"Unconventional" Stabilizing the Property Market: How to Grasp the Scale and Intensity of Policy Adjustment in the Property Market?

"The street office where my home is located has issued a notice to implement the housing ticket resettlement policy, and will not give resettlement houses in the future." Li Siqi, a resident who once lived in a village in Erqi District of Zhengzhou, said that his community was demolished eight or nine years ago, but the resettlement work was never completed. Many residents have to rent houses and wait for resettlement, so they are very concerned about the new housing ticket policy.

On June 20th, Zhengzhou issued the "Implementation Measures for Housing Ticket Resettlement of Large-scale shantytown renovation projects in Zhengzhou (Provisional)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Measures"), becoming the first key city in China to issue systematic documents on housing tickets this year.

According to the "Implementation Measures", the shanty towns in the central city of Zhengzhou, including Zhongyuan District, Erqi District, Jinshui District, Huiji District, Zhengdong New District, Economic Development Zone and High-tech Zone, will implement housing ticket resettlement, that is, referring to the monetized resettlement method, but the compensation for the expropriated person is not cash, but housing tickets-the purchase price can be offset when purchasing a house.

The area where Li Siqi's home is located is within the scope of the room ticket placement policy. He told China Newsweek that the policy follows the principle of voluntariness and does not force the use of room tickets. If you don't want to choose a room ticket, you can choose monetary resettlement, but "you can get a reward for choosing a room ticket".

It is reported that in order to implement the new policy of housing ticket placement and stimulate the enthusiasm of relocated households (that is, the expropriated people) to choose housing ticket placement, Zhengzhou City has set up a reward and preferential policy-if they choose housing ticket placement, the expropriated people will receive 8% of the resettlement compensation rights and interests as a policy reward, which will be included in the face value of the house, and at the same time, the expropriated people will be rewarded with a three-month transition fee in cash.

As one of the 22 hot real estate cities named by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Zhengzhou has aroused widespread concern and heated discussion after the introduction of room tickets. This new policy in Zhengzhou is only a microcosm of the actions to boost the property market across the country.

"room ticket" reappears in rivers and lakes

In fact, before the "Implementation Measures" was officially announced, the resettlement of housing tickets for shantytown renovation in Zhengzhou City has been implemented.

According to China News Weekly, He Lou Village, Mazhai Town, Erqi District, Zhengzhou City posted a public notice on June 17, releasing the implementation plan for housing ticket placement.

"House tickets are good for local relocated households." Sean, who is engaged in real estate sales in Zhengzhou, told China Newsweek, "I can only wait for resettlement. Now you can choose room tickets or cash, and there are many preferential policies. "

The "Implementation Measures" clarified a number of incentives and preferential policies. In addition to the above preferential policies and the three-month transition fee, the room ticket can be selected by the cooperative developers in the whole city. The purchased house is not included in the number of family purchase restrictions and can enjoy tax relief. You can go through the enrollment procedures for your children in the school district where the newly purchased house is located. If the purchase record or loan has been settled, you can also enjoy the interest rate of the first home loan.

"If the resettlement houses obtained according to the relocated households are usually small property rights (collective property rights), which is about 50% of the price of commercial housing in the market, they cannot be listed and traded, and can only be transferred within the village collective." Sean said that it is now possible to choose commercial housing through the allocation of room tickets. "One has property rights and the other has no property rights. This is not a concept."

However, compared with the compensation form of shantytown renovation in the past, Zhengzhou's housing ticket placement has also caused different voices.

In view of the fact that the room ticket placement is similar to the form of vouchers, some netizens even nicknamed it "white compensation". A Zhengzhou citizen said, "In the past, demolition was either physical compensation or monetary compensation, but now it has created a kind of' white compensation'."

It is understood that many of the urban village demolition projects before Zhengzhou 20 16 have not been resettled. Many of these relocated households are reluctant to choose room ticket placement, such as being close to the central city and having a good geographical location, and are more willing to choose to move back.

A local relocated household waiting for resettlement said that the relocated house can be used for rent. If the commercial housing is paid by room ticket, it often means that the unit price of the new house is higher. "The area of the relocated house will definitely shrink, and you may have to pay for it yourself. If you buy it, you will have no money to decorate it. "

Li Siqi told China Newsweek that the situation of each family may be different. Some people are willing to choose a room ticket, while others prefer to move back. As far as he is concerned, he prefers monetary compensation.

