China automobile market in 2020 is like Versailles literature.

It seems a little early to draw a conclusion for the domestic auto market in 2020, but this year's situation is special and the overall trend is clear. In fact, after the initial negative growth of 20 18 and the expansion of 20 19, everyone has long been pessimistic about the automobile market in 2020. Coupled with the epidemic at the beginning of the year, most domestic car companies were forced to stop production, which brought many uncertainties to this year's auto market.

Fortunately, the timely control of the epidemic, the country's strong control measures, the reappearance of "Golden September and Silver 10" and the monthly sales reported one after another finally let everyone breathe a sigh of relief and let the global auto market leader show it inadvertently, which is simply the best interpretation of Versailles literature.

New forces: 20 19 on life and death, 2020 on market value.

In just a few years, from the initial emergence of more than 100 new car-making forces, it is still in operation, and only 9 companies can sell hundreds of cars every month. The names of Lindsay, Bojun and Baten have been slowly erased from everyone's memory. How high the capital flies when it flows in, how painful it is now.

Enter three keywords "20 19, Wei lai, Li Bin" into the search engine, and the first five results will inevitably be the article titled "20 19 worst man". Indeed, experienced? After the turmoil of spontaneous combustion recall, layoffs and department reduction, many people read Wei Lai's jokes.

Who would have thought that those who bravely bargain-hunting when Weilai's share price fell to less than $2 now have more than 50 times the income. Weilai, which faced the risk of delisting a year ago, has now surpassed GM in market value, followed by Daimler Group. For the time being, no matter how big the bubble is, at least Weilai's heel has been firmly established.

If I had to find a turning point for Wei Lai, I thought of 20 19? NIO？ The first day. Because on the stage of Shenzhen Bay Sports Center, Wei Lai showed us EC6, the new ES8, 100? KWh liquid-cooled constant temperature battery pack. It can be seen that speaking with real product power is more useful than those gorgeous PPT.

The same is true for Li and Li. He and Li Xiang successively rang the bell of IPO of NYSE. According to the financial report, Xpeng Automobile achieved positive gross profit margin for the first time in the third quarter of 2020, and P7 also became the fastest delivery model of 10,000 vehicles. Li ONE has achieved positive gross profit margin for two consecutive quarters. As of June 1 1, Li ONE has delivered a total of 26,498 vehicles.

When these data are put on the table, it means that it is only a matter of time before the new car-making forces get through the difficult initial stage of selling a car and losing a car. Next, what they have to face is no longer mass production delivery, but how to expand the product lineup and completely improve the reliability and security of product software and hardware.

In addition to the three new forces at the head, don't forget that Weimar and Nezha of the second echelon have won 654.38+0 billion yuan led by SAIC and Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and 2 billion yuan led by Huading Capital respectively, and are running towards the goal of IPO at full speed. The retail operation next door is also in full swing to discuss the B round of financing, which is said to reach 3 billion. And the rising star Gao He HiPhi also showed HiPhi at the Beijing Auto Show? On x-day, I won a cheer.

20 19 and the new forces that can experience reshuffle in 2020 are more or less unique. In the long run, the challenges faced by the new forces of making cars are still very arduous. After all, traditional car companies have not made full efforts in the field of new energy, and whether the first-Mover advantage of new forces can be sustained will be seen in two or three years.

Luxury brand: I don't care who I compete with.

What many people didn't expect was that the luxury car market recovered the fastest after the epidemic and had the highest annual growth rate. According to the statistics of 1- 10 this year, the share of luxury brands has expanded to the historical high of 13.6%. According to the cumulative sales in the first three quarters, Mercedes-Benz continued to lead luxury brands with 569,700 vehicles, followed by BMW and Audi with 55.97, 565, 438+0.265 and 438+0.000 vehicles respectively.

