Why are almost all commodities skyrocketing in 2020?

In recent months, many goods have gone crazy. Corn rose from 1900 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton now. Palm oil rose from 4,500 yuan/ton in May to 7,000 yuan/ton now. Aluminum rose from 1 1000 yuan/ton to 16000 yuan/ton, copper rose from 42000 yuan/ton to 59000 yuan/ton, and the craziest iron ore rose from 500 yuan/ton to1/kloc-0 yuan/ton.

I think that in 2020, under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, commodities should be a bear market. Unexpectedly, the commodities in 2020 came out of a vigorous super bull market!

What is the reason?

The most important thing about commodities is the relationship between supply and demand.

The simplest political economy theory learned in junior high school can explain that when supply exceeds demand, commodities fall, and when supply is less than demand, commodities rise.

To explain the super bull market of commodities in 2020 in detail, we must first have a basic concept: COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, although China quickly controlled it, but the epidemic abroad is much more serious than we thought.

How serious is it? The heads of state of the United States, Britain and France all got the COVID-19 epidemic, not to mention ordinary people. At present, more than 74 million people have been infected and 654.38+6500 people have died worldwide. Now, the number of new infections is increasing by 750,000 every day. Every day, the number of new deaths worldwide is 6.5438+0.3 million, which is still official statistics. The number of infected deaths in marginal rural areas and war-torn areas has been ignored.

People in China are well protected by the China government and heroic medical workers, while people in other countries and regions are not so lucky. In Germany, 6.5438+300,000 COVID-19 patients were diagnosed, and in France, 2.4 million COVID-19 patients were diagnosed. The medical system is on the verge of collapse. This is still a traditional developed country, and the situation in developing countries is even more severe.

When vaccines are not widely injected in COVID-19, isolation is the best way. Many workers in mines and farms have been isolated, so the epidemic has a great impact on the supply side of goods. Due to the shortage of manpower, it is impossible to maintain and the supply of goods is seriously limited.

On the demand side, although it is also affected by the epidemic, the impact is not so great. First of all, although people can't go out at home, the consumption of food has not decreased a lot. Understandably, it is still three meals a day, but eating out has become a solution at home. Secondly, because of the huge impact of the epidemic on the economy, various countries have launched a large number of economic stimulus plans, made a fortune and launched various infrastructure projects. Therefore, although the demand side is affected, the impact is far less than that of the supply side.

Especially in China, because China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, it is intensively producing for the whole world. As the largest manufacturing factory in the world, it exports all kinds of goods to the world. 1 month165438+1month, China's trade surplus reached US$ 74.8 billion, setting a historical record. At present, the freight for overseas shipments in China has increased by two to three times compared with previous years, and it is hard to find a container at the port because it has been sent abroad.

Corresponding to the huge export, China imported a large number of basic commodities, and this year China imported a new high of metals, oil, iron ore, crude oil and soybeans.

Only 1 1 month from 2020:

China imported iron ore10.73 million tons, up 10.9% year-on-year.

China imported 504 million tons of crude oil, up 9.5% year-on-year.

China imported 92.8 million tons, plus 65,438+soybeans shipped in February. In 2001, China imported 65,438+billion tons of soybeans, up by 17% year-on-year.

China imported 90.43 million tons of natural gas, up 3.9% year-on-year.

China imported 6,654.38+0.7 million tons of copper, up 38.7% year-on-year.

China alone imported less coal 10% and 265 million tons of coal than last year. Then sadly, it was discovered that due to too many orders from enterprises, factories stepped up production and electricity was not enough. Because many provinces still rely on burning coal to generate electricity in winter. Without coal, there would be no electricity. For example, Hunan, Zhejiang and other places began to lose power, all corridor lights were turned off, and the air conditioning temperature could not exceed 20 degrees. . . Because of the scarcity of coal, coal also rose to the sky at the end of the year. Thermal coal exceeds 750 yuan/ton, and long-term agreed coal price is only 640 yuan/ton, not to mention high-end coal such as coking coal and coke, which all exceed the highest value in history.