Song, vice president of Beijing Normal University Government Management Research Institute and president of Henan Business Economics Association, told China that Zhengzhou's housing ticket allotment policy is a very good measure to activate the property market, stimulate consumption and stimulate domestic demand under the background of epidemic prevention and control, and also gives people more choices to buy houses.

In fact, this is not the first time that Zhengzhou has introduced a new policy to save the market this year. In March this year, Zhengzhou began to loosen the policy of "recognizing housing and recognizing loans", which started the "first shot" of property market policy adjustment and became the first key city to loosen the policy of "recognizing housing and recognizing loans" since the tightening of regulation on 20 16.

Although Zhengzhou's new policy of stabilizing the property market continues, the feedback given by the market is limited. According to the data of China Housing Association, the transaction volume of new commercial housing in Zhengzhou in May was 426,000 square meters, down 16.5% from the previous month and down 50.2% year-on-year. The transaction volume of second-hand houses was 335,000 square meters, down 14.2% from the previous month and up 3.6% year-on-year.

It has long been an open secret that Zhengzhou commercial housing is facing huge destocking pressure. According to the annual report data of RealData Zhengzhou Branch, as of February, 2022, the residential inventory in five districts of Zhengzhou main city was high, all exceeding 18 months, among which Jinshui District was the highest, with 35.4 months to go.

The data of the China Housing Association also shows that the narrow inventory of Zhengzhou commercial housing is13.95 million square meters, and the decontamination cycle is as high as 34 months.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of new houses in 70 cities fell for the first time in more than six and a half years in May, with the price index of new houses in second-tier cities rising by 0.3% year-on-year and Zhengzhou falling by 2.5% year-on-year. Since August, 20021year, both first-hand and second-hand house prices in Zhengzhou have fallen 10 month.

In this context, the resettlement of housing tickets for shantytown renovation has been put on the agenda. In fact, before this, Zhengzhou shantytown renovation has begun to adopt the policy of monetary resettlement.

Room ticket placement is not the first in Zhengzhou. As early as 20 15, some cities introduced the house ticket system in the demolition and resettlement of shacks. At that time, the real estate market was also facing great destocking pressure, among which Erdos, Inner Mongolia, with high inventory, was the most representative.

20 16 The room ticket system was implemented in Dongsheng District of Ordos City. By the end of May of that year, the stock of digested housing in Dongsheng District was 13566 sets and1840,000 square meters, accounting for 40% of the housing stock and 30% of the total area, and the destocking effect was obvious.

Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Planning and Housing Policy Research Center, said that the Ordos property market gradually returned to the right track after 20 15 shed change and inventory removal.

However, after 20 18, with the compulsory withdrawal of the monetization authority of shed reform, the room ticket system temporarily withdrew from the historical stage.

A number of interviewed experts said that the room ticket system is conducive to the targeted destocking of the local property market and promotes the circulation efficiency of the real estate market, which is precisely the problem that needs to be solved in Zhengzhou property market at present.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told China News Weekly that if the housing ticket promotion work is in place, the construction of resettlement houses can be reduced or cancelled, which objectively reduces the pressure on the government to directly build such houses.

"At the same time, it also ensures that such purchase funds remain in the housing sector, and it is also an important manifestation of ensuring the stability of the financial system and preventing the flow of purchase funds to non-real estate sectors." He said.

An industry insider in Zhengzhou said that whether the room ticket system is favorable or not depends on the implementation. "The achievement of all this depends on the implementation of policies, such as whether the price of room tickets is reasonable, whether the government has invested enough funds, whether all aspects of incentives for resettlement households are in place, and whether the contribution rate of housing enterprises can keep up."

Loosen the purchase restriction in many places.

It is worth noting that outside Zhengzhou, the room ticket system has also been restarted in many places across the country. The policy of changing sheds into house tickets seems to be becoming one of the important measures to boost the property market in many places.

According to the incomplete statistics of China News Weekly, at least 20 cities across the country began to explore the implementation of the housing ticket allotment policy this year, including Xinyang, Xuchang, Wenzhou, Shaoxing, Changshu, Ezhou, Yibin and Jieshou.

Some analysts pointed out that high inventory and high pressure are the common characteristics of these cities' property markets.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, various localities have continuously introduced policies to boost the property market, from non-hot cities to hot cities, from provident fund policies to restrictions on purchases, loans and sales, and the scope and intensity have been increasing, especially since June. The actions to boost the property market in various places are becoming more and more intensive. Public purchase restriction is one of the means to stabilize the property market. For example, Nanjing recently adjusted the property market purchase restriction policy again, allowing non-local household registration personnel to pay social security to buy houses.

