation, the money stock reached 1 year. At the same time, he also said, "After 2003, China entered a new round of inflation. According to the data recently released by the People's Bank of China, at the end of April 2009, the balance of broad money supply (M2) of RMB has reached 54 trillion yuan. This data is more than three times that of 200 1 and more than 5000 times that of 1952. "

Although the per capita GDP of China in 20 1 1 year reached US$ 5,432, which seems to be many times higher than that of ten years ago, it is only a puzzle of the per capita GDP denominated in US dollars. We can't just judge people's living standards from this data. If the per capita GDP is high and the price level is high, it is meaningless to the national living standard. Therefore, it is necessary to look at the soaring GDP per capita in China rationally, especially the real income growth of people has not improved much.