Is electric heavy truck a joke?

At present, the new energy vehicle industry has formed a division of labor opinion of "negotiating hydrogen with lithium", and this "consensus" even appears in the new draft development plan of new energy vehicles. In fact, lithium batteries have a high degree of marketization and a fast promotion speed. In the scene of lithium and hydrogen, hydrogen and electricity, which are still in the industrialization stage, have no advantage, and the "consensus" of "negotiating hydrogen with lithium" may change.

Recently, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published a reply to the proposal of "Electrification of Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery Vehicles" of the two sessions in 2020 in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. Its main contents include that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology agrees with Zeng Yuqun's suggestion and will formulate a promotion guide for electrification of heavy trucks and construction machinery vehicles. It also mentioned that the Ministry of Finance will set up financial subsidies to support the electrification of heavy trucks.

Figure 1? Official reply from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

Insufficient subsidy is an important reason for the slow development of pure electric heavy trucks. Coupled with the restriction of long distance and heavy load on pure electric technology, the field of heavy trucks is considered as the "reserved land" for hydrogen and electricity.

With the emergence of a large number of pure electric heavy truck models and the demonstration and promotion of power exchange mode, the heavy truck market is no longer exclusive to fuel cells; After the subsidy, pure electric heavy trucks may "squeeze" hydrogen heavy trucks out of the last "reserved place" in the vehicle field. In the field of passenger cars, fuel cells once had a history of high hopes, but they lost the opportunity because their development speed was not as fast as that of lithium batteries. An executive of a leading enterprise lamented that "the fuel cell technology has been completely replaced or partially replaced, and it is not impossible for the industry to be forced to withdraw from the market competition without hard work". Where is the way out for hydrogen heavy trucks or hydrogen cars? Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of passenger cars, it is necessary to speed up cost reduction and marketing.

1, pure electric heavy trucks are threatening.

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 20 19, the total sales volume of heavy trucks in China was about1170,000, which reached a new high and was also the fastest growing market segment in the cold winter. It is predicted that the heavy truck market will still maintain the sales volume of 100- 165438+ 10,000 vehicles in the next three years. At the same time, the demand of heavy trucks for power batteries or hydrogen is much greater than that of passenger cars. Take pure electric heavy trucks as an example, the power battery is between 170-400KWh (the capacity of foreign batteries is between 240-550KWh), far exceeding the level of passenger cars below 100KWH, and the potential market scale is objective.

Whether for lithium batteries with long-term overcapacity or fuel cells that have just started, electrification of heavy trucks is a very important channel for capacity digestion. The so-called "using lithium to negotiate hydrogen" is just a kind word to ease the controversy, and it is inevitable that lithium and hydrogen will permeate each other. The lithium battery industry is more mature, more market-oriented and infiltrated earlier.

Hydrogen Cloud Chain understands that many enterprises laid out electric heavy trucks long before Zeng Yuqun put forward this proposal: internationally, Tesla's electric truck Semi has been released, and traditional giants such as Volvo, Mann, Scania and DAF have also released pure electric heavy trucks; In the domestic market, including BYD, China Heavy Duty Truck, faw liberation, Dongfeng, Kaiwo Group, Universiade Automobile, Gaomai New Energy, Valin, Zoomlion, Shaanxi Automobile, Xuzhou Xugong, Hubei Sanhuan, AVIC Changzheng, Jiangling Heavy Duty Truck and Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, all well-known domestic commercial vehicle enterprises have laid out pure electric heavy trucks.

On the market side, in 20 19, China new energy heavy trucks soared against the trend, with sales reaching 5036 vehicles, an increase of 665.35% compared with 20 18! Among them, BYD performed the most brilliantly, with the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks reaching 2,853, accounting for 56.65% of the market, accounting for half of the country.

Although "long-distance and heavy-duty scene is more suitable for fuel cell vehicles" is a cliche, with the gradual breakthrough of pure electric heavy truck technology, the reduction of cost and the demonstration and promotion of power exchange mode, many problems are being solved, and pure electric heavy trucks have emerged.

2. Hydrogen heavy trucks are in the ascendant.

Different from the long-awaited pure electric heavy truck, the hydrogen energy heavy truck will usher in the "first year" in 2020.