Yu Yang, who is going to settle in Nanjing, told China Newsweek that he planned to buy a house in Nanjing several months ago, but the threshold for buying a house in Nanjing was too high, so he had to give it up temporarily.

"Now that the purchase restriction has been liberalized, it only takes 6 months to change the social security, and it can be returned, both in the suburbs of the main city." Yu Yang said that he rekindled the idea of buying a house.

As one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Nanjing property market has always been known as "stable" in the past, but it has been moving frequently recently. According to the incomplete statistics of China Newsweek, from the beginning of April, in more than two months, Nanjing has successively issued more than a dozen property market regulation policies.

Hefei, Anhui Province has taken a bigger step, not only paying social security to buy a house, but also releasing a big move to allow enterprises to buy a house.

According to local media reports, on June 24, Hefei adjusted the purchase restriction policy. Urban registered collective households and households relying on relatives and friends have the same qualifications for buying houses as urban registered households; In the identification of the qualification of non-local registered households to purchase houses, the identification of social security tax is retroactively paid; Legal persons and unincorporated organizations can purchase new commercial housing and second-hand housing in urban areas.

In Yan Yuejin's view, Nanjing, Hefei and other real estate markets are not bad compared with similar cities. He told China Newsweek that the above policy adjustments show that even hot cities are now facing the pressure of the real estate market.

In order to boost the property market, many cities are still making a fuss about the provident fund. Reducing the down payment ratio and increasing the loan amount have become the choices of many cities.

On June 23, Quanzhou, Fujian Province issued a new policy, which adjusted the down payment ratio of the first home provident fund loan to not less than 20%, and the down payment ratio of the second home purchase to not less than 30%, while families with two or three children can add 6,543,800 yuan on the basis of the maximum loan amount.

The provident fund "relay loan" implemented in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province has also attracted attention, which mentioned the implementation of "one person buying a house to help the whole family". In other words, immediate family members can withdraw money from the provident fund account to help the other party pay the down payment or repay the house purchase loan. Similar policies have been introduced in Shaoyang, Hunan, Chaozhou, Guangdong, Ziyang, Sichuan, Chuxiong, Yunnan, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, Ganzhou, Hebei and Qinhuangdao.

In addition to relaxing restrictions on purchases, reducing the down payment ratio, lowering interest rates and increasing the amount of provident fund, all localities have tried their best to save the market. Some cities play the slogan of buying a house and "sending a job", and even include selling a house in the assessment; Some places have introduced the promotion policies of "down payment for wheat", "down payment for garlic" and "down payment for watermelon".

An "extraordinary" way to save yourself

Since June 65438+ 10 this year, many buildings in Yulin have received the house-viewing groups organized by local governments at all levels or functional organs.

Many real estate agents in Yulin told China Newsweek that this year, they did receive many official house-viewing activities. "The number of people is uncertain, and most of them are organized by county-level organs or from towns and villages."

Yulin even used the big trick of buying a house and "sending a job". According to the "Several Policies and Measures of Yulin City on Accelerating Population Entering the City", the local authorities are responsible for recommending more than three jobs to new citizens who have bought houses in this city and are not employed, and the salary is not lower than the minimum wage in Yulin City.

Now in Yulin, from every district and county to every township, the task of "pulling people into the city" has been issued. "No matter how many houses are bought and how many permanent residents are added, there are clear tasks." Zhang Ming, who works in a public institution in Yulin, told China Newsweek that almost all government agencies and institutions have assigned tasks.

"China News Weekly" also learned that government agencies at all levels in Yulin also included "pulling people into the city" in the assessment, with quantitative and specific indicators every year, and also set up a reward and punishment mechanism to deduct points from the performance of counties (cities, districts) that failed to complete the task of population entering the city until their performance was degraded.

Take Bobai County as an example. The county holds a progress meeting of population entering the city once a week. At the progress meeting on March 16, Bobai County interviewed the last three towns and departments of that week.

Coincidentally, Qingdao, Shandong Province will also promote residents to buy houses into the assessment. Qingdao Xuejiadao Sub-district Office recently issued the Notice on Promoting Residents to Buy Newly-built Commercial Housing (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). Sub-district offices should not only organize the group purchase of commercial housing, but also incorporate the promotion of residents' purchase into their work assessment. Some netizens ridiculed that "the end of the universe is Kao Gong, and the end of Kao Gong is to help developers sell houses".

