Cao Dewang: "To make new energy vehicles, we must not rely on state subsidies." Although the words are serious, they are practical.

Recently, Cao Dewang, the famous entrepreneur and chairman of Fuyao Glass, made a speech at the 12th China Automobile Blue Book Forum, which made me feel that China's new energy market is still very young.

Cao Dewang said at the Blue Book Forum, "Electric vehicles are the development direction of the new round of automobile industry, but this is only the direction, and it is not the time yet. A product that relies entirely on product subsidies is bound to die, and the only way is to break away from it. Subsidies are needed to survive. Automakers should insist on effective investment, and investment and output must be proportional." Cao Dewang not only recognized the development trend of vehicle electrification, but also euphemistically expressed the need to build new energy vehicles. A large amount of funds. Obviously, this amount of funds is far from the 20 billion level mentioned by NIO Li Bin. Interestingly, when asked by the host whether he owned an electric car, Cao Dewang said, "This is what young people ride on."

Later, Boss Cao shared a little experience with everyone at the scene: "I chatted with two bosses of new energy vehicles the year before last. They said this is the direction and the government has subsidies. I was very polite. They were told that there is a limit to economic subsidies and cannot be increased. What should companies do? As an entrepreneur, if you rely entirely on state subsidies to operate a product, it is equivalent to waiting for death. ” p>

The words are strong, but very practical.

The demand for new energy vehicles has not yet been "ignited"

Looking at previous results, from 2014 to 2015, stimulated by purchase subsidies and tax preferential policies, my country's new energy vehicles Production has achieved leaps and bounds, from 78,500 vehicles in 2014 to 340,500 vehicles in 2015, almost five times. ?

However, since the reduction of new energy subsidies in June last year, domestic new energy vehicle sales have declined for 12 consecutive months and did not resume growth until July this year. It is worth mentioning that such a large growth rate is due to the low sales base in July due to the reduction of new energy subsidies last year. On the other hand, it is due to the country’s continued policy support for the development of new energy vehicles, including The purchase subsidy policy will be extended to the end of 2022, while the intensity and pace of subsidy reduction will be smoothed out, etc.

In fact, it is no secret that car companies rely on new energy vehicles to earn state subsidies, local government subsidies, various land tax policies and other subsidies. It has even become a "hidden rule" in the industry. , and some car companies also set up travel companies, and then dismantle the key parts of the vehicles sold to the travel companies and assemble them into new cars, which greatly reduces costs. Only in this way can they make money. As a result, the real demand for new energy vehicles does not seem to be that great.

It’s really not profitable to make new energy vehicles

It is undeniable that in the process of cultivating the new energy vehicle market, some promising companies have emerged, such as Weilai Automobile, Xpeng Motors, these two car companies have one thing in common, that is, the founders lead by example. Especially Li Bin of NIO, who was rated as "the most miserable person in 2019" finally led NIO through the darkest moment.

According to NIO’s financial report, NIO’s revenue in the second quarter of this year was 3.72 billion yuan, and its gross profit margin became positive for the first time. Its automobile sales gross profit was 9.7, and the overall profit was 8.4. At the same time, its vehicle-electricity separation model has also been verified. It can be said that it brings a new production model, product model and operation and maintenance model to the industry, and these are the biggest shortcomings of traditional car companies.

But even so, Weilai and Xiaopeng still have no "pants" left. Therefore, it is impossible for new forces to make money at the moment. "Losing less but making money" is the current situation of new car-making forces. No, maybe it will be the situation in the next ten years. Let’s not talk nonsense, let’s look at the data.

In Q4 of 2019, Weilai’s operating loss reached 2.83 billion, with a loss rate of 99% and a loss of 344,000 for each vehicle delivered. Affected by the epidemic, NIO's delivery volume dropped sharply in Q1 2020, and its bicycle operating loss reached a record high of 409,000. The ex-factory price of each vehicle was less than 330,000 yuan, and the loss was nearly 410,000 yuan.

In Q2 2020, the gross profit margin returned to positive, the expense rate dropped sharply, and the operating loss rate suddenly dropped to 31. The gross loss for each car sold was 114,000, and 91,000 marketing/administrative expenses were shared (2019 It will cost 188,000 yuan in Q4 of the year). In addition, NIO also promises lifetime free maintenance and lifetime free battery replacement. What car owners are most worried about is that the company cannot continue to operate. Do you think this is not a loss? Xiaopeng’s ability to lose money is not weak either. In Q2 2020, 3,228 vehicles were delivered, with an operating loss of 810 million, which is 252,000 per vehicle, which is much higher than the ex-factory price.

