Theoretically, Shanghai can realize social liquidation within 10 days to two weeks. How do experts interpret this?

Theoretically, Shanghai can realize social liquidation within 10 days to two weeks. How do experts interpret this? Let's discuss this problem below, hoping that these contents can help friends in need.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the total number of new infections has increased every day. From April 7 to 10, the number of newly infected people exceeded 20,000 for four consecutive days, and the number of newly infected people reached 26,087 on June 10, setting a record for one-day growth. On April 9th, Ming Zong, executive vice mayor of Shanghai, made it clear at the press conference of COVID-19 epidemic that Shanghai would conduct another comprehensive nucleic acid test.

Why do nucleic acid tests have to be carried out round after round? When did the Shanghai epidemic turn for the better? Wu Zunyou, a professor of clinical epidemiology at China CDC, wrote in Sina Weibo on April 8 that continuous nucleic acid testing is to better screen infected people who have not been detoxified and whose Dna is temporarily negative; The second, third and fourth rounds of screening were conducted continuously. Theoretically, from the perspective of social development, it will take 65,438+00 days to two weeks to clear the COVID-19 epidemic.

Wu Zunyou, a Sina Weibo, said that when the COVID-19 epidemic is widely spread in the community, keeping the social development clear is the most effective countermeasure. Nucleic acid detection with the goal of zero clearance should be rapid and complete.

The average incubation period of Omicron strain is 3 days, and the virus infection is gradually excreted from the body 1 ~ 2 days before the first onset. In other words, if a person has reasonable contact with an infected person in COVID-19 and is infected, the nucleic acid test on the same day or even the next day is basically negative, and the nucleic acid test on the third day is more meaningful.

Wu Zunyou said that in the first round of comprehensive screening, those infected people who have been detoxified in vitro can be screened out, but those infected with the virus but not detoxified in vitro will have Dna negative results. If the infected people who have not detoxified in vitro are not treated in time, they will quickly develop into infected people who have detoxified in vitro and spread the virus in the community again.

Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a second round of comprehensive screening, screen out the virus before it spreads to others, and stop spreading. Because nucleic acid detection is super sensitive, as long as there is a virus in the throat, it can generally be detected as positive. If the infected person's nucleic acid test is negative, the risk of transmitting the virus to others can be almost ignored according to inhalation or speech within 24 hours.

When did the epidemic turn in Shanghai? Wu Zunyou said that for a megacity with a population of 27 million, if we conduct a round of nucleic acid testing for all employees in the city within 2-3 days, and continue to conduct 3-4 rounds of nucleic acid testing for all employees in the city, theoretically speaking, from the perspective of social development, it will take 10 to 2 weeks to clear the COVID-19 epidemic.