Cheerilee year-end review②｜After the hustle and bustle, the song of ice and fire of new energy vehicles

2019 is definitely a watershed year for China’s new energy vehicles. After the automobile market began to decline in 2018, the sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow for a period of time, showing a unique trend. And when the market ushered in the largest subsidy decline in history, the sales of new energy vehicles began to follow the footsteps of traditional vehicles, falling one after another. The cold winter of the car market spread to the new energy vehicle market. Some new car players finally couldn't stand it anymore and were directly eliminated. Most of the new players with strength were also struggling to support themselves.

At the same time, only with competition can we improve. It can be seen that as the competition in the new energy vehicle market becomes more intense, car companies have also stimulated their potential, constantly releasing or launching new models, and doing their best to showcase their best products. During this year, all powerful new car companies have basically completed mass production and delivery. However, some sales are rising, while others are not interested in them. There are only a handful of leading companies with high reputations. Many traditional car companies have also arranged for their new energy models to meet with consumers, and there are basically no absentees.

Technically, there are also breakthroughs in battery life, intelligent connectivity, and autonomous driving, especially in terms of battery life. Nowadays, the 400km battery life is no longer a thing, and the latest models are sprinting towards 500km, 600km or higher battery life. The future new energy vehicle market must be determined by the core technical strength and product strength.

In 2019, the new energy vehicle market is experiencing both hot and cold situations. At the end of the year, we might as well review this period of Song of Ice and Fire.

Traditional car companies: Are they all in? Independent companies are still ahead

In 2019, basically all major traditional car companies released new energy models, with few companies absent. Self-owned brands moved quickly in the early stages and now have many models to choose from, still maintaining their leading momentum. Joint ventures and foreign-owned brands have also followed suit. They have proven products and have announced their future product plans, saying they will vigorously promote the electrification process.

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Still leading independent brands

Independent brands are moving faster due to their foresight in new energy. By 2019, there are already many blooming scenes.

As a leader in new energy vehicles, BYD relies on the Dynasty series to continuously update its models and has a decisive influence in the new energy vehicle market. The range of the Qin Pro EV super version launched in May is 520km, far ahead of the 400km level of joint ventures and foreign investors. Geely Automobile is divided into two directions. One is to adapt its traditional models to new energy sources, and the other is to launch a separate new energy brand - Geometry. The Geometry A, launched in April, has an avant-garde design and is in line with the tastes of young people.

Between traditional car companies and new car manufacturers, GAC New Energy and BAIC New Energy have leveraged the traditional car manufacturing strengths accumulated by GAC and BAIC respectively, and deeply integrated the characteristics of new car manufacturers to launch the Aion series. and EU series. Among them, Aion?S and Aion?LX are very competitive among models of the same level. Aion? LX, launched in October, has led electric vehicles to break through the 600km cruising range mark and break into higher fields.

In 2019, Great Wall Motors captured a group of car owners with its compact and exquisite Euler series, and also made major moves in the layout of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Although GAC, SAIC, and Changan have also launched new energy models, their best-selling models are still fuel vehicles, and the influence of new energy vehicle products is weak. The volume of new energy models of other independent brands is even weaker.

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Ambitious joint ventures and foreign-funded brands

In 2019, mainstream joint ventures and foreign-funded traditional car brands also kept pace with independent brands in the field of new energy vehicles. basically launched their own products. Among them, German and Japanese products are stronger, while American products are weaker. Although the overall competitiveness of their new energy vehicle products is weaker than that of independent brands, they have announced their future product plans and stated that they will vigorously promote the electrification process, showing their strong ambitions.

Volkswagen, the representative of the German brand, currently does not focus on its new energy products in China. Passat, Bora, Golf and other pure electric models have a cruising range that is not satisfactory compared with its own brand models. However, the product plan at the "Meet the New Volkswagen" conference is very unusual. The planning of the ID.? series of models is exciting. The first ID.? mass-produced car will soon meet with consumers. At the end of the year, the German BMW EQC and Audi E-tron also entered the domestic market, but their prices are indeed very expensive.

The Japanese joint ventures are represented by Guangmoto VE-1 and Guangfeng iA5. Toyota has also established a cooperative company with BYD, and will jointly develop pure electric vehicles bearing the Toyota logo in the future. Guangmoto also has plans for future electric vehicles.

As for the electric vehicle plan, the American Ford has frequently released and revised its plan. In 2019, it proposed the "330 Plan." But no matter how many new energy vehicles are planned, the current JMC Ruijie EV does not have any characteristics. Overall, in terms of joint ventures and foreign-invested pure electric vehicles, German and Japanese products currently have something to look forward to, while American products are still weak.

Newly built cars: Sailing against the current? It’s not easy at all

When it comes to new energy vehicles, new carmakers cannot be ignored. It is their cross-border entry that promotes the rapid development of this industry, especially in intelligent networking and autonomous driving technology. However, automobiles are a technology-intensive, talent-intensive, and capital-intensive industry. In the final analysis, it requires money, a lot of money. While electric vehicles have not yet become popular and the car market is experiencing a cold winter, companies that make cars cannot sell many units and are currently unable to make a profit; companies that have not made cars are even harder to find in the capital market where the heat has faded. Continuous infusion of blood to support company operations. New car companies face a very real problem - "worry" about money. I am afraid that except Evergrande, who is not short of money, everyone else is worried about money, and it is not easy.

In 2019, the new car companies that have the loudest voice in the market are the leading companies that can deliver a large number of cars, including NIO, WM Motor and Xpeng.

