inflation

What is inflation? What else is the economic crisis?

Look at this. It's classic. Dude, it's not easy to find this.

1 10 minutes to let you know the economic situation in China (reproduced)

Explain the economic truth with the simplest truth. There won't be any so-called profound academic theories that academic prostitutes often use to deceive people. The facts are innocent. There is only one truth. Let's keep our eyes open and see what happened today. This paper expounds the truth of China economy from the following aspects.

1. What is economic development?

Simply put, economic development means having money, but where does the money come from? Money can only be printed. So what keeps the printing press running?

Suppose there are 1000 people on an island, isolated from the world, and people exchange things for a living, but sometimes what you exchange in your hand is not necessarily what the other person wants. What should you do? So people use gold and silver, which everyone likes, as an exchange, which is convenient. But gold and silver are worn out and inconvenient to carry. When communication activities are frequent, I find this thing too complicated, which limits communication activities. So in order to solve this problem, a way was thought out, that is, the manager of the island issued a symbol instead of gold and silver, and paper money appeared.

At first, this currency could be converted into gold and silver at any time. Everyone is at ease, because money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small. When people's communication activities become more and more frequent and there is not enough money, they can only suspend communication. The consequence of suspending the exchange is that no one will produce what others want, because although others have used it, they can't exchange it. In the current words, the economic development is slow.

So everyone thought of a way to set up a bank to be owned by everyone. The bank will issue money, and the printed money will be lent to the person who wants to use the money, and then this person will return it to the bank when he has money. So the bank appeared.

The emergence of banks can ensure that the exchange activities can be carried out more continuously. Everyone is desperately producing, and there are more and more things on the island. Banks keep printing money according to the production quantity of products to ensure that the exchange can be carried out more deeply.

Later, people's communication activities became more and more frequent, and there were too few banks, so many banks appeared. There must be a bank manager, so a bank was appointed to manage other banks. Paper money can only be printed by this bank and then lent to people who use money through other banks, so the central bank appeared.

2. What is foreign trade?

One day, the people on the island invented the boat, so they rowed around and found another island with people and money, as active as their own island. However, my own island produces a lot of things, but that island produces very little. 1 Yuan money can buy 1 Jin of rice on my own island, but on that island 1 Yuan money can only buy half a catty of rice, so when money from other islands comes to this island to buy things, it can only be exchanged with 2 yuan money 1 Yuan. So the exchange rate appeared. After calculating the exchange rate, they began to buy and sell things on the other island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade has enriched people's life and production needs, and the exchange activities have reached an unprecedented climax.

3. What is inflation?

Because there are too many products produced on the island, it is impossible to accurately estimate how much money should be sent. If you buy too many products, the price of the products will start to increase, and if you buy too few products, the price will start to decrease. In order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires banks to put some money in the central bank to adjust product prices, and put more and less according to the price situation. This is the deposit reserve ratio.

However, some smart people began to get their hands on the money. He found a stone at the seaside, said it was worth 6.5438+0 million yuan, and sold it to a person. This person thinks that the total money of the whole island does not add up to 6.5438+0 million. What should I do? So he borrowed it from the bank, and the bank didn't have that much money, so he opened the printing machine and printed the 654.38+00,000.

Then this person started to sell this stone, and 1 ten thousand yuan was sold to a second person. Because the first stone seller spent his money, there was more money on the island, so this10 million can be raised and more products can be bought. However, the stone has turned 2 million, and the bank can only print 6.5438+0 million more banknotes, so the banknotes are printed more and more. However, when the stones were constantly moved, people didn't feel that there was more money on the island, and the price of the products was still the same. However, when this stone does not circulate or circulates slowly, people think that there is more money, but if the person holding the stone throws it into the sea, it is equivalent to an extra N 100 on the island out of thin air.

What shall we do? What the central bank fears most is that this stone is gone. Without it, the price of products on the island will soar and inflation will occur. Then people with stones kidnapped the island's economy.

4. Can house prices kidnap China's economy?

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Ten minutes to let you know the economic situation in China (reproduced)

China's real estate has caused the Central Bank of China to issue too much RMB. If the house price drops, it is equivalent to throwing that stone into the sea. Printing so much money will make the price of China products soar and cause serious inflation.

House prices seem to have nothing to do with stones, but their attributes are the same, that is, the serious deviation between price and value. In fact, it was not the commercial banks in China that collapsed the real estate, but the whole economic system in China. Why does the government delay in lowering housing prices? Not that it can't be healthy. If it really wants to lower the house price, it only needs a decree, and the real estate price will collapse overnight. But who will bear the consequences and who will be responsible for the serious inflation?

