Will US stocks fall below 10000? Will its economy collapse?

The crash in American history was only 1929, which fell by 86% in 34 months.

If the Dow Jones index falls below 10000, and we assume 10000, it will drop by 66. 18% from the highest point of 29568.57, and only the Pearl Harbor incident (World War II) is close to this decline. But after World War II, the United States became the richest and most powerful country in the world.

At present, the most pessimistic expectation is that David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget, warned that the epidemic has exposed the high-risk speculation and instability of the US stock market. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index will fall to 65,438+0,600, which is more than 50% lower than the all-time high set by the index last month, which means it is 34% lower than the current level.

According to this calculation, the Dow Jones index will fall by 14000 points before it stops falling and stabilizes, not less than 10000 points.

Will the American economy collapse?

I think it is too early to talk about the crash, but the crash of the US stock market will really affect the US economy.

This will make the wealth of the American people drop sharply, and the consumption-driven GDP model will come to an abrupt end. But from another perspective, isn't this a good thing?

I even suspect that the collapse of the US stock market is an act of Americans taking advantage of the epidemic to actively pierce the false prosperity.

Moreover, the ten-year bull market of US stocks is the product of corporate repurchase, cheap currency, ultra-low interest rate and debt. It is impossible for the Fed not to think that its practice is to quench thirst by drinking poison.

In other words, the Fed must know that the bubble will burst one day, so there is just an opportunity to drag Europe down. This is killing two birds with one stone!

But even if it collapses, the United States remains the world's number one economic power. At present, the major economies in the market are the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and China. The EU has basically lost its fighting capacity, and Japan and South Korea have also suffered heavy losses. However, there are many opportunities in China.

Everyone is in recession, and the United States is obviously stronger than the European Union, Japan and South Korea even if it collapses because of its technology and heritage.

Therefore, I think it is unlikely that US stocks will fall below 10000, and there is still a certain decline, but history will probably prove that this bubble is probably caused by the United States.

There is a saying that the thin camel is bigger than the horse, the US stock market fell below 1000, and the economy collapsed. The probability of both is very low. Don't underestimate the capabilities of the United States.

It is an indisputable fact that the global epidemic has directly led to the global stock market crash and the global economic downturn. But we must know that the United States is the world's largest economic power, and the stock market is also the world's largest market value. A strong America is not an epidemic that will make America collapse.

Why won't US stocks fall below 10000?

The high point of US stocks before this round of plunge was 29,568 points. If it falls below 1 1,000 points, it is equivalent to a drop of 20,000 points, a drop of more than 60%.

A country's stock market falls by 60%, which is a plunge. The plunge will bring very serious problems to the country. What will happen to the country if enterprises face a wave of bankruptcy, the number of unemployed people increases sharply and everyone loses their income?

There will be an economic crisis. In the event of an economic crisis, I believe every country knows its own advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, the United States will inevitably take various measures to stabilize the stock market and will never let the stock market continue to plummet.

Similarly, the United States has also begun to introduce some policies to fight the epidemic globally, to stabilize the economy and to stabilize the stock market. Under the support of various policies, US stocks will soon stop falling, and the probability of falling below 1000 is very, very low.

Why won't the American economy collapse?

It is inevitable that the American economy will decline due to the epidemic, but the epidemic will not lead to the collapse of the American economy, and the probability of collapse is only 0. 1%!

Because the United States is the largest economy in the world, since the American economy is so strong, it must have its own sources of funds and income, and the United States has the means to get money.

As long as the United States is willing to spend money, it can control the epidemic as quickly as possible. Once the epidemic is controlled, the losses to the American economy will be short-lived, and an epidemic will never bring down the United States.

The most typical example is that the global financial crisis in 2008 failed to collapse the American economy, and the annual flu in the United States failed to collapse the American economy. I believe that this epidemic will not cause the American economy to collapse.

Generally speaking, the US stock market continues to plummet below 654.38+00000 points, or the collapse of the US economy is actually a blow to the whole world, which is the same as the biological chain. The stock markets and economies of other countries will be directly affected by the United States, and the stock markets will continue to plummet and the economy will decline. This is a phenomenon that the whole world does not want to see.

