Baoshan district live broadcast base placard

After several months of debate, the Japanese government adopted three revised security documents at the cabinet meeting in February 16, namely, the National Security Assurance Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defence Force Maintenance Plan.

This marks a major shift in Japan's national defense policy, and Japan is no longer satisfied with playing the role of "shield" in the US-Japan security alliance.

Data map of Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force

Japan's "three new security documents" mainly have three points:

First, position China as "the biggest strategic challenge to date". The document falsely claims that China's foreign posture and military activities are "serious concern" of the international community, accuses China of launching missiles during military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, posing a "threat" to local residents, and labels China as "economic coercion".

On June 16, a spokesman for the Japanese Embassy in Japan said that the remarks seriously deviated from the basic facts, violated the spirit of the four political documents between China and China, and wantonly incited China threats and provoked regional tensions. China expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this and has made solemn representations to Japan.

The spokesman also warned Japan that in history, Japan went astray by militarism and committed aggression, expansion and crimes against humanity, which brought profound disasters to the region and the world. This time, Japan has substantially adjusted its security policy and strengthened its counterattack military capability, which has to make people suspect that Japan is "out of the track of peaceful development after the war", which is bound to arouse the vigilance and opposition of all peace-loving people. The spokesman urged Japan to learn a lesson and avoid becoming a destroyer of bilateral relations and regional security and stability.

According to the Japan Times (16), the ruling Liberal Democratic Party tried to define China as a "threat" in the document, but it was opposed by the Komeito Party, which was in power together, and finally called China, Tokyo's largest trading partner, "the biggest strategic challenge Japan has ever faced" in the document. The document also called North Korea a "more serious and imminent threat than before" and Russia a "serious security risk".

Second, the so-called "counterattack capability" was introduced, enabling Japan to use long-range missiles to attack enemy bases and command and control nodes.

According to the "New Security Document 3", Japan will extend the range of domestic 12 anti-ship missiles within five years and purchase American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of about 1600 km. It is estimated that the total cost of purchasing Tomahawk missiles is about 5 trillion yen.

Japanese Self-Defense Force officials told CNN that Japan's current missile defense system can only engage with incoming targets when it enters a range of about 50 kilometers. China has missiles that can be launched from fighter planes up to 300 kilometers away.

Critics say that if Japan tries to deploy these weapons in a preemptive way, it will violate the "defensive" posture stipulated in Article 9 of Japan's post-war constitution.

Japanese experts said that the new security document strengthened and expanded Japan's role in the Japan-US alliance, and added steps to expand Japan-US bilateral defense cooperation, marking Japan's transformation from the traditional "shield" role in the "shield and sword" relationship with Washington.

US Defense Secretary Austin immediately welcomed Japan's three new security documents: "We welcome Japan's latest strategic document, which reflects Japan's firm commitment to maintaining a rules-based international order and a free and open Indian Ocean-Pacific." "We support Japan's decision to acquire new capabilities to strengthen regional deterrence, including counterattack capabilities."

In June165438+1October, US-Japan Air Self-Defense Force fighters participated in joint air-sea exercises in Japan.

Third, Japan's military spending is about to reach NATO standards.

In order to pay for new weapons and systems, Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio broke Japan's long-standing taboo at the end of last month and instructed his defense ministers and finance ministers to ensure that by 2027, Japan's military budget is equivalent to 2% of GDP. The goal of 2% stipulated in the new strategy and the plan of spending 43 trillion yen in five years proposed in Japan's defense plan will make Japan's military expenditure reach NATO standards.

In response, kishida fumio argued at a press conference after the cabinet approved the document that the world was "at a crossroads in history", which required Japan to "take immediate action".

On June 5438+06, citizens who opposed the finalization of three security-related documents by the Japanese cabinet meeting held a rally in front of the Prime Minister's residence, shouting slogans such as "Don't make arbitrary decisions" and "Prepare for unconstitutionality". Participants in the rally held microphones and criticized that "there was no serious discussion in Congress. Where is the ability to attack enemy bases? " They also put up placards that read "force cannot create peace" and "if defense spending increases, taxes will also increase".

65438+February 16, people who opposed the increase in defense fees held a protest rally in front of the House of Representatives.

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 16, Spokesperson Wang Wenbin accused the Japanese defense policy document of "ignoring the facts" and discrediting China's national defense construction and normal military activities for no reason. He warned Japan that it was impossible to make excuses for its military expansion by exaggerating the "China threat".

Extended reading:

Media: Japanese "security rampage" sword refers to China as a "meeting gift" for the United States.

Direct news: Japan is expected to formally adopt three series of security documents including the National Security Strategy on Friday, regarding China as the so-called "unprecedented biggest strategic challenge". What's your comment on this?

Special commentator Guan Yao: The focus now is the Japanese cabinet meeting tomorrow. The ruling coalition of Japan, namely the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, reached an agreement on amending three security documents on Monday, and was approved by the cabinet meeting in kishida fumio on Friday, which is a high probability event. These three security documents, one is the new national security strategy, the other is the national defense project guide, and the third is the medium-term national defense development plan. Among them, "National Security Strategy" is the general program and the so-called strategic thinking, and it is also the second strategic report issued by Japan after 20 13, while the other two documents are specific implementation guidelines issued regularly, focusing on the implementation of tactics and military equipment and budget guarantee.