It is an indisputable objective fact that the real estate industry kidnapped China's economy, and no one can change it.

No matter who is the prime minister, no matter whether he is clean or corrupt, he wants social harmony, but this is a thorny issue.

5. Is there a relationship between house price and inflation?

But the more difficult problem is not just here. If we lower the house price, we will face the immediate inflation, but there is no need to lower the house price, then we will face more serious inflation. Where are you going?

Therefore, the most reliable way is to stabilize housing prices, and then reduce the amount of money when social products increase, plus other policies such as raising interest rates, increasing the reserve ratio of commercial banks, reducing the scale of credit and other auxiliary means, so as to make China's economy soft landing. This is the best way, and all the decrees we have seen are the same logic. If you don't believe me, you can look at a series of measures introduced by the government in recent years to regulate the real estate industry.

But why are house prices unstable and even crazier? Is it a game between developers and the government? Tell you, no one in China can compare with the party, and several developers with bigger stomachs don't have the strength. In fact, another black hand behind the scenes is playing a game with the China government. This black hand is the black hand that foreign capital and imperialism, represented by the United States, robbed the people of China of their blood and sweat.

6. What is the driving force behind high housing prices?

There are many driving forces for housing prices to rise, and those who are beneficial to housing prices are one of them. For example, local governments for GDP and personal interests, developers for making money, real estate speculators, and even the so-called "house slaves" who buy houses are all drivers of rising house prices, but the biggest drivers are not these, but foreign capital, and the major consortia in the United States seize excess profits.

As businessmen, it is not unnatural for developers to earn high profits, but there are businessmen in all walks of life. Do they want to make money? Unless it is a myth. The same is true for developers in the real estate industry, who do not want to earn as much as they want. According to the law of value, when the price of goods deviates from the value seriously, there will be a force tending to return to the normal price to curb the price increase. However, in China's real estate industry, this law seems to be invalid. An important reason is that a reference range is neglected. If China's economy itself is really illegal, the current situation is that there is a force to maintain the price of the real estate industry, that is, to support the market. So who is supporting the market?

Those who can get out of control in the real estate industry and make huge profits are the people who support the market.

Before discussing this issue, let's look at China's foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have rapidly exceeded one trillion from 1 and 200 billion, and are still growing rapidly. Did the people of China work hard to earn it? This does not need to be proved. Just look at China's GDP growth. The growth rate of foreign exchange reserves is obviously greater than that of GDP. Obviously, it's not earned, so except for a part, it's called

The influx of "international hot money" has only one purpose, that is, to obtain high returns.

After international hot money enters the China market, it must first be converted into RMB, so how can there be so many RMB at once? There is only one way to make the printing press work day and night, and then use the money to support the real estate market, which is already a hot potato, and that is to invest desperately in the real estate industry. When the real estate price fluctuates downward because it deviates from the value, it will be raised by supporting the market and other means, giving people the appearance that the real estate price has never deviated from the value. As a result, house prices are rising higher and higher.

As for developers, when the house is to be sold, someone will pay a high price. How do they reduce the price? Without this part of the funds in operation, let alone the developer alliance, that is, there is only one developer in the country, and the price will come down, and no one will buy it. Is it necessary to wait for the house to get moldy?

So what do foreign investors do with so many high-priced properties? Aren't you afraid of hitting it in your hand?

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30 minutes to let you know the economic situation in China (reproduced)

Not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a big head at the bottom. who is it? Is the commercial bank in China, due to the hot real estate market, first-class liquidity, in recent years, did not see any signs of shrinking, put loans on profits, why not lend? There is no reason not to lend.

Coupled with the domestic people's feelings of buying houses, it is easy for foreign investors to transfer high-priced houses to domestic banks and consumers, and even farmers who speculate in real estate can get a slice of it. Will professional foreign investors lose money?

So what will happen if house prices continue to rise? Please see the next section: "7. House prices have been rising, developers will laugh or cry? " When do you laugh? Under what circumstances will you cry? " *

7. Will developers laugh or cry when house prices continue to rise? When do you laugh? Under what circumstances will you cry?

Under the control of dozens of gold medals won intensively by the China municipal government in recent years, house prices are still running like runaway wild horses. At present, no matter when the upward trend can be stopped, after all, the house price is still rising, so let's take a look at what the rising house price will bring.

First of all, due to the rise of GDP, in order to maintain the "continuation of product exchange" mentioned above, the China government has to continuously put in RMB, that is, start the printing press. As long as the real estate stone is not put into the sea and has certain liquidity, then there will be no inflation.

Secondly, developers will also get huge profits in this process.