Hydrogen Cloud Chain According to the statistics of public information, there are fuel cell heavy truck projects in Shandong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Ningxia, Shanxi and other provinces and cities in China, among which the demonstration project of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck has been clearly signed to Changshu and Ningdong chemical bases. Specifically, Shanghai Rebuilding, Changshu High-tech Zone Management Committee and Toyota will jointly build a demonstration application project of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck; Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base, Ningxia Jingneng Ningdong Power Generation, Hydrogen Power, Shanghai Remodeling, Suyun Technology and Ningxia Haizhuojin all signed cooperation agreements. There are no more than 100 vehicles running on domestic highways, including experimental vehicles.

Table 1? National Fuel Cell Heavy Truck Project

At the same time, global car companies are also accelerating their layout, such as: Toyota holding hands with Kenworth, Honda holding hands with Isuzu, Hyundai holding hands with Cummins, Nicolai holding hands with Iveco and Wei Chai holding hands with Ballard; In the first quarter of this year, the United States officially released the roadmap of fuel cell heavy truck technology, and Europe issued a joint statement on fuel cell heavy truck, which injected and increased strong expectations into the market.

3. How does the hydrogen heavy truck face the market crisis?

Twenty years ago, even in the field of passenger cars, fuel cells were considered as a better substitute. However, due to the rapid development of lithium battery technology and the decline of cost, lithium battery has quickly become the mainstream of passenger car market, and the application scenario of hydrogen battery has been compressed to the commercial vehicle field.

Judging from the models, the types of pure electric heavy trucks currently on sale include dump trucks, dump garbage trucks and cleaning trucks. 20 19 pure electric dump trucks account for the highest proportion, reaching 56.57%; Secondly, the market share of pure electric dump trucks is19.94%-pure electric heavy trucks have achieved the breakthrough of "short distance and heavy load", while the advantage of hydrogen heavy trucks in "long distance and heavy load" is only "long distance". In other words, hydrogen heavy trucks no longer have obvious advantages in short-distance and low-frequency transportation scenarios such as muck trucks, closed logistics parks and sanitation vehicles in cities.

If the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly proposes that the Ministry of Finance will set up subsidies for electrification of heavy trucks, the market prospect of hydrogen heavy trucks will be even more severe in the future.

The hydrogen cloud chain believes that the cost of domestic fuel cells has dropped rapidly. Take the bus as an example. Up to now, the price of BYD 10 meter bus has exceeded 700,000, which is lower than 2 million before and after 20 15. Under the limited scale, the fuel cell bus has dropped to below 654.38+0.5 million or even lower, and it is still falling rapidly. Recently, Guo Hong Hydrogen Energy introduced a stack price of 1.999 yuan /kw, which further accelerated the cost reduction of fuel cells. The rest of the stack companies told the hydrogen cloud chain that if the market needs it, they have the ability to follow the price in Guo Hong. What's more, the person in charge of the manufacturer bluntly said that the stack price will drop to 1000 yuan /KW after three years.

Now that the cost reduction channel has been opened, only by making a breakthrough in the promotion speed can the hydrogen heavy truck avoid the risk of further weakening the advantages of the "heavy load" scene and further compressing the market. In addition, the "long-distance" advantage is not easy to be replaced, and the future of hydrogen-electric heavy trucks will be guaranteed.

As Professor Gao mentioned at the committee of 100 of Electric Vehicles, "In view of the situation that various technical routes are chasing each other, hydrogen fuel cell technology must stand out and reach the goal of one million vehicles in 2035." This is the last line of defense!

Hydrogen cloud chain believes that there is little room for the cost reduction of lithium batteries without major material breakthroughs. The cost reduction of hydrogen electricity has just begun, and there is still more than 80% room for cost reduction. When the cost balance point of lithium battery and hydrogen battery is reached, hydrogen battery has more advantages than fuel vehicle, and its usage habit is similar to that of fuel vehicle. Therefore, the promotion of hydrogen heavy trucks must be accelerated, at least before electric heavy trucks occupy the market, forming a market-oriented competition pattern between them.

The problem is how to speed up the popularization of hydrogen heavy trucks and promote the support of the government and society. Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that leading enterprises should speed up the development of various heavy truck application scenarios, speed up the demonstration and increase the demonstration scale; Accelerate the promotion of infrastructure such as hydrogen refueling stations. In addition, a story, logic and business model of "fuel cell Tesla" subverting the logic of traditional commercial vehicles is needed as a market tipping point to accelerate the promotion of hydrogen-powered vehicles.

Editor: hydrogen, hydrogen, my heart? Proofreading: the rise of wind and hydrogen? Audit: Hydrogen Cloud Fairy

Source: This article was originally created by the hydrogen cloud chain team, please indicate the source.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.