In the global commodity market, the supply side has been greatly affected, while the demand side has little or no impact, or even improved, and global commodities have begun to rise. . .

Let's revisit the politics and economy of junior high school. If the relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced and the supply is less than demand, will it have such a specific impact on commodity prices?

Take grain as an example. This year, global grain production has decreased. As mentioned earlier, the epidemic affected farm employees, including the bad weather in the area. For example, American beans made a wave of hype through drought. If the world's grain shortage is 10%, will food prices only rise by 10%? No, a shortage of 10% will cause an increase of more than 50%. If the food is short of 20%, it will make the food soar. For food, a special commodity, a slight shortage will double the grain.

But for China, there is little pressure on grain, the key staple food, because the grain output in China is still very high this year (thanks to agricultural workers and farmers' uncles). In 2020, the grain planting area in China is 65.438+75.2 million mu, and the total grain output is 65.438+33.9 million Jin, which is close to 670 million tons. China's staple crops, wheat, corn and rice, have increased production for five consecutive years. China has done a good job in the most critical staple food safety. Our self-sufficiency rate in staple food is over 95%, and we have increased our strategic grain reserves. At present, China's land grain reserves exceed 600 million tons, which means that even if China does not produce grain for one year, the grain reserves are enough for all China people to eat for one year. Besides, I really can't. If the food shortage rises, we can save food for livestock, eat less meat and be vegetarian, which can save a lot of food.

China knows the importance of staple food, and can no longer be just needed. We can't let 654.38+400 million people get away with eating.

When the staple food problem is solved, China will need to import a large number of other cash crops and oil crops.

Especially soybeans. Soybean can be said to be an important crop besides staple food. Soybeans can be eaten directly, and can also be used to make tofu and various bean products. Compared with other agricultural products, soybean has several key advantages: 1. Soybean is rich in plant protein, while other crops such as wheat, corn and rice mainly contain starch. The plant protein content of soybean is still very high, and the protein content reaches 75% to 85%. Moreover, soybean not only contains more protein, but also has good quality. The amino acid composition of soybean protein is similar to that of animal protein, and the proportion of amino acids is close to the needs of human body, which is easy to digest and absorb. So, if you are a vegetarian, you will definitely supplement protein by eating a lot of bean products.

Besides protein, soybeans are also rich in oil. The 5-liter barrel soybean oil we bought in the supermarket is extracted from soybeans. Therefore, soybean is a very good agricultural product, which contains not only 75% to 85% of protein, but also 15% of soybean oil, and is full of treasures.

Industrially, we squeeze oil from soybeans at a low temperature of 40-60 degrees to make soybean oil for people to cook and eat. The remaining bean dregs, rich in more than 75% protein, are also very useful. They are used as feed for raising livestock. Bean dregs are a high-quality source of high-quality protein for baby pigs, baby cows and baby sheep, and can also be used as bean dregs/rapeseed meal (rapeseed meal is the residue of rapeseed oil). Small animals are not only vegetarians, but also need to supplement protein to grow so fast. . .

In 20 19, China's own soybean output was180,000 tons, but the demand for edible oil and feed soybean meal was too great. We also import a lot of soybeans from the United States and Brazil, the main soybean producing areas in the world, and the import volume is increasing every year. Because the demand for meat in China is increasing, we need more soybean meal to feed chickens, ducks, cattle, sheep and pigs. . .

In 20 18, we imported 88 million tons of soybeans.

In 20 19, we imported 88.5 million tons of soybeans.

In 2020, we will import a record of more than 654.38 billion tons of soybeans.

In 20 19, we imported 19% soybeans from the United States and 65.2% soybeans from Brazil. We also import soybeans from Argentina, Russia, Ukraine and other countries in the world. In order to ensure the supply of soybeans, China has also vigorously restored and expanded the soybean planting base in Northeast China in recent years, and contracted a large amount of land to grow soybeans in Russia and Ukraine. I can't help it. The domestic demand is too great. In 20 19, the global soybean output was 360 million tons, and China's consumption accounted for a quarter.