Once again: what can be seen is that the real estate speculators will make money, and the so-called "house slaves" who buy houses will increase in value.

Make money! But who lost in the process? where is the money to come from? If you have experience in stock trading, you will know that if you invest in a commodity whose price and value deviate from each other, the money you earn is the money that others lose. Then if it is applied to real estate, it is the person who buys a house to live in. Now it seems to have increased in value. It's the moon in the mirror, the flower in the water. If you don't realize it, it's not yours. Then there is the case that the price completely returns to the real value, and investors who are locked in high-priced houses sometimes can't even see the real value. Another is the developer!

Why do developers also lose money? Everyone knows that the essence of businessmen is to make money, not to make profits. If a businessman speculates once and never does this business, he makes money, but he is not a businessman. This kind of business behavior is meaningless. Because of the nature of businessmen, the money earned will continue to expand reproduction and increase investment in areas that can make money. This truth can be seen from life. The business is getting bigger and bigger, and there are always people shouting that there is no money, because more liquidity is needed to maintain the need of expanding reproduction.

So once the house price returns to its true value, a large number of developers will close down. This is independent of anyone's will and any behavior. If a developer escapes from the real estate stage now, the last loser will be the one who runs slowly. If they don't run, it's like passing a parcel, and the receiver gets the baton at last. There is a saying: "it will be returned sooner or later." Maybe it's just a different way to see who is lucky.

But now there is no sign of any developer losing money. Some developers have been making money, and ordinary people have no time to send money. Just because house prices are still rising, real estate is still flowing.

A huge problem has come. When will this rise in housing prices end? Please see the next section: "8. How did the consortium sitting in the Wall Street office suck the blood and sweat of a farmer in the mountainous area of China? "

8. How did the consortium sitting in the Wall Street office drain the blood and sweat of a farmer in the mountainous area of China?

Chairman Mao once said: "Imperialism is not sleeping, but is stirring every day in an attempt to achieve their evil goals. It is true that their arrogance is not as arrogant as before, but they are indeed active. " Does the end of the cold war represent the realization of human peace? Can "everyone is equal before God" cover up the blood-sucking nature of imperialism? The idea that everyone is equal is right, but this is just a trick used by imperialism to deceive people. Saying and doing are always two different things.

International consortia poured into China through international hot money, which increased the circulation of RMB. Then, through real estate speculation, the domestic price level in China was raised infinitely, and the growth of GDP forced the circulation of RMB to increase again. The purpose of the international consortium is to make China's economy hot and everyone in China crazy.

We don't care about this process for the time being. Let's look to the future and see what the result of this process is. In other words, what is the purpose of the consortium?

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40 minutes to let you know the economic situation in China (reproduced)

Obviously, the last thing China people want to see is the result that the consortia are most willing to see. Let's make a hypothesis. For example, after the international hot money staged the final madness in China real estate investment, the real estate was successfully untied and fully realized. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar reaches the highest expectation at this time, the exchange rate is the multiple that hot money needs to be multiplied when fleeing. You can imagine what will happen. All the hot money will be converted into US dollars and flee overnight. The consortium will make a lot of money. Money is just money in the China market, and a large amount of RMB that can cover the sky will become a nightmare for the people of China.

This is the last thing that China people want to see, and it is also the result that the consortium wants to see most. Recently, the United States has been constantly forcing the RMB to appreciate through political and trade means, while China's administration has been slow to appreciate or appreciate on a small scale, which is far from the expectation of the US government. This is a game between China and the United States at the exit. The wolf ambition of the United States to force the RMB to appreciate is obvious!

By the way, if this expectation of appreciation really comes true, the China property market will repeat the history of the Japanese crash in the 1990s. Only then will China's economy, like the Japanese, enter a sustained downturn.

Will the government stand idly by on this matter of national survival? Even to say the least, a completely irresponsible government will encounter this situation, because this kind of capital operation has also greatly violated the interests of the government, and it will fight back desperately.

So, in what way will the China government solve this "economic crisis"? Please see the next section: "Possible Middle Route in the Game between Housing Price and Inflation".

9. The middle route that may be chosen in this game between housing prices and inflation.

I have always believed that extremes meet, and the golden mean is the killer weapon that our ancestors left to future generations to solve difficult problems!

Since China real estate "kidnapped" China economy, let's start with "kidnapping". What is "kidnapping"? It should be the relatively weak party, holding the "key" of the relatively strong party, so that even if the relatively strong party has the ability to deal with the weak party, it is powerless because of complications.