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NIO in Difficulty

When talking about China’s new car companies, NIO is the first to be named. In 2019, incidents such as layoffs, spontaneous combustion recalls, and stock prices hitting record lows have repeatedly pushed NIO to the forefront. Sales plummeted in the second quarter, and Weilai reached its lowest point this year. However, almost at the same time, Weilai delivered a new model ES6 with a higher mileage and survived the difficult moment. At the end of December, NIO held the third NIO Day in Shenzhen, shouted "Believe in better", and announced another new model EC6. It seems that NIO is still confident about the future. However, it is undeniable that Weilai burns money too quickly and is currently in a dilemma of lack of money. Li Bin was also dubbed "the most difficult person in the automotive industry in 2019" because of the troubles of raising money everywhere.

Next, whether Weilai has a future depends on whether it can find new investors to maintain the company's operations. Personally, I really hope that Weilai can continue to develop, and I want to see if it can achieve its profit expectations ten years after its establishment. From a time perspective, the journey is already halfway through. However, even if the sponsor is found, NIO should think more seriously about cutting costs and spend money where it should be spent most.

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Innocent Xpeng

In 2019, Xpeng Motors won two awards due to “G3 2020 battery life upgrade” and “Xpeng P7 release” The incident also became a hot topic for a while.

Logically speaking, it is absolutely a good thing to upgrade models and make products and technologies better. Unfortunately, human nature is like this. When you see others paying the same price but getting better results, you will have a sense of imbalance. The upgrade of the G3? 2020 model caused complaints. Xiaopeng Motors did not carefully consider the feelings of old car owners beforehand. But in terms of product progress, I support Xpeng. I hope that one day Xpeng will have enough confidence to adjust the prices of its products according to actual conditions and needs like Tesla, without having to worry too much. Xpeng P7, which combines advantages in appearance, battery life, power, technology, quality and other aspects, was also a hot spot at the Guangzhou Auto Show for pre-sale.

However, in the face of Tesla's domestic deliveries, the Xpeng P7, which will be launched in the first half of next year, should be under considerable pressure.

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Weima's mixed feelings of sorrow and joy

Compared with Weilai, Weima's financing in 2019 was relatively smooth, so the financial pressure is not that great. However, in 2019, WM Motor was involved in a lawsuit with Geely and was sued for a claim of 2.1 billion, making life uncomfortable. In 2018, Weimar hoped to complete 100,000 sales in 2019, but it actually only completed about 1/5, which can be said to be a boast.

At present, among the top three new car manufacturers, WM's existing models (EX5, EX6 Plus) have relatively the lowest pricing, and their battery life and vehicle quality are not bad. This positioning is China seems to be more conducive to long-term development.

In addition to the top three mentioned above, new car companies have many stories to tell in 2019. Before 2020, AIWAYS launched its first mass-produced model U5, and Tianji also announced that it had rolled off its first mass-produced model ME7. These two companies look more promising, and their subsequent sales are worthy of attention. Although brands such as Ideal, Leading, and Qiantu have produced cars, they have all encountered the embarrassing situation of low sales. On the contrary, Hezhong Automobile achieved a surge in sales by joining forces with the movie "Nezha" for cross-border marketing. As for HiPhi, which made a high-profile appearance, like its predecessor FF, let’s mass-produce it first and then talk about other things.

Among the new car manufacturers, the only one that is not worried about money is Evergrande. With his strong family background, Boss Xu continued to "buy, buy, buy" in 2019, acquiring and investing in many companies. Now Evergrande's car-making territory has reached a scale. This is a unique and unique route that cannot be imitated by others, but there is still a question mark as to whether this route can lead to the end.

Intruder Tesla: The biggest threat

When it comes to China’s new energy vehicle market, a powerful foreign intruder must be mentioned-Tesla. Although Tesla vehicles had several fire incidents in 2019, this still cannot stop its rapid development.

As the originator of new car companies, Tesla is indeed very powerful and worthy of research and study by all Chinese car companies. It only took less than a year from the groundbreaking of the Shanghai factory to the mass production of models. This speed is really too fast. It proves that as long as the path is right, car manufacturing in China can be very efficient.

Just recently, Tesla delivered the first batch of Model 3 to external car owners in Shanghai. It is said that Tesla’s Shanghai factory can now produce more than 3,000 cars per week. The current localization rate of Model 3 parts is 30%. Musk announced at the delivery ceremony that Model Y will be produced in Shanghai and Model 3 will be 100 localized by the end of 2020. The price of the domestic Model 3 is below the 300,000 mark, which is surprising enough. When 100 is localized, Tesla's price may drop further, which will put considerable pressure on other new energy vehicles, whether they are traditional car companies or new car manufacturers. But new car companies should face greater pressure, which can be said to be the biggest threat they face.

I hope that Tesla’s domestic production will bring about a catfish effect, making the entire new energy vehicle market more active, rather than introducing an alien species and causing the extinction of local species.

Conclusion: Is the competition forever?

The drama of the new energy vehicle market in 2019 has come to an end. After the hustle and bustle, the big waves washed away, and A Song of Ice and Fire was performed. Some have left the stage forever, while others are still standing on the stage to welcome the opening of 2020 and begin to face a new round of competition.

But the market environment in 2020 may be even worse. Domestic new car manufacturers, independent brands, pure electric vehicles under joint venture brands, and Tesla will engage in more open and fierce competition. It will become more difficult to stay on this stage. I hope that all car companies can sum up their experience, think proactively, and cope with the challenges in 2020.

In any case, the traces left now are the background color of the future new energy vehicle picture.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.