China's import volume is large, and a slight disturbance on the supply side will easily cause huge price fluctuations.

This year, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of farm workers in the United States and Brazil has decreased. Coupled with the dry weather, American soybeans rose to the highest level in five years, and the import cost of soybeans exceeded 3,800 yuan/ton. In 2065,438+09, the import cost of soybean was only 2700 yuan/ton. Soybeans rose by 40%.

Palm oil was affected by the COVID-19 epidemic this year. The main producing countries: Malaysian and Indonesian farms have reduced manpower, palm oil lacks fertilization and pest control and maintenance, and palm oil production has decreased. Palm oil rose to a new high in eight years, from 4,500 yuan/ton in 2065,438+09 to 7,000 yuan/ton now, up by 55% and still rising.

The price of copper and aluminum has also risen sharply this year, because the COVID-19 epidemic has reduced the manpower of mines and increased the demand side.

Copper is very useful. Because of its good conductivity, it can be widely used in power and electronics industries, such as wires, computer integrated circuits, cables and so on.

Aluminum can be seen everywhere and used everywhere. Aluminum has low density and light weight. Although it is very soft, it can be made into various aluminum alloys with light weight and high strength, which are widely used in aircraft, automobiles, shipbuilding and other industries. Aluminum is a good conductor of heat, which can be used as various heat exchangers, heat dissipation materials and cookers in industry. Aluminum also has good ductility and is widely used in various cans and candy packaging supplies. There is a dense oxide protective film on the surface of aluminum, which is not easy to be corroded. It is also used to manufacture chemical reactors, medical equipment and oil and gas pipelines.

Moreover, the demand of emerging new energy industries for copper and aluminum is three times that of traditional industries. Copper rose to a seven-year high, close to 60,000 yuan/ton, while 20 19 was only 45,000 yuan/ton, and copper rose by 33%. Aluminum rose to the highest level in three years, 16500 yuan/ton, and only 1 1500 yuan/ton in 20 19 years, up 43%. Moreover, the global stocks of copper and aluminum are declining at present, and may continue to rise after visual inspection.

Finally, talk about the most used metal in industry: iron. Iron comes from iron ore, which is one of the biggest commodities this year. Iron is the skeleton that supports modern society. It can be said that there would be no modern civilization without iron, which accounts for 95% of the metal consumed in the world every year. China is making great efforts to build infrastructure, roads and bridges, high-speed cars and houses. However, there are few high-grade iron ores in China, and most of them need to be imported.

Due to the COVID-19 epidemic, mines in Australia and Brazil, the main producers of high-grade iron ore, lack manpower to reduce production. Under the prospect of economic recovery, iron ore consumption increased, so iron ore began a skyrocketing journey.

Spot iron ore has exceeded 1 100 yuan/ton, approaching 160 USD/ton, and the cost of Australian iron ore is 25 USD/ton. Philip and Rio Tinto estimated that the average price of iron ore this year was $50/ton, and now it is1$60/ton. Iron ore has more than tripled this year, and its price is still rising.

For China, which imports 654.38 billion tons of iron ore a year, the situation is quite passive. The cost per ton of iron ore is $ 654.38+000/ton, which is $65.438+000 billion a year! It is only the origin of high-grade iron ore in the world, which is more concentrated and monopolized than crude oil. The world crude oil producers include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, Libya and Iran. . . But the main producers of iron ore are Australia and Brazil. Of the 65.438 trillion tons of iron ore imported by China in 2065.438+09, Australia accounted for 66% and Brazil accounted for 30%. With the skyrocketing iron ore, China has to spend a lot of money, especially Australia, which is extremely unfriendly to China, to make money. . . The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has repeatedly indicated the risks of iron ore, expecting to reduce the price of iron ore as soon as possible.