Let's look at the lineup of both sides of the kidnapping and their chips. The main body of the real estate industry is the developer, so the developer is one side. The key to kidnapping is China's economy. Who is the key to China's economy? The key lies in the people of China. At present, only the China government can represent the people of China. The Government of China is on one side. What about foreign investment? It's a fan. It's on the developer's side. On the one hand, the China municipal government has public power, which can exert pressure on the developer camp through taxation, finance, economic policies and administrative means. The developer camp kidnapped China's economy through a steady stream of reserve funds, and constantly raised the ransom.

The problem is already here. What should we do? Rush up and shoot to death. The gangster must tear up the ticket, which is too extreme and not feasible. Therefore, it is not feasible to prescribe drugs to the government, as long as such an idea of lowering housing prices is realized, just like this lens. We imagine how to rescue the kidnapping, first of all, we must stabilize each other's emotions and approach step by step, but this will cause the gangster's hostility, but it will not lead him to kill the ticket. Then we will further stabilize our emotions and approach again, and then wait until the conditions are ripe, then slowly and steadily, that is, to ensure the safety of the hostage and ensure that the gangster can win it in one fell swoop. This is the real rescue.

Therefore, the golden mean is the killer to solve difficult problems. Extreme, blind and aggressive are unacceptable.

In view of how to solve the kidnapping problem in China real estate market, it is the right way to exert reaction step by step around the key parts of the problem and then succeed in one fell swoop.

The first key part is the exchange rate. China government will strictly close the exchange rate. What we can expect is that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will never appreciate too fast, but it will appreciate slightly, in order to stabilize each other's mood. If it doesn't go up at all, the other party will be desperate. If it rises too fast, it will dig its own grave. Then, why is China's exchange rate always rising, and there is still half of her face hidden behind her guitar? See how appropriate the attitude of the American government is towards a kidnapper. I want a bottle of juice, why bring half a bottle? But I can't say anything. After all, you can quench your thirst temporarily.

The second key is to limit the liquidity of assets. Since real estate can kidnap China's economy, it shows that it plays an important role. Limiting the liquidity of real estate can limit the liquidity of assets. Note that there are two concepts here, "asset liquidity" and "real estate liquidity". The two are completely different, but closely related. If the liquidity of real estate is weakened and the liquidity of assets is weakened, then the RMB that needs printing will be reduced. Just like that stone, it will swell immediately if it doesn't circulate, and it will be fine if it doesn't raise prices, but no, foreign capital won't agree. Since prices are rising, we can only restrict the circulation of real estate step by step. As long as the liquidity of real estate is less, inflation will show a little, and then we can adjust it by raising the reserve ratio and interest rate, and use the willow cotton palm to resolve Tai Sen's heavy punch and make it strong and invisible. This is the strategy of the China administration (which seems to be what China people are best at). We can see relevant news from the official media that the signing rate of the property market is declining, that is, the liquidity is declining, and then the price starts to rise, such as pork and other non-staple foods, but the central bank immediately raised the reserve ratio and raised interest rates to stabilize prices. I wonder if readers have seen some clues. It can be expected that before the crisis is completely solved, interest rates and reserve ratio will continue to be raised, and the liquidity of real estate will become weaker and weaker. Whether this prediction is accurate or not can be verified in future central bank policies. When the inflation expectation caused by overheating is completely eliminated, it is the time when the real estate price returns to its true value.

Whether you watch it or not, this is the last madness. Let's analyze it from two aspects:

First, if this game ends with the victory of foreign investment, China's economy will enter the abyss of continuous decline in the 1990s. Due to the withdrawal of foreign capital, the pillar on which the housing market depends will collapse and house prices will plummet. However, both developers and ordinary people will be affected by the economic downturn, and their currencies will depreciate rapidly. Even if the house price falls, they may not be able to afford it. This is unacceptable to the government of China and the people of China, and it is also unacceptable.

Second, if foreign investment ends in failure, that is, to control exports at the exchange rate, let house prices return to their true values, and set foreign investment in China, this is the prerequisite for success. Then the imperialist bloodthirsty people headed by American consortia will retaliate crazily and put pressure on China in investment and export. Today, the appreciation of RMB did not meet the expectations of the United States, which led to the suppression of China's exports to the United States, and thus triggered numerous trade frictions. We know that the troika of economic development is investment, export and consumption. Revenge in investment and export will affect China's economic development, but I believe it will not affect our development speed. Don't forget that there is another carriage that is "consumption". If you are a patriot after the house price falls, please protect your wallet now. Don't be shy then and buy a house decisively. China's economy will suddenly emerge in the field of consumption and continue to monopolize.

Therefore, we should trust our government and cooperate with it. The government and the people stand together on issues that affect the overall situation. The government is a boat on the water, and the people are water. How can we ship without water? hlm