What is the cause and effect of Thaksin's incident? Friends who know, say it briefly.

15 years ago, there was a military coup in Thai politics, and the then prime minister was arrested by the military at the airport. 15 later, in the heavy rain the night before, Thailand staged another coup that had been rumored for a long time-the coup plotter loyal to Thai army commander-in-chief Sonti announced the abolition of the constitution, the dissolution of parliament and the caretaker government.

Thailand's ruling Thai Rak Thai Party, controlled by Thaksin Shinawatra, showed no obvious resistance. Corresponding to Thaksin's frustration that "the people will not agree to a military coup", the guards guarding the Prime Minister's Office did not resist, and city residents also presented flowers to the soldiers who staged the coup.

Why did Thailand have a military coup against Thaksin's government?

The Thai media gave a "thunderbolt" evaluation of the coup, and many Thai cabinet members, including Thaksin, smelled gunpowder just before the coup. Although Thaksin quickly decided to issue a national emergency statement through TV 9 controlled by the Thai government, it was too late. Before his statement was read, TV 9 was taken over by the coup soldiers.

This military coup seems sudden, but it is actually the result of months of indecision in Thailand's political contradictions.

In June 5438+10, Thaksin's family sold most of its shares to Singapore's Temasek Company, which caused a strong shock in Thailand. Some anti-Thaksin organizations believe that there is serious fraud in this transaction of Thaksin family, which has caused losses to Thailand's national economy. Since then, anti-Thaksin activities have continued, and the call for Thaksin to step down has become louder and louder, which has brought harm to Thailand's political, economic and social stability.

In view of this situation, Thaksin announced the dissolution of the lower house of parliament on February 24 and scheduled a new general election on April 2. However, the general election on April 2 was declared invalid by the Constitutional Court on the grounds of "fraud", and several core members of the Election Committee were dismissed and imprisoned in July. The political situation in Thailand has once again fallen into a quagmire.

In August this year, the new election committee of Thailand was established, and King Bhumibol had earlier decided to hold another general election in June 65438+1October 65438+May this year. However, the emergence of the new election commission did not bring dawn to the political situation in Thailand. Various political contradictions still exist, and various disputes are still difficult to calm down. Obviously, the original election schedule cannot be completed as scheduled. At this moment, the call for Thaksin to step down is rising again. The People's Democratic Alliance of Thailand, a major anti-Thaksin NGO, was scheduled to hold another large-scale protest March on September 20, demanding that Thaksin leave Thai politics.

The counter-offensive route has been designed

As the most important commander of the coup, Thai Army Commander-in-Chief Songti said on the evening of September 19 that the Thai Army, Navy, Air Force and Police decided to jointly launch a military coup to overthrow Thaksin's regime in view of the protracted political contradictions, long-term social and political chaos and serious damage to the national economy.

Thai media said that although Songti often showed a gesture of not asking about political affairs and made it clear that the military would not intervene in domestic politics, he and some military and police leaders had already designed a counterattack route and chose Thaksin to go abroad to participate in a series of international conferences in the near future and launch a military coup.

Direct cause

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Thaksin hinted that he still wanted to be prime minister.

Thai caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is attending the United Nations General Assembly meeting in new york, USA, said on June 8 18 that he himself has not made a decision on whether to take the post of Prime Minister again after the new general election. So the reason for this coup is probably because of Thaksin's position.

Thaksin, who attended a meeting in new york on the same day, said that he was still a candidate of the Thai Party in Tayrac and would continue to perform his duties as chairman of the Thai Party in Tayrac. However, if the Thai Party of Tayrac wins the general election, he will have to consider whether to serve as prime minister again. Thaksin indicated that he might announce his decision on the election registration day.

Earlier, news from within the Thai Lakthai Party led by Thaksin said that Thaksin had decided to temporarily withdraw from politics after the election.

Thaksin also said that the Thai opposition has no right to boycott the general election held in early April this year because they are afraid of losing in the general election.