My best investment this year is to buy BYD, palm oil and iron ore. Iron ore has made a big profit and has been closed. Although it is expected that iron ore will continue to rise in the future, I don't want to encourage the madness of iron ore. We can make good money here, in the final analysis, we still rely on national luck, and we must resolutely stand with the country. Although, it hurts to watch the crazy growth of iron ore every day. But we should be a man of faith, and not all the money should be earned. The way I can think of to reduce iron ore is to negotiate with beef, wood, coal, lobster and red wine imported from Australia, and we must reduce the price of iron ore. Please read my previous article on the status quo of imported iron ore and steel industry in China: the status quo of steel industry in China.

Finally, regarding iron ore, because this land in China just doesn't produce high-grade iron ore and crude oil, opening the map is a hard model, and there is nothing we can do. After the price of iron ore drops in the future, we can buy more iron ore as a strategic reserve. The storage of iron ore is much more convenient than crude oil. The storage of crude oil is very troublesome and needs to be stored in a special crude oil storage tank. Even so, it will face the problem of worsening instability. Too much talk about crude oil storage is tears. The storage of iron ore is much simpler. This is stone, which does not volatilize or deteriorate. Come back by ship, dig a big hole by the sea, bury it, and dig it out when necessary. This matter has to be done slowly. The domestic demand is too large, and the price of iron ore is easy to go up.

So if you want to invest in commodities, what is the most important thing? After a long period of elaboration, we can clearly draw a conclusion that the most important thing in commodity investment is the relationship between supply and demand. We should choose the varieties with the most obvious change trend of supply and demand, and decisively short when the supply exceeds the demand, and decisively do more when the supply is less than the demand.

Supply and demand-trend is our good friend!

Once the relationship between supply and demand begins to change, the trend will not change in a short time. At this time, you can invest happily in the direction of the trend.

For example, palm oil is the most produced and consumed vegetable oil in the world. It is the oil squeezed from the fruit of palm trees. Palm oil is widely used in food industry, and the main producers are Indonesia and Malaysia. China imports at least 6 million tons of palm oil every year.

Palm trees that produce palm oil grow very slowly. It takes six years from planting to oil production. Palm trees can produce oil continuously for 30 years as long as they are mature. So if there is a shortage of palm oil and the price soars, it is too late to start planting palm trees now. It will take at least six years for new palm oil to come out. Similarly, if there are too many palm trees, palm oil will also plummet. Because palm trees have been raised for six years, farmers will not cut down trees easily. As long as the price of palm oil can cover the processing cost, palm oil will be continuously produced. Therefore, the price of palm oil fluctuated greatly in history, reaching 1 10,000 yuan/ton at the highest and 4,000 yuan/ton at the lowest.

As long as you know the trend of palm oil, whether it is an upward trend or a downward trend, you should go long or short according to the trend.

This is just a general direction, and every commodity has specific details. Palm oil, for example, starts to produce oil in the off-season of 165438+ 10 every year, but it is also the off-season of demand, because palm oil is easy to solidify in winter and cannot be sold. Demand is much lower in winter or oil production is much lower. Only by carefully comparing the details inside can we know whether it is an upward trend or a downward trend.

Palm oil hit a new high this winter, because the obvious decline in supply exceeded the decline in demand. In order to import palm oil, India reduced import tariffs. India imports more than 7 million tons of palm oil every year, more than China, because palm oil is the cheapest vegetable oil compared with soybean oil and vegetable oil, and it is very popular in India.

Last time I asked a friend, what is the most important thing to make an investment? The answer is: keep warm and sensitive to the world, the world is changing every day, feel the change of the world, then find the changing trend, and then resolutely invest.

Then he asked, can you be more specific and how to find the trend change?

The answer is information. The amount of information I know is at least 10 times that of ordinary people. Every day, in addition to completing my job, I spend at least three hours reading through major events, industry news and commodity information at home and abroad. And then stick to it. After reading for half a year, you will find that your understanding of many things will become more and more detailed. Once there is a change, I can make some judgments about the future trend, then correct my logic according to the actual situation, and then I will almost get started. . . Investment is actually a very hard work, and you have to really love the world to stick to it.