Oil prices have changed again! Can I go back to 7 yuan on the 92nd?

The international crude oil price did fall slightly, but the decline had little effect on the overall oil price. Although domestic refined oil products ushered in the second downward adjustment in the year on June 28th, in recent days, international crude oil began to be in a state of shock, and there is great uncertainty about whether oil prices will rise or fall in the future. 1From June 29th to July 29th, international crude oil showed a downward trend as a whole. Take Brent crude oil as an example, it fell by 1.7 USD on June 29th, or by 1.49%. On June 30, it fell by $3.05 or 2.72%; However, judging from the trend of July 1 crude oil, crude oil rose slightly again. By 6: 00 p.m., crude oil had increased by another $2, or 1.86%, and Brent returned to 1 10. Seeing the decline of crude oil in the last two days, many car owners may expect the continuous decline of international crude oil in the future, so that domestic refined oil will be continuously lowered, but I think this wish is unlikely to be realized in the short term.

The recent decline in international crude oil prices is mainly affected by the sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points, which was the largest single interest rate increase in the United States since June 1994. Moreover, according to the current CPI data in the United States, if the inflationary pressure does not drop significantly in the future, the Fed may raise interest rates sharply in July, and the rate of interest rate increase may also be 75 basis points. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates substantially in the future, it will lead to a decrease in market liquidity, which will have a great crowding out effect on commodities, including some commodities such as crude oil. However, in addition to the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, there are still many favorable factors in the international crude oil market, especially Europe's attitude towards Russian crude oil imports, which has a great influence on the trend of crude oil prices. According to Europe's plan, they will reduce their crude oil imports from Russia by 75%, and it is expected to be further reduced by the end of the year. As a result, there will be a certain gap in international crude oil. If Europe further stops importing crude oil from Russia, it is expected that there will be a gap of 3 million to 5 million barrels in the international crude oil market.

Under the background that the international crude oil gap has not been solved, the International Energy Agency has released strategic oil reserves one after another in the past. At present, the strategic oil reserves of many countries have been reduced to historical lows, and they will certainly try their best to replenish them in the future. As a result, the tight supply and demand situation in the international crude oil market will last for a long time. Therefore, it is predicted that before the end of the year, international crude oil may still fluctuate between 100 USD and 120 USD, unless there are some very big negative factors in the international crude oil market in the future, such as the resumption of importing Russian crude oil in Europe, which may lead to a sharp drop in crude oil. Under the background of no obvious drop in crude oil, it is impossible for China's refined oil to drop sharply, so it is impossible for domestic gasoline to return to the 6 yuan era in a short time.

The oil price was in the 6 yuan era from February 2020 to March 20021year. This year, No.92 gasoline was basically less than 7 yuan, and it was even above 5 yuan for a long time. Domestic gasoline prices were relatively low this year, because since the outbreak of the epidemic in February 2020, global production and life have been affected to some extent, resulting in a sharp drop in crude oil prices. Around April 20, 2020, the international crude oil was only about 16 USD. Although the international crude oil price began to rise in May 2020, before March 20021year, the international crude oil price was always below $70, which is also an important prerequisite for the domestic gasoline price to be below $7. However, since May, 20021year, with the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil products have also been rising all the way.

According to the correlation between international crude oil and domestic refined oil, if domestic gasoline is to return to the 6 yuan era, then international crude oil must fall below $70. Is it possible for international crude oil to fall below $70 in the future? I think it is possible, but it will take a long time. Judging from the performance of international crude oil in recent ten years, it is normal for crude oil to fluctuate between 50-80 USD, but if some special events, especially geopolitical conflicts, occur, it may have a great impact on crude oil and drive the price of crude oil up at any time.

However, once geopolitical conflicts are eased, oil prices will fall sharply. If geopolitical conflicts are eased in the future, and if Europe can resume Russian crude oil imports, the international crude oil gap will be alleviated. In addition, the world has started to raise interest rates. In the context of successive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, other central banks around the world may follow suit. After the liquidity is reduced, global economic growth will slow down, and even some countries will fall into recession. Therefore, the international demand for crude oil will decline. Combined with these factors, the international crude oil price may fall. It is not excluded that international crude oil may fall below $70 by 2023 or 2024, and domestic gasoline may return to the 6 yuan era.