It is still unrealistic to fall to 10000.

US stocks plunged1:1987 On a "Black Monday" in June 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened, and then fell 67%. Because the fuse mechanism was not established at that time (the fuse mechanism was established on this basis the following year), some people proposed to temporarily close the market after the decline, but no one dared to make this decision, because the US stock market was the "weather vane" of the global capital market, and the trading hall was in panic and chaos, but everyone could only watch the stock market fall step by step.

Let's call it Black Tuesday when the US stock market crashed at 2: 1929. This time, unlike 1987, the opening decline was not big, but during the three years from 1929 to July 1937, the largest decline of US stocks reached 90%. In the past three years, people have "talked about it".

(Photo: 1929, 1987 stock market crash)

I don't think it exists. First of all, the main stimulus of the US stock market crash actually comes from the epidemic. In the past two months, the "explosive" panic of the epidemic from 0 to 30,000 in the United States has basically passed, or the people have become accustomed to it, which can be seen from the recent decline in the VIX index. Therefore, the increase in panic caused by the increase in the number of confirmed cases is limited.

Give another example to prove it. Recently, some epidemic prevention personnel in the United States admitted that many people died of "COVID-19" in the "American Influenza" in June+February last year, but they were treated as ordinary influenza. However, in June 5438+February, US stocks did not plummet, and even rose, so people's panic is very important. Assuming that the "pandemic" is actually the "COVID-19" of the United States in June 5438+February, then the US stock market should start to fall from June 5438+February.

Second, there is a bigger "killer" in the US rescue measures! We can see that although the Fed's previous rescue measures are "hard-core", they are basically routine. For example, interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts to zero, quantitative easing, and overnight repurchase are all conventional means. However, the US authorities still have unconventional measures in the pipeline, such as prohibiting listed companies from buying back, issuing US bonds by Congress, and even directly "closing the market" until the epidemic situation improves. Therefore, there are still some measures, and the US authorities will not let the 60% decline repeat itself.

Therefore, based on the above analysis, first, the epidemic panic has reached a high point, and there will be no major fluctuations. Second, the Federal Reserve and Congress will take more unconventional measures to rescue the market according to the stock market trend.

I don't think the US stock market will fall below 654.38+00,000 points. Although the US economy may decline again under the impact of the epidemic, there is little hope of a collapse of the US economy.

The recent decline in the US stock market is very alarming. This is because the structural problems of the American stock market were very serious before, in which the bubble and overvaluation were estimated to be above 30%, so it fell from the historical high of 29,000 points to around 20,000 points. The current level is not too unexpected. If the epidemic affects later, the US stock bubble will accumulate more seriously, and it is likely that this round of decline will make US stocks fall to around 15000.

But now the epidemic has punctured the financial bubble accumulated in the United States for many years in advance, which may make the recession actually faced by the American economy not as serious as expected. Moreover, after experiencing a rapid decline, although the US stock market will remain volatile for some time to come, the motivation for further decline is not very strong. In the future, with the increasing impact of the epidemic on the economy, the fundamentals of US stocks will still face the risk of downward adjustment, but overall, it is unlikely that the bubble will continue to burst, and there is still room for decline in US stocks, but the possibility of returning to 654.38+00,000 points is too small.

Besides, the American economy has actually experienced many economic crises since the Great Depression, but it can always get rid of the threat of economic crisis, which is related to the degree of recognition of the American economy. Although the overall economic strength of the United States is declining, the worm is dead but not stiff, and the decline of the United States is doomed to be a long process. It is unrealistic to expect that one or two recessions will improve the economic growth of the United States.

It will be a trend for the US Dow Jones index to fall below 10000, and the world capital will surely flow to stable China!