On April 2 this year, the election of the House of Commons held in Thailand was boycotted by the main opposition parties. The opposition party considered the election unconstitutional and demanded that the election result be cancelled. In May this year, the Constitutional Court of Thailand declared the election invalid. The new round of general election was postponed to around1mid-October 165438+.

Compared with a series of unsuccessful "forced palace" before, this time the opposition took advantage of Thaksin's departure, and the "Please Move" army finally took control of the political situation.

Deep reason

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The "powerful general manager" met with the rebellion of the rich

This year is Thaksin's sixth year as Prime Minister of Thailand and his second term. During his reign, various contradictions in Thailand intensified: the uneven distribution of social interests, the improvement of farmers' welfare, and the impact on the interests of the middle class, and Thailand formed a situation in which "the countryside surrounded the city and the city surrounded Thaksin"; Improper handling of social relations and the relationship between Thaksin's government and the military and the royal family have led to the weakening of political core support; Thaksin's ruling character was not recognized by the upper level, and he became prime minister in the form of general manager, which caused many dissatisfaction.

Commercial fraud: using political resources for personal gain

The fuse that triggered the coup was the stock trading violation at the end of this year 1.

From the end of last year, some media in Thailand said that as early as three years after Thaksin became prime minister, his family assets had multiplied several times, forming a monopoly in many industries, while other large consortia in Thailand generally closed down after the financial crisis, which was very slow compared with Thaksin's family businesses.

Such an amazing asset growth rate has aroused great concern among Thai people, and many people suspect that he used his position to make profits for the company. Therefore, the overwhelming voice of criticism and condemnation has made Thaksin, as prime minister, extremely passive politically. In this context, Thaksin chose to sell part of his company's property.

654381October 23, Thaksin sold 49.6% of the assets of his Sinava Group to Temasek at a sky-high price of $654,380.9 billion.

Thaksin's children buy shares from the holding company at a price of 1 baht (US$ 0.0025) per share to avoid being taxed. A few days later, they sold these shares to Temasek at a price of $65,438 +0.28 per share. In Thailand, people don't have to pay asset income tax. In this way, Thaksin's 23-year-old eldest daughter Pintongta has assets of $300 million at once, and the second beneficiaries are his son and a relative, who will get assets of $475 million. This incident angered Thaksin's opponents.

Contradiction between the rich and the poor: City people are very dissatisfied with Thaksin.

After Thaksin came to power, he brought much-needed political stability to Thailand and led the people out of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. Thai Love Thai Party has won the love of grassroots farmers. Before 2000, Thailand's per capita GDP exceeded $2,500, and it was rated as a primary developed country by the World Bank. However, 80% of Thailand's population lives in rural areas, and tens of millions of farmers live below the poverty line. After Thaksin was elected as prime minister, the income gap between the rich and the poor dropped from 9.3 times to 8 times.

Thaksin's economic policies hurt the interests of many urban residents. For example, the "30 baht medical plan" has reduced the profits of hospitals and the income of doctors. The educational reform carried out by the government is struggling. More than 1000 young teachers in 20 universities have no hope of salary increase because of their participation in Thaksin's plan to leave public office. The shareholding system of state-owned enterprises makes the employees of tap water, gas and electric power companies greatly dissatisfied.

Therefore, some analysts said that on the surface, it was this military coup that embarrassed Thaksin. In fact, this is a signal of the rise of the new middle class in Thailand. Polarization, a social chronic disease that has caused headaches in Southeast Asian countries, is becoming the "culprit" that triggered a new round of turmoil. In Thailand, "city dwellers" finally overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra supported by "country people".

Upper-level relations: Thaksin's relationship with the king is very delicate.

As a prime minister, he should have a very harmonious relationship with the royal family in a modern country with constitutional monarchy. However, Thaksin's relationship with the Thai royal family is not harmonious, and the Thai royal family has the highest public support and military support.

Previously, the Thai royal family was divided into two groups: those who supported Thaksin and those who did not. At the same time, the king's attitude towards Thaksin's government is still unclear. Many officers speculated that the king did not support Thaksin's government, so they boldly participated in the coup.