The Chinese character of the year written by Kiyomizu Temple this year is "Zhan". Now, it seems that this is not only an annual summary of Japanese social sentiment, but also a situational awareness and strategic choice conveyed by the word "war", which is also fully demonstrated in the three strategic documents to be forcibly adopted by kishida fumio's cabinet. Judging from the editorial title of the English newspaper Japan Times, the Tokyo government is opening up a new road to national security. Of course, "new road" is a euphemism. Kishida's cabinet tried to greatly hollow out the peace constitution and comprehensively break through the so-called "dedicated defense." Shinzo Abe, who was shot dead in the street, said that what he did here was the so-called "revision of the constitution and the establishment of the army", but what Abe failed to do during his tenure as prime minister will largely make a key leap because of the adoption and implementation of these three security documents. According to the standards of NATO member countries, Japan's so-called defense expenditure, such as planning guidelines, will reach 2% of the gross national product, and reach the military expenditure target of 40-43 trillion yen from 2023 to 2027 stipulated in the guidelines, that is, the investment intensity in the next five years will be 1.5 times that in the past five years. Last year, Japan's military expenditure will rank ninth in the world, and it will climb to the third place in the world five years later. Of course, as far as China is concerned, the most alarming thing is the determination of the so-called "biggest strategic challenge", which will inevitably affect and impact the bilateral relations of the top two economies in Asia.

Direct news: So why does Japan carry out this so-called strategic adjustment, and what impact and impact will it bring to Sino-Japanese relations?

Special commentator Guan Yao: The first national security strategy adopted by Japan after the war was in 20 13 years, that is, three years after China's GDP surpassed Japan for the first time. In the first national security strategy report, Japan regarded North Korea as the number one strategic threat, while China was the so-called "issue of international concern". Then, nine years later, why did the Japanese manipulate the China agenda even more, even calling it "the biggest strategic challenge in history"? The editorial of Japan Times believes that this is the first point of Japan's new national defense strategy and the starting point for a comprehensive understanding of the three major security documents.

In my opinion, listing China as Japan's number one imaginary enemy is the total outbreak of the so-called "China threat theory" by Japanese political forces, and it is a serious misjudgment of the strategic planning of neighboring countries to promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese modernization. In the final analysis, kishida fumio's cabinet wants to promote its political agenda by creating the so-called strongest imaginary enemy, so as to speed up the hollowing out of its peace constitution and completely break through the so-called "exclusive defense". Externally, we should also echo the "Indo-Pacific strategy" that the United States is advancing in an all-round way, strive to be the number one ally of the United States in the region, and further strengthen the Japan-US alliance. One of the so-called all-round strategic competitive means of the United States against China is the alliance strategy. Canada's previously released national security strategy regards China as the number one strategic opponent, which is to surrender the "warlord" to the United States. Japan undoubtedly has the same motive. In addition, as far as the timing is concerned, the Japanese Prime Minister will visit the United States early next year, and Kishida obviously wants to regard these three security documents as meeting gifts.

What should also be vigilant is Japan's follow-up security actions. In view of the fact that Japanese policy makers believe that the national strength gap between Japan and its neighbors has obviously widened for some time, Japan will rely more and more on the strength of the alliance to promote security. Japan was invited to attend the enlarged NATO meeting for the first time this year. Japan has just announced that it will jointly study the so-called sixth-generation fighter, the so-called five-eye alliance+and Ocuss+which have been disturbed by western public opinion for a long time, and so on. Japan will also actively seek to be the first to join. Including the manipulation and intervention in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and even the East China Sea, Japan's future actions will inevitably become more and more intensive, which also means that Sino-Japanese relations will continue to be under pressure in the future.

Direct news: Japan will build its so-called foreign counterattack capability by buying Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. What do you think of this?

Special commentator Guan Yao: The editorial of Japan Times pointed out that apart from understanding the so-called "imaginary enemy starting point" of the three security documents, there are two key issues: First, building the so-called counterattack capability. Second, where does the money for substantially increasing the defense budget come from? According to the daily newspaper, the first question has been solved and confirmed, but the second question is still unclear, that is, where the money comes from, and there is still great uncertainty.

The so-called external counterattack capability, in the military sense, refers to the target search, confirmation and attack on enemy bases or military command and control places. According to kishida fumio's explanation at the congressional hearing this week, the basic idea is to ensure the counterattack capability to enhance deterrence, thus reducing the possibility of missile attacks. Kishida added the precondition of using the so-called external counterattack capability, that is, the enemy has launched an armed attack and Japan is in a "survival crisis". He also promised that Japan would keep the use of counterattack capability to a minimum.

I have noticed that Japan has established the so-called counterattack capability, and missiles are obviously the core. Japanese media have been speculating about Japan's counterattack capability, and they keep talking about China-related speculation data in the so-called latest military report of the Pentagon. The United States claims that China has at least 300 land-based cruise missiles with a range covering Japan and more than 1000 ballistic missiles. This is also the reason why the outside world pays special attention to Japan's search for Tomahawk missiles from the United States for many years, but it has made significant progress in the near future. The axe "Tomahawk" is unusual. The United States launched a large-scale war abroad, and it often used the Tomahawk to strike first. Previously, the United States only sold Tomahawk to Britain, a die-hard ally on the other side of the Atlantic. If an arms sales agreement is reached with Tokyo, Japan will become the second country to sell the American core offensive weapon Tomahawk overseas. Last month, the Japanese Prime Minister met with the President of the United States during a series of East Asian conferences held in Cambodia. Biden called Japan "ahighprioritybuyer" and the so-called "priority buyer". Now it seems that this is a clear signal that the United States sells Japan's Tomahawk, and it is also a substantial impetus to Japan's "security out of control."

Author Guan Yao, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's live broadcast in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.