Call for housing prices in China-

We have no reason to spread false information and continue to fool the people. According to the cyclical law of economic development, prosperity-recession-adjustment-recovery, the real estate market in China is in recession, and it is far from the time of adjustment. Some media exaggerate the adjustment of the property market because it must be consistent with the official. In fact, the past 2008 was only the initial stage of the recession. The signs exposed in 2009 show that it is in a serious recession. It is expected that the property market will start to adjust on 20 1 1, including product structure adjustment, development mode adjustment and housing supply mode adjustment.

What we need to do now is to conform to the market rules and end the recession as soon as possible. Ending the recession one year ahead of schedule will reduce the number of house slaves by 65,438+10,000, create more than 1 10,000 jobs for first-tier cities, and resolve the long-term social contradictions in China in advance. The best way to end the recession is not the introduction of new policies by the government, nor can monetary policy stimulate it. Instead, the current house price will be reduced step by step to stimulate the market to enlarge the transaction and quickly solve the "three high products" and "one chicken feather" left over from the bursting of the China property market bubble.

I repeat here that the so-called "three high products" are projects with high land prices, high construction and installation costs and high operating expenses. These products are nearly 400 million square meters in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country; The so-called chicken feather in one place is the residential land hoarded in the land bubble era. There are 70 large and medium-sized cities in China with an area of nearly 65,438+billion square meters. If calculated according to the average plot ratio of 2, these residential sites can build 2 billion square meters of houses. The evil consequences of this three-high product and chicken feathers will begin to appear in the second half of 2009, and it will take a year and a half or even two years to completely solve it.

In September last year, since the three central ministries and commissions began to introduce policies to stimulate consumption, the government has actually reduced the expenditure of buyers by more than 20% in terms of taxes and fees and central bank interest, but we regret to see that house prices have not been reduced by 20%. We admit that some policies are lagging behind, but the reduction and exemption of 5.5% business tax has been implemented very quickly, and the market reaction is not great. The central bank's preferential interest rate of 30% and the mortgage of1100,000 can reduce the expenditure of 6.5438+0.7 million, which is not too heavy. Similarly, commercial banks are not only very cumbersome to implement, but also have not played their due role in stimulating the market.

To tell the truth, many local governments have actually become senior salespeople, and they do not hesitate to use local finance to buy houses for developers. Some use taxpayers' money to buy buildings that developers can't sell in various names, and then rent them out or sell them to various buyers at low prices. For example, the Shanghai municipal government buys the developer's building as a talent apartment, the Changsha municipal government subsidizes 80,000 low-and middle-income buyers, and the Shenzhen municipal government academician subsidizes 2 million to directly digest the unsold high-end houses and villas, and so on. Where else can you find such a good government?

However, the market has to ask, how many houses can the government afford to buy? How much can the government digest the stock of 400 million square meters of new houses? It is also a question whether the government needs the approval of the National People's Congress when making these decisions. You know, all this money is financial income, and the extra-budgetary expenditure of finance must go through NPC. This is not a procedural issue, but a basic procedural issue. To put it more seriously, it is a matter of principle. Despite these factors, it would be good if it could stimulate the market. However, the reality we see is that we cannot.

All the contradictions are centered on housing prices. If the house price does not fall to the right place, the market expectation will not change, the number of people who can afford to buy a house will not increase, and the transaction will not enlarge rapidly, then our stimulus consumption will become empty talk. More importantly, because market expectations cannot be changed, commercial banks are afraid to lend, which directly affects the rapid recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises and the real economy. The slow recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises and the real economy directly affects social employment. The ecological chain of the whole economy is still unable to enter a virtuous circle.

For those who buy a house now, looking back a year later, the down payment is gone. The National Development and Reform Commission recently released the data of 65438+February 2008. House prices in Shenzhen dropped 18.4% compared with 2007. Obviously, the 20% down payment will be gone in one year. Yesterday in Shenzhen, in fact, in many cities today, the decline of some cities will greatly exceed that of Shenzhen this year, such as Changsha, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi 'an, Chongqing and Dalian, and the decline this year is likely to exceed that of Shenzhen. How can this enhance market confidence?

I advocate that house prices drop to the right position quickly because we must treat the current house prices rationally. In the current property market, the skyrocketing housing prices are the cause and the falling housing prices are the result. To understand this causal relationship, we must know that before the macro-economy turns to recovery, house prices in major cities in China will always fall, and what the government should do is to shorten the recession and adjustment period as much as possible, instead of going against the economic laws and keeping house prices at a high level, which will only be counterproductive.