The "Notice" also clearly stated the work objectives. By the end of June, each community has completed no less than two online signings. "If it is not completed, the community will be deducted, and the community secretary may also be deducted." A staff member of the street office said.

Changsha's new property market policy is also full of creativity. At the beginning of May, Changsha introduced the policy of "rent and purchase at the same time", and the real estate under its name, as rental housing, will not be included in the number of family housing units, so that it can bypass Changsha's current purchase restriction policy to buy commercial housing.

A similar policy also appeared in Chengdu, Sichuan. On May 3 1 day, Chengdu launched a new rental policy of "room ticket". Residents who rent their own houses to new citizens, young people and other groups, promise to abide by the relevant policies and regulations of affordable rental housing and are not allowed to be listed and traded within five years, and are included in the management of affordable rental housing management service platform, can buy another set of housing.

If the above-mentioned "rescue measures" are enough to break people's traditional cognition, then "garlic for housing and barley for housing" makes many people feel "nonsense".

At the end of last month, Jianye City, Qixian County, Kaifeng City, Henan Province, advertised "5 yuan/Jin, garlic for a house", and buyers sold garlic to designated buyers, which could deduct part of the down payment, up to 654.38+10,000 yuan.

On June 20th, Jianye Real Estate, Minquan County, Shangqiu City, Henan Province also launched the promotion activity of "2 yuan/Jin, Wheat for House", with a maximum of 6.5438+0.6 million yuan.

Although the above promotion activities were urgently stopped by developers under the concern of public opinion, some analysts pointed out that although the publicity stunt of "barter" promotion was greater than the actual effect, the severe destocking challenges faced by the above cities and developers can be seen. Before the impact of the epidemic on the overall economy slows down, it is expected that more cities and housing enterprises will save themselves in an "extraordinary" way.

"Housing without speculation" is still the bottom line.

According to Zhongtai Securities's incomplete statistics, from June to May this year, 326 local relaxation policies were issued in 34 cities across the country/KLOC-0, especially in May, when it entered an intensive release period, and the policy relaxation showed an accelerated trend.

In June, according to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, as of the 20th, more than 80 cities issued nearly 100 new policies on the property market in that month.

I love Hu Jinghui, former vice president of my family group and chief economist of Jing Hui think tank, told China Newsweek that local governments are under great financial pressure due to the epidemic and other factors. If the real estate market does not pick up, the fiscal revenue of many local governments may have greater difficulties and gaps. This is also considered to be the background and reason for all localities to actively try various ways to boost the property market.

At the National People's Congress this year, when referring to the property market, the work report of the State Council Municipal Government emphasized the position that "houses are for living, not for speculation", and added the expression of "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers".

A number of interviewed experts said that in the current market environment, the central government's tolerance for the local property market loosening policy has increased, and the space for policy relaxation is expanding.

The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on April 29th proposed "supporting local governments to improve real estate policies according to local conditions". The outside world believes that this is the recognition of various easing policies this year, and it also gives local governments greater adjustment authority.

It is worth noting that the premise of this expression is "insisting that the house is used for living, not for speculation". Some analysts pointed out that "housing without speculation" is still the premise and bottom line for local governments to adjust their policies due to urban policies.

On May 20, many sources confirmed that Nanjing cancelled the purchase restriction of second-hand houses from that day, and Nanjing registered and non-Nanjing registered residents did not need to provide proof of purchase when purchasing second-hand houses. However, after the "half-day tour", the above policy was urgently stopped.

Some public opinion believes that it can be seen that policies to support reasonable housing demand can be introduced, but demand cannot be stimulated without a bottom line, and speculative real estate speculation should also be prevented. The analysis points out that the main pressure faced by China real estate market at present is insufficient demand. To restore market confidence and improve market expectations, the most important thing is to make precise policies to stimulate real and potential housing consumption demand.

It is generally believed in the industry that more cities will actively boost the property market in various ways in the future. However, how to strike a balance between "staying without speculation" and "better meeting the reasonable housing needs of buyers" and how to adjust policies according to local conditions are the tests faced by local governments.

In Hu Jinghui's view, all localities need to "adapt to local conditions". He believes that the city still has a lot of space and autonomy, and it is necessary to introduce some "more powerful policies" according to local conditions on the premise of "housing and not speculating".

(Original title: "Unconventional" Stabilizing the Property Market "At the request of the respondents, Li Siqi, Sean, Yu Yang and Zhang Ming are pseudonyms)