By March 23rd, Dow Jones had fallen by more than 1 1 0000 points, a decrease of nearly 38%, and it was still more than 8,000 points away from 1 0000 points, which means that it broke through 10000 points by 44%. From more than 29,000 points to 10000 points, the overall decline will be 68%, which has also happened in the history of US stocks. Judging from the current situation and development trend, it is still possible to fall below 10,000 points, mainly for the following reasons:

1. US stocks rose from more than 6,400 points in 2009 to a peak of more than 29,000 points, an increase of more than four times. The bubble is huge and plummets at any time. The epidemic only accelerated or aggravated the collapse of US stocks.

Second, although the U.S. stock market has been in a bull market for ten years, since the financial crisis in 2008, the shadow of the world economic recession has been lingering, with insufficient innovation power and development potential. The US stock market has been bullish for ten years, mainly because of Tesla and Apple. The former has increased by 40 times and the latter by 20 times. But now the share prices of Tesla and Apple are still halfway up the mountain, and there is huge room for callback.

Third, with the rise of emerging markets, the hegemony of the United States is challenged, its share in the world economy is declining year by year, its leadership position is shaken, and the world police are unable to do so. As a result, Trump proposed the policy of "giving priority to the United States" and retired from the group around the world. In the short term, it is beneficial to the United States, making the American stock market rise by 10 thousand points, but in the long run, it is contrary to the law of human historical development and a huge retrogression. The collapse of the US stock market has also become inevitable.

4. new york is a world financial center. A few years ago, many excellent companies in the world went public, such as Alibaba and JD.COM. However, the rise of financial markets in various places and the strict regulatory conditions in the United States have made many companies no longer choose the United States, leading to a gradual decline in US stocks.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) With the global spread of the epidemic, countries have taken measures to close roads, villages, cities and even countries, and many economic activities are in a state of stop or semi-stop. The United States is based on the service industry, which accounts for 70% of the total American economy, and the mobility of people is the basis of the service industry. Taking measures to close the city will be a fatal blow to the United States, which is also the reason why the US government is unwilling to close the city. However, all countries in the world have stopped commercial activities, and the epidemic in the United States is expanding rapidly. If the epidemic will recur as Zhang Wenhong said, then the US stock market will see below 10000.

To sum up, Dow Jones fell below 10,000 points, just around the corner!

Thank you for inviting me!

Affected by the coronavirus, the US stock market plummeted and melted. At present, it has fallen by nearly10,000 points, and its market value has shrunk by nearly one third. Its plunge has directly affected the global stock market, foreign exchange market and commodity slump! Even China, which controlled the epidemic, was not spared! Its plunge has seriously affected the development of the global economy, and the theory of financial crisis has resurfaced. According to my own judgment, the US stock market will not fall below 10000, and the economy will not collapse. The following is my analysis:

In the bull markets of 1 and 10 in the United States, Dow Jones' bull-bear supreme and golden line is at 17000! The Trump administration will not sit still, and will definitely come up with the killer of economic stimulus to stop the stock index from going down!

2. If the Dow Jones index falls by 17000 points, value investment will be highlighted, which will attract a large number of rational investors to open positions, thus preventing the stock market from going down.

3. Coronavirus has entered the outbreak period in the United States. Under the pressure of public opinion, the US government will definitely try to stop the spread of the epidemic, and will not rule out bowing its head to China to admit its mistakes and seeking help! Once the epidemic is under control, global stock markets will start a decent rebound.

4. The global stock market has been washed, and the resilience of the Chinese and Japanese stock markets is obvious, and it is at the bottom, and the downward plunge space is blocked! Indirectly eased the downward trend of US stocks.

The global stock market crash is only affected by the epidemic, and it is a natural disaster rather than a man-made disaster. The economic fundamentals of the United States have not fundamentally changed. So the theory of American economic collapse is untenable!

Welcome everyone to express their opinions in the comment area and discuss the stock market life together!

The American stock market experienced a bull market of 1 1 year. However, in the past month or so, the US stock market has experienced violent shocks and falls, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced four blows in one month. You know, the US stock market has experienced five blows in a month, and the Dow Jones index has fallen by nearly 30%, which indicates that the US stock market has entered a bear market. Then the American stock market will fall below 1 100 million points, and the economy will collapse.

