Is the world getting warmer or colder?

? Controversy: Regarding the topic of "Ice Age" caused by the current cold weather in Europe, Nalis, a spokesman for the World Meteorological Organization, told the media recently that the current cold weather, which killed hundreds of people, does not mean that this winter is the coldest in Europe. The British Meteorological Office believes that the current cold cannot be used to deny global warming. Nalis said that if we recall the winter from 29 to 21, we will find that the cold wave came earlier and lasted longer. It started in December 29 and ran through most of January and February 21. Dan Williams, a spokesman for the British Met Office, also said: "It is normal for some places in Europe to have cold weather conditions at this time of year."

most meteorologists believe that the current cold weather is a short-term regional event, while global warming is a long-term global trend, and there is no connection between them. The cold in Europe does attack people, but in California, USA, which is not out of winter in the northern hemisphere, there was once an abnormal high temperature. The temperature at Long Beach Airport exceeded 3 degrees Celsius, breaking the record in the last 4 years. Some experts of the World Meteorological Organization believe that it is not so easy to simply list a few examples to prove the ice age or global warming, and it requires statistics and analysis of long-term meteorological data and a lot of professional knowledge. At present, the views of the global scientific community have not been completely unified, and the mainstream is to recognize global warming.

Global warming:

Global warming is a "natural phenomenon". When people burn fossil minerals or cut down forests and burn them, they produce many kinds of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. Because these greenhouse gases are highly permeable to visible light from solar radiation and highly absorptive to long-wave radiation reflected by the earth, they can strongly absorb infrared rays from ground radiation, which is often called "greenhouse effect", leading to global warming. The consequences of global warming will redistribute global precipitation, melt glaciers and frozen soil, and raise sea level, which will not only endanger the balance of natural ecosystems, but also threaten human food supply and living environment. Global warming has always been the focus of scientists' attention. On October 14th, 212, the British Met Office said that global warming had stopped for 16 years, which triggered a heated discussion again.

global cooling theory:

? In fact, global cooling is not a new theory. The global cold weather from 1947 to 1976 made many meteorologists exclaim that "the Little Ice Age is coming".

"Global warming is a scam!" When world leaders gathered in Copenhagen to discuss new emission reduction targets, someone outside the meeting made such a slogan. Shortly after the end of this climate summit, which finally reached a non-legally binding treaty, as if to confirm this slogan, a rare cold swept almost the entire northern hemisphere.

In mid-December, 29, a snowstorm swept across Europe, with snow depth exceeding 5 cm in some areas and traffic paralysis. From December 19 to 2, 29, there was a general snowstorm in the eastern United States, and the snow depth in Washington reached 61 cm, the highest since December 1932. On January 6, 21, the lowest temperature in Beijing reached-16.7℃, breaking the record of the lowest temperature in the first half of January since 1971.

the theory of "globalcooling" has been heated up rapidly due to successive snowstorms and severe cold.

The debate is heating up:

? For the more and more frequent extreme weather events, the theories of "global warming" and "global cooling" cannot give a completely convincing explanation.

? Academician Qin Dahe believes that climate warming will lead to an obvious increase in extreme weather events. In recent years, the obvious increase of extreme cold weather events at home and abroad is an example; Coeroli, who supported "the coming of the Little Ice Age", said that during the ice age and interglacial period, the temperature of the earth was very stable, but in the transitional zone, the climate on the earth would become extremely extreme, and extremely hot weather and extremely cold weather might change without any obstacles. "The earth is entering a natural" turning point ".You don't know which extreme it will suddenly turn to. I just want to say that the extreme ice age is as difficult as global warming." The IPCC clearly pointed out in the report that the level of understanding of the assessment of extreme weather frequency and intensity, including cold waves, is still low.

The words of Wang Pinxian, an academician of China Academy of Sciences, may enable us to re-examine the two theories of climate change: "Climate change is happening on the time scale from interannual to over one million years. Different scales of climate change overlap like Russian dolls; Not only do they overlap, but they are also intertwined through interaction, so that it is impossible to correctly understand the shorter process without considering the long process. " He believes that it is not yet possible to judge what period the earth is in according to Milankovic's cycle theory, and more surveys are needed to support it.

researcher Chen Wen revealed: "the cold wave in the northern hemisphere has given us a hint to improve the weather forecasting model." Because the signal of this oscillation is transmitted from the stratosphere to the troposphere, and now the weather prediction mainly focuses on the troposphere, and little attention is paid to the stratosphere. "After improving the model, the stratosphere will be included in the research scope, and the prediction may be more accurate."

Perhaps, in the face of a huge number of complex factors causing climate change and the deviation and deficiency of instruments and data, what scientists can do is to keep studying and make the results closer to the facts.

in my opinion, there are many reasons for the change of climate system, which can be summarized into two categories: natural climate fluctuation and the influence of human activities. The former includes changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, etc. The latter includes the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere caused by human burning fossil fuels and deforestation, the change of sulfide aerosol concentration, the change of land cover and land use.

We should not only pay attention to the laws of climate change in nature, but also not ignore the influence of human beings on the climate. How can we make the climate relatively normal? As an ordinary citizen, what we can do is to protect the environment, save resources, destroy the environment as little as possible, cut down a tree and waste a piece of paper, and do our best to publicize and protect the environment. When these little things make a mickle, environmental protection becomes a trend, and then we will not be uneasy about whether the world is getting cold or warm. . . .

source:/tech/212-2/2/c _ 122728478.htm

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