In my opinion, behind the sudden emergence of luxury brands, it is still inseparable from the market environment of consumption upgrading. Although the outbreak of the epidemic has an impact on consumers' buying behavior, it is more just a delay than a cancellation. After all, houses and cars are still the ultimate goal for most people to improve their material life. In the case of high housing prices and cheaper cars (you can buy more advanced cars at the same price), luxury brands have naturally become a beacon.

Moreover, luxury brands are no longer unattainable, such as A-class, 1 series, which can actually be bought for less than 250,000; Coupled with the licensing restrictions in first-tier cities, consumers have been encouraged to put all their eggs in one basket to buy luxury cars. By the way, the brand appeal of luxury brands themselves, or face bonus, is also a factor that many consumers can't ignore. All of the above are the reasons for the sharp increase in luxury car sales this year.

However, compared with the unchangeable pattern of BBA, the competition for the top spot of second-tier luxury brands is much more intense. Taking advantage of the domestic home advantage, Cadillac tore open the opponent's defense line with terminal concessions, but Lexus, which has not lowered its price all the year round, has a stronger momentum. Its cumulative sales in June 1- 1 1 reached 202,647 vehicles, up 12.4% year-on-year, reaching the level of last year. 165438+ 10 even surpassed Cadillac in monthly sales. The phrase "buy up and not buy down" applies not only to the stock market but also to the luxury car market.

Luxury brands chasing the wind include Lincoln, Volvo and Jaguar Land Rover. Among them, there are already two SUVs, Adventurer and Flyer, in Changan Lincoln product camp, and soon the pilot will also be included in the domestic scope to fill the product gap of 350,000-500,000 yuan. Strive to reduce the cost dividend through localization, and further narrow the gap with Volvo while surpassing Jaguar Land Rover.

In addition, there are two new faces worthy of attention in the list of luxury brands: Tesla and Hongqi, one is a new force in building cars and the other is the national team. Perhaps it is still controversial whether they are qualified to squeeze into the ranks of luxury brands, but this issue is ultimately decided by consumers. As long as consumers are willing to buy it, it is a luxury brand. Don't forget, model? Sales of Series 3/Class C /A4L are pressing for several months. They may not erode BBA's share, but they are enough to devour minority luxury brands such as Acura and finidi.

Joint venture brand: differentiation intensifies

In 20 19, the Japanese joint venture brand represented by "two fields and one production" is still full of spring breeze. This tenacious resilience has continued until this year. Under the guidance of "two fields and one production", in June this year, Japanese brands surpassed German brands with a market share of 23.9%. It can be said that in addition to luxury brands, mainstream Japanese joint venture brands can be regarded as the fastest rebound in the epidemic.

Among them, the mixed front of "two fields" has achieved initial results, and the product layout also follows Volkswagen's two-car listing strategy, including Wilanda /RAV4 room integration and Fit /LIFE. In addition, under the background that consumers pay more and more attention to safety and reliability, it is expected that the "two fields" will be so smooth.

Although Nissan has not made great efforts in the field of hybrid and pure electricity for the time being, with the support of the three pillars of Sylphy, Qi Jun and Hacker, the cumulative sales volume of Dongfeng Nissan in June1-1has exceeded one million, and the annual sales target in 2020 has been achieved ahead of schedule.

The most dramatic scene of the joint venture brand appeared in the north and south Volkswagen. Compared with FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen has a hard time this year. As of June 1 1, SAIC-Volkswagen is still the only Top 10 manufacturer whose sales decreased year-on-year. I believe everyone can guess that it is nothing more than the butterfly effect caused by Passat's collision last year. As the saying goes, it's not that you don't report it, but it's not the right time.

Although judging from the latest crash test results released by C-IASI, 202 1 Passat finally successfully fixed the problem and regained the G-level evaluation. But I'm afraid it will take some time to regain the lost confidence of consumers. Who told me that the Internet has memories? In addition, it should be noted that SAIC- GM has been insisting on its own ass, Buick GL8 and Yinglang with four-cylinder engines have become powerful boosters of Buick brand, and SAIC-Volkswagen's leading position as the second child may be replaced by SAIC-GM, Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac.