First of all, we must find out the real reason for the decline of US stocks. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, some European and American countries have announced the closure of cities, the suspension of factories, the suspension of schools and the closure of physical stores, which has had a great impact on normal economic activities, leading to the decline in the performance of listed companies and the pressure on the stock index. In addition, the US stock index is at an all-time high, investors are scrambling to escape from the stock market, and the stock indexes are blown off one after another, but the epidemic situation is controllable. The United States has also taken some coercive measures, including imposing a travel ban on Europe, delaying the tax payment period, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, and providing additional liquidity to the market. I believe that as long as the United States takes effective measures, it will definitely control the development of the epidemic. Moreover, the Federal Reserve announced a series of new rescue plans, announcing that it will buy $75 billion of treasury bonds and $50 billion of institutional mortgage-backed securities every day this week to expand the scale of liquidity facilities in the money market. With the end of the epidemic and the implementation of the US rescue plan, the US stock market will be greatly improved.

The United States is a highly developed capitalist superpower, leading the world in politics, economy, military affairs, culture, innovation and agriculture. As a super capitalist country with advanced military science and technology, its higher education and scientific research technology level are also the highest in the world, and its investment in scientific research funds, research universities and enterprises, and rich scientific research achievements are world models. Although facing various problems at home and abroad, the United States, as the locomotive of the world economy, will not collapse at least in the next 30 years, because it has a relatively sound legal system, a healthy living environment and top-notch educational resources.

I don't know,

Affected by the epidemic, US stocks fell sharply. However, after a few days of decline, the risks have been fully released and investment opportunities have gradually emerged. At present, it is bottoming out, and the American panic index is close to the waist. This shows that market sentiment has gradually stabilized, and US stocks will not fall sharply again.

The stock market is a barometer of the national economy, and the stability of US stocks means that the US economy has also experienced panic. Although the inflection point of the epidemic has not yet arrived, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is mainly psychological panic. The epidemic itself is not terrible, but it is actually equivalent to a flu. The American economy was completely unaffected, and only a few hundred people died of the epidemic. Even if the number of infected people increases, the death toll is not an order of magnitude with the flu, which means that the damage caused by the epidemic to the economy is panic.

The United States has the largest economy in the world, developed science and technology, stable society and a solid foundation for dealing with the epidemic. It is said that the epidemic caused the American economy to collapse like a joke, and even the fascist countries and the Soviet empire could not cause the American economy to collapse. How much energy can a small virus have? The American economy can only be hit hard if it has its own problems. This is only a heavy blow, not a collapse, so the collapse theory will only interfere with judgment and miss the investment opportunity.

Recently, US stocks have plummeted continuously, so will US stocks fall below 10000 points? If so, will the American economy collapse? The subject is very worried about America. Although the US stock market has fallen by 38% since this year's high point, and the epidemic situation in the United States has become more and more serious, the author still believes that the possibility of the US stock market falling below 10000 is extremely low, and the possibility of its economic collapse is even lower.

The US stock market has been blown up four times this month, with a cumulative decline of more than 38% since its peak in February this year. This decline is also the biggest decline since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, and the time is only one and a half months. The same decline took 1 year in 2008.

In 2008, the Dow fell by 55%, from 14279.9 to 6440, from 2007 10 to March 2009, lasting 17 months. In terms of strength, this time is much bigger than in 2008.

The reason is also very simple, because the spread speed and outbreak speed of the epidemic are really too fast. On February 20th, it began to spread slowly around the world. At first, it was Singapore and Japan, but these two countries took timely and effective measures to control it. Then it broke out in South Korea and Iran. Although South Korea accumulated nearly 654.38+million cases, which basically controlled the spread, it did not expect to break out in Europe, and Italy became the hardest hit. Most importantly, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States now exceeds 30,000, and the death toll exceeds 400, and all this has stagnated since March 10.

As of 23: 00 on March 22nd, more than 50 countries around the world have declared a state of emergency, and some countries have declared a state of war or wartime control.

