Is zero negative population growth in China a good thing or a bad thing?

The negative growth of my country’s population is a good thing

In an ecosystem, if there is no forced control by external forces, the number of lower species will always continue to multiply and grow until the number exceeds the capacity of the ecosystem. Leading to ecosystem collapse, catastrophe, and mass deaths. When the number of higher species increases to a density that is too high, they will consciously undergo birth control, stop growing and gradually fall back to a safe number, thus avoiding disaster.

In 2022, my country’s total population will decrease by 850,000 compared to the end of the previous year. After more than half a century of rapid population growth, the car has finally come to a halt, and my country's family planning national policy has finally taken effect. At the same time, the current pressure from my country's excessive population has also led to people's conscious birth control. We Chinese nation are highly capable of self-control. species. However, some people with ulterior motives are vigorously promoting the theory of population (decline) crisis. But looking at the overall situation, the root cause of the biggest crisis currently facing our country and the world is still overpopulation, not population reduction. What our country should do is let nature take its course and let the population naturally fall back to a reasonable range, rather than encourage an increase. fertility rate!

1. The problem of excessive population is still the Sword of Damocles hanging over our country

1. What is the reasonable population range of our country?

Academician Song Jian, a well-known cybernetic expert and director of the National Science and Technology Commission, studied 650 million (moderate population based on freshwater resources) and 738 million (maximum population capacity in 2050 based on agricultural products and protein). ). Li Xiaoping of the Institute of Population Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that China’s long-term population goal should be determined as follows: after 100 years, it should strive to reduce it to 800 million, and strive to reach a lower level. “In any case, it should not be higher than 1 billion, and it should be reduced after 200 years.” to a level of around 300 million, and at most not higher than 500 million.”

If calculated based on the global average cultivated land carrying population of 3 acres per person, China's cultivated land area is rapidly decreasing, but the bottom line is 1.8 billion acres, and China's reasonable population is 18/3=600 million people.

2. Our country’s population has been seriously overloaded

Our country’s current population has long exceeded the load capacity of our land. Almost all of our country’s plains suitable for farming and development have long been reclaimed. Excessive reclamation has caused the continuous degradation and shrinkage of our country's cultivated land, and the development of urbanization in our country has continued to encroach on cultivated land on a large scale, and the cultivated land is decreasing rapidly. In order to maintain the bottom line of 1.8 billion acres of cultivated land, our country is reclaiming mountainous land unsuitable for farming on a large scale as a "cultivated land occupation and compensation balance" , causing severe soil erosion and ecological deterioration, our country’s land cannot support a population of 1.4 billion people. my country has become the world's largest food importer, and the contradiction between overpopulation and land scarcity has become increasingly prominent. As the world's population continues to grow, a global food crisis is about to break out. As the world's largest population, China's life will be hanging by a thread if it relies on imported food and is surrounded by crises.

my country’s annual grain imports in 2022 will exceed 170 million tons, continuing to rank first in the world. my country’s imports of major agricultural products, equivalent to the sown area, exceed 1.1 billion acres. The food problem cannot be solved by importing as long as the economy develops. As the world's population grows, the remaining natural cultivated land needs to be continuously reclaimed, exacerbating the global ecological crisis. Brazil, which has the world's largest uncultivated land, the Amazon rainforest, is continuously reclaiming farmland to become the world's new granary, and gradually becoming one of the largest sources of imports of agricultural products in my country. (Brazil is my country's largest import source of virtual farmland resources for agricultural products.) The net import volume in 2021 is 35.618 million hectares, accounting for 38.1% of my country’s total imports of virtual cultivated land resources.) Although it has alleviated my country’s food pressure, the indirect damage to the rainforest has become increasingly serious. From January to August last year, Brazil The area of ??deforestation and burning forest in the Amazon rainforest area is 7,135 square kilometers, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Local farmers cut down and burn forests to reclaim land for growing crops and raising livestock. However, continued land reclamation will have a serious impact on global climate change and biodiversity. Relying on indirect cultivation of the last rainforest and other natural resources to provide imported food to maintain an overpopulation is undoubtedly quenching thirst by drinking doves.

3. Moral torture: Every increase in population is actually at the cost of depriving a group of wild animals of their living space and right to survive.

In the past few decades, humans have invaded the habitats of other species, continuously exterminated wild animals and plants and converted them into cultivated land to feed the growing population. Released by the World Wildlife Fund on October 13, 202 The "Living Planet Report 2022" shows that human activities have caused the global wildlife population to decrease by 69% compared with 1970. Over the past half century, the total number of global wild animal populations that have been driven to extinction by humans has been equivalent to the entire population of Europe, America, Africa, Oceania and China combined. The excessive growth of human population in recent years has led to the mass extinction of biological species. The current rate of species disappearance is much higher than any previous mass extinction event. If this continues, by the end of the 21st century, 50% of all species on the earth will disappear.