The king of Thailand's greatest reliance is not on Thaksin, but on General Prem Tinsulanonda, Chairman of the Privy Council of Thailand. General Bing served as the supreme commander of the Thai military and served as the Prime Minister of Thailand for eight and a half years. He is over 80 years old.

Before he went to the United Nations, Thaksin once said: A man I once respected did something against me behind the scenes. Many people speculate that "a man I once respected" in his mouth refers to General Bing. This also marks the publicity of the deteriorating relationship between Thaksin and the military factions.

The core figure of this coup, the commander-in-chief of the army, Sonti, is the successor appointed by the successor of the military commander and a senior general of the military school. It is reported that Thaksin intends to succeed General Sonti, so Sonti took the initiative in advance when Thaksin attended the UN meeting.

Ruler

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Be prime minister in the form of president

Most Thais believe in Buddhism, are very kind to people and are very reserved in life. Compared with the gentleness of Thais, Thaksin's personality is somewhat flamboyant, and many problems are handled in the way of the company's president, that is, direct decisions are made and no meetings are held to discuss them. His personality is not recognized by the upper class, and many Thais have objections.

Thaksin has great ambitions since he was a child. According to Ba Shuo, his primary school teacher, he once asked the teacher "Is there a school specializing in prime ministers", which surprised Ba Da. He received master's and doctor's degrees in criminal justice from Eastern Kentucky University and Houston State University, and then he served as the Royal Police. After working for several years, he devoted himself to business. Later, Thaksin and his family members set up a huge business group "Sinava Company", and he became the richest man in Thailand. 200 1, as prime minister.

It can be seen that many of Thaksin's life experiences are related to toughness: he was a policeman and a president. ...

The character of "president" as prime minister injected fresh blood into Thailand's long-standing "military government" at that time.

Therefore, Thaksin's first term can be described as infinite scenery. In July 2003, the debt borrowed from the International Monetary Fund during the financial crisis was paid off two years ahead of schedule. On the political stage, he dealt with complex political issues by means of credit business, and launched the "Asian Cooperation Dialogue" and the "Strategy of Developing Economic Cooperation in Southeast Asia". At home and in the south, when riots broke out, he folded paper cranes to pray for peace. During the bird flu, he ate chicken in public. These have won the admiration of the Thai people.

Thaksin is resolute, capable and decisive, which is also the key to his success in managing the economy. However, in politics, Thaksin's character has more or less evolved into arbitrariness. In the struggle between Thaksin and media tycoon Lin Mingda, this operation method is particularly obvious.

-Lin Mingda has a close personal relationship with Thaksin. Before Thaksin became prime minister, they worked together as entrepreneurs to overcome the financial crisis. 200 1 After Thaksin became prime minister, Lin Mingda's media almost became the mouthpiece of Thaksin's government. In 2004, Thaksin's government specially approved Lin Mingda's talk show "Every Week in Thailand" to be broadcast on Channel 9 of the official TV station. However, after Thaksin was re-elected as prime minister in February 2005, Lin Mingda was gradually left out in the cold and received less and less government assistance in business. Lin Mingda, who felt "paying a lot", was resentful and attacked Thaksin in the "Weekly Thailand" program. Soon, the Thai government banned the program on the grounds of "insufficient evidence and endangering social stability". Lin Mingda knows the media very well. He holds a rally in the Poetry Park in Bangkok's financial district every Friday to protest against the government and refute Thaksin's dictatorship. Because of Lin Mingda's interview and Thaksin's own methods, the government was "very hurt".

Since the beginning of this year, Thaksin has remained stubborn and tough in the political confrontation in Thailand. However, the opposition ignored Thaksin's democratic procedures and insisted on fighting to the end. Thaksin had to declare a "rest". However, shortly after that, his tough character became obvious again. He returned to the post of Prime Minister and said before going to the UN General Assembly that "I don't know if I will leave".

This coup, for Thaksin, can be said to be "the president of Ye Cheng, the failed president."