New German Chancellor Scholz’s attitude towards China (Scholz’s political views)

A few days ago, the German political arena is about to undergo major changes. German Chancellor Merkel, who has been in office for 16 years, is about to step down, and a new German Prime Minister is about to be elected. Judging from preliminary statistics released by the German Federal Election Commission, the Social Democratic Party of Germany won 25.7% of the vote, ahead of Merkel's Alliance Party, which won 24.2%. Scholz, the Social Democratic Party's chancellor candidate, announced that he has been authorized to form a new coalition government with the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party.

Scholz is now the quasi-prime minister of Germany, and according to media reports, Scholz has clearly opposed decoupling from China. This is undoubtedly good news for Sino-German relations. At a regular press conference on September 27, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying spoke highly of Merkel when answering reporters' questions.

Hua Chunying said that Merkel attaches great importance to Sino-German relations. During her term of office, she visited China 12 times and chaired 6 rounds of Sino-German government consultations, which deepened the cooperative relationship between China and Germany and provided a solid foundation for the cooperation between China and Germany. It has brought huge benefits to the people of China and Germany. Hua Chunying then made some demands for Merkel's successor, saying that China expects the new German government to continue its pragmatic and steady policy towards China and adhere to the main tone of bilateral cooperation between the two countries.

It can be said that Hua Chunying did not hesitate to praise Merkel when she spoke. This is extremely unusual in the current context where Western countries follow the United States and oppose China. However, Merkel’s contribution to Sino-German relations is obvious and deserves this praise. The words of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs are not only addressed to Merkel, but also to her successor.

China’s expectations are related to people’s general concerns before the German election. There is a problem in the current German political arena, that is, even if Merkel is about to leave office, Merkel is still the most popular politician in Germany, but the Alliance Party to which Merkel belongs has failed to gain an upper hand in the political competition. This means that the new German Chancellor is likely not to come from Merkel’s party, and Merkel’s original diplomatic line is likely to be changed.

If we only analyze where Germany will go based on the remarks of the candidates for chancellor of each political party in Germany, it will inevitably lead to a foggy view and unclear understanding of the situation. Due to various reasons such as history and reality, Germany is not only an economic power with huge influence in Europe, but also a weak military country that is politically and militarily controlled by the United States. It is also a major trade and export country that is extremely dependent on the Chinese market.

It can be said that Germany’s future direction is pulled by four forces. The first force comes from within Germany and the EU. As the most economically powerful country in the EU, Germany has always had a strong desire to dominate the EU to achieve greater ambitions. Through the EU, Germany's capabilities will be amplified and it will have a greater voice in the world. But this power is not welcomed by the United States. The United States has been undermining German ideas by installing agents within the European Parliament, an organization affiliated with the European Union.

The second force comes from Russia. Today's Russia seems to be economically weak, so that its influence on Europe, especially Germany, has been greatly underestimated. But in fact, Germany and Russia have loved and killed each other throughout history, and they have always had an extremely complex and difficult-to-break-up relationship with each other.

In reality, the trade volume between Germany and Russia is huge, and the exchanges between German Chancellor Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin are very close, far exceeding that of other European countries. In the past two years, taking advantage of the chaos in the U.S. political arena, Germany and Russia have joined forces to accelerate the completion of the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project between the two countries.

The third force comes from the United States. The United States has many military bases in Germany and is stationed with the largest number of troops among European countries. Germany's diplomacy and finance are also deeply influenced by the United States. Therefore, although Germany behaves very independently everywhere, it does not dare to disobey the United States at critical moments. However, now the influence of the United States is rapidly declining, and Germany's independence is increasing.

The fourth force comes from China. Germany entered the Chinese market very early and is now the European country most economically dependent on the Chinese market. The automobile industry, which is the foundation of Germany's industry, has a high proportion of its three major automobile companies' profits coming from the Chinese market. This kind of economic dependence has allowed China-Germany relations to withstand repeated shocks in the past, and it also allowed Germany to overcome all objections last year and persuade all parties to complete negotiations on the China-EU Trade Agreement with China.

No matter which prime minister candidate comes to power, no matter what political philosophy he holds, his final policy direction will still be determined by these four forces.

At present, it seems that among these four forces, the ones that have changed the most are the United States and Russia. After U.S. President Biden visited Europe in June this year, the United States and Europe were actually in a state of apparent incompatibility, and a rift developed in the relationship between the two parties.

In the middle of this month, the United States, Britain, and Australia formed the "AUKUS" alliance and tore up France's submarine order. Since then, the gap between the United States and the European Union has widened. It is no longer possible for the European Union to support the United States everywhere as it did in the past. Under this circumstance, the influence of the United States on the European Union and Germany has been greatly weakened. At the same time, due to the completion of the "Beixi 2" project, the relationship between Russia, Germany and even the EU will be greatly strengthened in the future.

As the influence of Russia and the United States increases and decreases, Germany's future policy will alienate the United States and favor Russia, and this change will also affect China. Therefore, China can remain cautiously optimistic about Sino-German relations for the time being. Of course, due to the influence of many forces, even if Germany's policy changes in the future, it is unlikely to usher in a rapid change, and the United States is not willing to let Germany go just like this, which requires us to remain vigilant towards this Western country.