4. Disaster is coming

Today human society is facing severe environmental problems (currently human beings are mainly facing ten major global environmental problems: global warming, biodiversity loss, forest sharp decline, land desertification, air pollution, water pollution, ocean pollution, etc.) and resource issues (global resource issues are becoming increasingly prominent. Humanity is facing severe challenges of shortage or even depletion of important resources such as water, land, forests, and minerals.), The main root cause of these problems is excessive population growth. Our planet can no longer afford such a large population.

my country's current high-yield agriculture that maintains such a huge population is based on high reliance on chemical fertilizers, pesticides and fossil energy. It is difficult to sustain for a long time. Soil degradation and soil erosion are becoming increasingly serious. Once shallow layers are easily mined, After fossil energy and fertilizer raw material minerals (for example, my country's total reserves of phosphate rock are 3.2 billion tons, which will be exhausted in less than 37 years at the current mining rate of 85 million tons per year), mining costs rise sharply. World agricultural production will decline sharply, and the exhaustion of fossil energy will cause a large amount of farmland to be converted to the production of biofuels (currently, the annual global food consumption converted to the production of biofuels has exceeded 300 million tons.) , will no longer be able to sustain the survival of such a huge population. The world's developable farmland has been almost exhausted. Due to urbanization and soil erosion, farmland area is also rapidly decreasing and degrading. In order to maintain the excessive population Excessive cultivation and consumption of fossil energy have caused great changes in the earth's climate. Global warming will lead to a significant reduction in agricultural production. The earth will be even more unable to sustain the existing huge population, and disasters will be reduced.

So, the population must decline to avoid disaster and survive the crisis safely!

2. The nonsense of proponents of the population decline crisis theory

Some proponents of the population decline crisis theory talk nonsense in order to so-called avoid the aging of the population, the prosperity of the nation, and the demographic dividend to protect the economy. Use excuses to denigrate national policies. Is this really the case?

1. Fallacy that misleads the country: Population aging crisis theory

The population aging crisis is a false proposition. The so-called population aging is actually just an inevitable result of the increase in the average life expectancy of society. Reflecting the progress of civilization, the 1982 World Assembly on Aging in Vienna determined that the proportion of the elderly aged 60 and above accounted for more than 10% of the total population, which meant that this country or region had entered a serious aging stage. If the population remains stable for a long time, assuming the average life span is 80 years old, it means that more than 20% of the population are 60 years old and above. This is the so-called super aging society. If the elderly population is to be reduced to less than 10%, then the population Rapid growth is necessary to avoid the so-called aging. Today's world population has exceeded the ecological load of the earth. If it continues to grow, it will be a disaster. This so-called population aging crisis theory is very ignorant and extremely harmful.

Population aging crisis theorists believe that the elderly are useless and a burden on society. They require as few elderly people as possible and as many young people as possible. Only then can society and the country have hope. However, the reality is completely opposite. All developed countries in the world today Countries have a relatively high proportion of elderly people, while countries with a high proportion of young people are basically poor countries with no hope and future, such as Niger (population under 14 years old accounts for 50% of the total population), and Uganda (population under 14 years old accounts for 50% of the total population). 48% of the population), Afghanistan (the population under 14 years old accounts for 47% of the total population), etc. In fact, the only thing that can realize the ideal of population aging crisis theorists is primitive society. The mortality rate in primitive society is extremely high. Most people do not live to old age, and there are many young people and few old people.

Once we enter modern society and the death rate decreases, if we still require more young people and fewer old people, then it won’t be long before the world falls into the disaster of population explosion and ecological collapse.

Although the physical strength of the elderly is not as good as that of young people, their knowledge and experience are higher than those of young people. With the development of science and technology, the development of productivity relies more on knowledge and experience rather than physical strength, so In developed societies, older people are more productive than younger people, but the retirement system creates the illusion that older people are a burden on society. At the age of 87, Academician Zhong Nanshan is still qualified to be my country's leader in fighting the epidemic. Biden is still president at the age of 80. Zhang Zhongmou returned to TSMC as CEO at the age of 78 and led it to turn losses into profits at the age of 86, making TSMC's market value surpass Intel and become the world's largest semiconductor company. At present, the main force in agriculture, the industry that relies most on physical strength in our country, is instead the elderly in their 60s and 70s, while the unemployment rate among young people is extremely high. my country's youth unemployment rate will reach 19.9% ??in 2022.