Having finished talking about the new forces in car manufacturing, let’s talk about the leader in the field of independent new energy, BYD. As a veteran company that has been deeply involved in the field of new energy for many years, it has received nearly 9 billion yuan in national new energy subsidies in the past five years, but so what?

BYD's 2019 annual report disclosed by the public shows that BYD achieved operating income of 127.739 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%; net profit was 1.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.93%. Among them, the government subsidy included in the current profit and loss was 1.483 billion yuan. The government subsidies in BYD's financial report are mainly subsidies for new energy vehicles provided by the government. It is conceivable that new energy vehicles really mean making money at a loss!

Terashi Shigeki, Vice President of Toyota Motor Corporation, was asked by the media at the 2019 Tokyo Motor Show, "Why did Toyota launch pure electric vehicles so late?" He replied: "Because pure electric vehicles do not make money. . ”

The purpose of the generous special subsidies from the central government is to help the new energy vehicle industry, which is still in its infancy, get on the right track as soon as possible and reduce the financial burden on consumers to purchase new energy vehicles. However, because the subsidy method is too extensive, companies from all walks of life want to enter the field of new energy vehicles and get a share of the dividend period in the development of new energy vehicles. But the reality is cruel. Once subsidies are withdrawn, new energy vehicle sales will decline, and a large number of new energy vehicle companies will withdraw.

Cao Dewang said that new energy vehicles are made by rich people like Xu Jiayin. This does not mean that Evergrande’s new energy road will be smooth. I just want to tell everyone that new energy vehicles are still in use at this stage. It is impossible for car companies that burn money and rely on state subsidies to survive.

Finally, let’s talk about Tesla?

When it comes to new energy, we have to mention Tesla. From import to domestic production, Tesla has been accompanied by controversy all the way, including settling in The various preferential policies provided by the local government after Shanghai made many netizens once think that they were "too good" for Tesla. Why should Tesla be allowed to cut leeks in the new energy vehicle market that we have spent a lot of money to cultivate?

If nothing else, let’s first calculate how much subsidies Tesla received from the state in the first half of 2020.

For Tesla Model 3 Long Range Edition and Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Edition, the reference subsidy amounts for each unit from January to April are 27,500 yuan and 24,750 yuan, while? The subsidy amounts from May to June are RMB 13,750 and RMB 12,375. ?

According to compulsory traffic insurance data, the number of Tesla Model 3 long-range versions insured in China from January to April was 1,537 from May to June; The domestic insurance volume of Model 3 standard-range version from January to April was 20,168 units, and from May to June, it was 24,802 units. Combined with the above-mentioned single-unit subsidy amount, the total subsidy received by Tesla in the first half of the year was finally calculated to be approximately ?827 million yuan. It can be said that in the first half of this year, Tesla alone took away 19.4% of my country's new energy subsidies.

In addition, Tesla’s price fluctuations, configuration changes and after-sales service have also made some Tesla owners miserable. “Leek” is everyone’s nickname for Tesla owners... But we What needs to be clear is that Tesla’s domestic production has indeed brought strong competition to my country’s new energy vehicle market. The “catfish” effect has emerged, and the demand for new energy markets seems to have been “activated”.

In fact, we cannot simply equate Tesla’s popularity in China with consumers’ favor for new energy vehicles. After all, among the new energy vehicle companies that started their business at the same time, Tesla is the only one that has become “popular”. .

Tesla was initially called "the big toy of the rich". Most consumers choose it not just because of the simple advantages such as cost savings brought by new energy vehicles, but because of Tesla's unique philosophy and design style. , intelligent configuration and an intelligent system that can be upgraded and iterated.

In other words, many potential consumers of luxury cars choose Tesla not simply to pay for electric cars, but to be attracted by its sense of technology and unprecedented concepts. So when China's new energy brands can rely on their own charm to attract everyone like Tesla, subsidies will not be so important.

The current consumer demand in the new energy vehicle market is mostly generated under the command of policies. Facing the future, if new energy vehicles want to compete head-on with traditional fuel vehicles, they need to understand and grasp the market more systematically. In order for future new energy vehicles to truly win the favor of consumers, they must achieve a balance in several key areas such as personalization, cost and intelligence, and surpass traditional vehicles in terms of experience, in order to have greater room for development. By then new energy vehicles will definitely make money!

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.