This epidemic is fierce, but the stock market has already responded. If it falls below 10000 in the future, it will fall by 45% on the basis of today, which is equivalent to walking for more than a month before. How many "shocking" things do you need to complete this?

Moreover, at present, the United States has taken active countermeasures. The president of the United States has declared the beginning of wartime rights. One-third of the people have received the news that they want to isolate their homes and prevent COVID-19 from being infected. Many American states have closed their cities.

In addition, the Federal Reserve has implemented an infinite quantitative easing model. This week, 75 billion US dollars of government bonds and 50 billion US dollars of institutional mortgage-backed securities will be purchased every day, and the daily and regular repo rate will be reset to 0%, which means that 654.38+025 billion US dollars of bonds will be purchased every day, and 654.38+025 billion US dollars will be invested every day. There is no upper limit, as long as the stock market continues to fall, this operation will not stop!

The U.S. stock market crash is likely to be a financial crisis. In fact, the root cause is the spread of the epidemic in Europe and the rapid spread in the United States. The measures taken by the United States before were not active enough, which led to the rapid spread of the epidemic to the United States. The president of the United States made a mistake in epidemic prevention and was careless at first!

Therefore, this led to a sharp drop in the stock market, which in turn triggered a sharp drop in the international crude oil price, and eventually sold assets on a large scale, forming a liquidity trap, and cutting interest rates and printing money did not work!

In the final analysis, the epidemic is the key, and now the United States needs to do two things. On the one hand, we can continue to release liquidity in monetary policy, prevent the stock market from falling further and regain the confidence of investors. Only in this way can we avoid the liquidity trap. Second, strict measures are implemented in the fight against the epidemic, which can detect, diagnose, isolate and treat in all directions. Only when the fight against the epidemic is effective can we have confidence in the first one.

Now America is doing these two things. Unlimited easing is to ensure liquidity, change the previous "negative" measures and implement severe measures in the fight against the epidemic.

Although the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States has risen sharply recently, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases has reached 39 183, this is not bad news, because the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States in the early stage is small, but the mortality rate is as high as 2%. According to the medical resources in the United States, there will not be two or three thousand runs, so the most possible explanation is that a large number of infected people have not been found and diagnosed, which is actually the most serious situation.

In recent days, the scope of detection has greatly increased, the number of confirmed cases has been increasing, and the mortality rate has been decreasing. Now it has been as low as 1.2%. If the mortality rate can return to less than 1%, it means that this is normal, and the mortality rates in Korea and Germany are comparable. If the mortality rate is lower than 1%, it means that the detection in the United States is perfect and all infected people can be treated and isolated.

Recently, many institutions are also predicting the American economy, basically believing that the United States will enter recession, and even boldly saying that the American economy will shrink by 50%. This statement is very scary. If the United States has not taken active measures to fight the epidemic, then it is possible, because the GDP of the United States is mainly in the service industry, but now that the United States has taken such severe measures, the economic losses should still be under control.

The American economy is not as fragile as imagined. The best result is that the United States enters a recession and the American stock market enters a bear market.

The worst result is that the United States enters the financial crisis, the bear market lasts longer and the space is longer, and the economy shows negative growth!

However, no matter which result, it will not turn into a crash! !

Remember, a thin camel is bigger than a horse! !

The American market has existed for hundreds of years and has long had the ability and tools to deal with all risks.

We always overestimate the short-term impact and underestimate the power of long-term growth and time.

Today, the United States has indeed encountered once-in-a-century risks and crises.

There are great challenges in economy, stock market and epidemic situation, but we still believe that the number one throne in the world in the United States did not fall from the sky, but was won by ourselves.

Therefore, they are fully capable of preventing the crisis from worsening, and they have solved the crisis more than once in hundreds of years of history.

Will US stocks fall below 10000?

Take Dow Jones as an example, I think the probability is very low! At present, Dow Jones has reached the support position near 19000. In this way, there is limited room for decline, and the down limit stops at 16000~ 18000.