This year is also the product year of Korean brands. Sonata 10, brand-new K5, seventh-generation Elantra, brand-new famous map, Paris and other cars have all been introduced into China. However, in the case that the brand appeal is not as good as that of German and Japanese, and the product cost performance is not as good as that of some independent brands, although the Korean brand has a strong counterattack, its durability may be worrying.

Independent brand: several happy families and several sad families

Remember the share expansion of luxury brands mentioned above? The chassis occupied by luxury brands happened to be lost by independent brands. Or to put it another way, the exploration of luxury brands has squeezed the living space of joint venture brands, and the joint venture brands naturally lay down, taking the cakes of their own brands as the entrance.

Brilliance, Zotye, Lifan and Li Xia will fall one after another in 2020, while Jianghuai sells itself to the public, and Haima and Southeast are also struggling. Only the independent brand of the head has also shown its sharp side. Take Chang 'an as an example. After being dormant for two years, CS75 series, Yidong and UNI-T have become the three pillars of Chang 'an brand, and Changan Auchan has also rejuvenated with X5 and X7. The design level and the technical advantage of Blue Whale Power are the keys to the shining moment of Changan in 2020.

In contrast, although Great Wall Motor is steady and steady, its popularity in the pickup field is the same, but the problem that it can't get off the city in the SUV field has been bothering it. The third generation H6 has won numerous praises, but the high-end brand WEY has been weak one after another. Even though WEY Tank 300 is amazing, the widening gap with Lectra may be difficult to reverse for a while.

As the leader of its own brand, Geely has no longer relied on a single model to support the overall situation, but has blossomed more, and cars and SUVs have made achievements. Based on CMA architecture, Xingrui achieved sales of 7,065,438+07 vehicles in the first month, which was not easy to put in the complicated automobile market. On the other hand, with the expansion of the product line, it is natural that the overall sales volume of the Lectra brand will increase. In the process of the development of high-end brands in China, Kelin has found a way.

As for Chery, Chuanqi, BYD, Roewe and MG, if they want to win enough living space for themselves in a few shares, it is the only way to impact the mid-to high-end market. Electrification is of course an opportunity for these brands to break through the price of 200,000 yuan, but it is inevitable that they will stumble when walking on one leg. When the dividend period of SUV has passed and the auto market fails to achieve the expected results, it is very important to choose which direction to break through.

Here I have to mention Wuling, which made Hong Guang MINI by its best and most grounded method. EV and Capgemini are two explosions. Facts have proved that those who are closest to the people are those who know the people best. But for Wuling, the existing products have failed to build an unbreakable wall, and the high-end journey is long and difficult. The volume of Xinbaojun was obviously overshadowed by Wuling this year. It is estimated that Wuling is more difficult to cross the psychological line of 6.5438+0.5 million yuan than other independent brands.

Write it at the end

If the automobile market before 20 18 is still in a state where everyone can share a piece of cake, then the stage of shuffling and elimination has already begun since 20 18. Under the tide of the new four modernizations, those car companies that have no time to transform and upgrade will surely become a submerged sand in the vast sea.

The core of consumption upgrading is to keep pace with the times in product value. The new energy era has indeed given many brands, especially independent brands, the opportunity to stand on the same starting line with foreign car companies. It can be predicted that 202 1 will have a lot of explosions from the ground, but taking Ding Zhen's recent explosion as an example, Ding Zhen's explosions are not the focus. How Litang County behind him successfully took off the hat of "the poor among the poor" and today it deserves our attention.

As the saying goes, watch others build tall buildings and watch his buildings collapse. "Strategic determination" is a common word in the country's foreign speech. In fact, it also applies to domestic car companies. Go your own way. Dawn may be late, not absent.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.