Encouraging an increase in the fertility rate under the pretext of population aging is an attempt to subvert my country’s national family planning policy. It will plunge our country into a crisis of overpopulation, resource depletion, and ecological collapse. The theory of a population aging crisis, which is harmful to the country and people, can no longer be discussed. also.

2. Is keeping the population growing for the sake of the prosperity of the country?

However, historical reality has severely slapped the advocates of the population decline crisis theory in the face. Throughout history, the periods of highest population growth in our country’s history were mostly when countries and nations began to decline or even be about to perish. start.

Let us take a look at the eras of the top three most populous countries in Chinese history.

Late Northern Song Dynasty: The population of more than 30 million in the early years of the Northern Song Dynasty increased to 126 million in 1124, becoming the era with the largest Han population in history. However, it was soon overtaken by the minority Jin Kingdom (population 7 million) ) destroyed.

The late Ming Dynasty: the initial population was 60.55 million. By the third year of Chongzhen (1630), the population of the Ming Dynasty reached its peak, about 193 million, but it was quickly depopulated to only 200. The country was destroyed by tens of thousands of Jurchens.

Late Qing Dynasty: There were 70 million people in the early Qing Dynasty. After Yongzheng introduced the policy of "dividing dice into acres" to encourage childbirth, the population began to skyrocket. In the late Qing Dynasty, it reached 436 million in 1851, almost accounting for the total population of the world at that time Half of the Qing Dynasty, it became the weakest and slavish dynasty. In the Sino-Japanese War, it was defeated by Japan, which had a population of only one-tenth of the Qing Dynasty.

It can be seen that a large population does not mean that a country is strong. On the contrary, every time in history, after the population grew too densely, the contradiction between man and land intensified, leading to civil strife and decline of the country and nation.

3. Synonymous with exploitation and oppression: the theory of demographic dividend,

Advocates of the crisis theory of population decline propose that population reduction will make the demographic dividend disappear and our country’s economy will suffer a blow. This is a joke. No developed country in the world today has a developed economy because of the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend is actually the patent of poor and backward countries! In essence, it is synonymous with poor workers selling their labor power cheaply and being brutally exploited and squeezed by capitalists. Our country should not continue to rely on the development of the so-called demographic dividend to develop its economy, but should rely on scientific and technological progress to become its core competitiveness.

On the contrary, because of the excessive population growth in our country, land is extremely scarce, making it increasingly difficult to free up open space for industrial development. Overpopulation has also led to high housing costs and increased labor costs. It has seriously hindered the further development of our country's economy.

3. A wise move by the great China.

Our country’s family planning national policy over the years is a wise move and has won the support of the vast majority of the people. It has prevented our country from falling into the disaster of population explosion. However, the current population pressure is still relatively severe, such as Excessive housing prices are a reflection of overpopulation leading to the imminent depletion of land resources.

In order to avoid the disaster of population explosion, our country has strictly implemented the one-child policy for a long time. An entire generation has made huge sacrifices. It has finally worked now, but our country is still under huge (excessive) population pressure. Under the circumstances, if the national policy now makes a 180-degree turn and instead rewards the birth of three children, it will damage the government's credibility and make the public doubt the correctness of the government's leadership.

Indeed, the fertility rate of highly educated people is relatively low. If the government must change from birth control to a policy of encouraging birth, it should learn from Singapore and encourage some highly educated people who do not want to have children. Fertility, and strictly control the blind reproduction of low-educated people with high fertility rates, so as to avoid the degradation of national quality.

To encourage childbirth, we should also encourage people who have never had a child to have their first child, rather than encourage people who have already given birth to two children to have a third child!

Our rational approach should be to allow our country's population to fall back to a safe range before considering whether to increase the fertility rate. If the population decline rate in 2022 is to increase by 850,000 per year, it will take 792 years to fall within the safe range of 738 million. Even if the population drops to 334 million, the same number as the United States, it is not necessarily a crisis of too small a population.

Our world faces a crisis of overpopulation, not underpopulation, and disaster is coming. The negative growth of my country's population is a glimmer of hope. However, some people with ulterior motives use the excuse of negative population growth to promote the fallacy of the population (reduction) crisis to confuse people and harm the country and the people. It may affect the national decision-making to change from a population control policy to a policy of encouraging population growth. This will make our country sink into overpopulation, leading to resource depletion and ecological The danger of collapse and intensification of social contradictions is the huge crisis our country is currently facing