Is the campaign against Dong Mingzhu excessive or not enough?

Is the "encirclement and suppression" of Dong Mingzhu excessive, or is it far from enough? (This article is in-depth and is recommended to be read)

I believe you already know the so-called 1 billion bet between Lei Jun and Dong Mingzhu. I won’t say much about the matter itself. Next I would like to recommend this review article by Mr. Bai Gang, which is the most in-depth review I have ever seen.

If you want to ask me about my attitude, I just want to use two metaphors from management scientist Collins to illustrate.

Collins studied tens of thousands of companies, trying to find the commonalities among great entrepreneurs. Finally, he discovered several rules, one of which he called "looking in the mirror and looking out the window." .

He pointed out that excellent entrepreneurs, when everything goes smoothly, are accustomed to attribute it to external factors such as luck, that is, "looking out the window." When encountering difficulties, you will look for the reasons from yourself, which is also said to "look in the mirror."

Many entrepreneurs who ultimately fail are just the opposite. When they succeed, they look in the mirror and think that they are capable. They look out the window during bad times and think it's bad luck.

Dear, Lei Jun or Dong Mingzhu, who is looking in the mirror? Who is looking out the window? (Tan Hao)

Dong Lei’s bet, Jack Ma won! ?

Comment: Bai Gang

You know what we are arguing about is not the result. No one took the bet seriously. But there is truth in it, and I would like to explain it again if I want to distinguish it.

Deep reading expert: Bai Gang (disciple of Mr. Bao Zheng)

In the past two days, the bet between Ms. Dong Mingzhu and Mr. Lei Jun has occupied the headlines in the business field. This is not a battle of spirits, nor a battle of models, but a battle of two concepts. I didn’t want to join in the fun, but many friends called to discuss it. What they care about is not who loses or wins, but the reasoning behind winning or losing. I can't push it away, so let's try to explain it.

1. Ms. Dong Mingzhu will lose. She does not need 5 years, but 3 years is enough.

The basic principle of management is that companies must always ask themselves: How did they win in the past? Can these factors support the company to continue to win? What else does a business need to continue winning? Therefore, it is asserted that Ms. Dong will lose. This needs to start with how she wins.

The first person to realize the value of Gree was Mr. Yuan Xincheng, the former president of TCL Group. In 2004, he wanted to invest 1 billion to control Gree, but was blocked by the local government and failed. Gree also achieved rapid development after this. The main reasons for its growth are three points:

First, urbanization opened up a huge market for air conditioners and refrigerators. In this process, not only Gree, but every company is growing rapidly. This is no different from Mr. Lei Jun’s success in the field of smartphones, both benefiting from external market opportunities. It's just that Mr. Lei admitted that he was "a sow that climbed a tree with the help of a typhoon", while Ms. Dong mostly recognized herself. A judgment has been made here, and Ms. Dong has lost.

The home appliance market is spreading from cities to rural areas, and it starts with TVs, which are most needed by consumers, commonly known as black appliances; followed by washing machines, refrigerators and air conditioners, commonly known as white appliances. Due to customer demand, air conditioners are the latest to start and have the largest market. Because only one refrigerator and washing machine can be used per family, but one air conditioner is required for each room. In the past ten years, with the help of the typhoon of urbanization, the air-conditioning market has soared, which is the primary condition for Gree's success.

So, in the past ten years, not only Gree, but all companies in the air-conditioning field have been successful. TCL has done so poorly in recent years, and its annual sales of air conditioners have exceeded 10 billion. And not only air conditioners, but also companies in the refrigerator field are successful. Cologne was artificially destroyed, and a few people from it and a few people from Wal-Mart started from scratch, specializing in refrigerators, and also became a listed company.

Second, Gree, like Midea, has established a manufacturer alliance. In many fields, manufacturers have become obviously separated or even opposed. 90 years ago, General Motors' Sloan used a manufacturer alliance to overtake the all-powerful Ford. In China, Mr. Yuan Xincheng was the first to implement this concept. In the TV field, he relied on the manufacturer integration alliance to defeat the equally arrogant Changhong. Later, Mr. Yuan informed Mr. He Xiangjian of Midea about this concept, and Midea succeeded.

Moreover, Midea has gone one step further and even established joint ventures with some dealers to form in-depth ties. The moral here is that air conditioners are semi-finished products and depend on installation. The consumption time of air conditioners is very concentrated, and having huge installation capacity is the basis for controlling the market.

The installation ability does not lie with the manufacturer, but with the dealer. Therefore, manufacturer alliances are more important and more powerful. The semi-finished nature of air conditioners is the reason why Greineng and Suning Gome are competing against each other. It is also the reason why air conditioners have not been the favorite of e-commerce sales so far.

Gree follows Midea in implementing the manufacturer alliance. Ms. Dong is a hero among women. She is forthright, good at drinking, and unpretentious. This is very easy to create charisma among dealers. This is the intrinsic reason for Gree's success.

The earliest successful Chunlan made strategic mistakes. Later, Gree, Midea and Haier followed up in the air-conditioning field without making any mistakes, and relied on the strength of the manufacturer alliance to become the troika of the industry. Gree's The future growth potential is not as good as Midea and Haier.

Third, Gree has a very solid quality gene. This is Gree's strength. It does not use tricks and does not compromise quality in order to reduce costs. Among the troika of air conditioners, Haier sells services, Midea sells appearance, and Gree sells quality. Ms. Dong was wrong. Gree’s advantage is not the manufacturing factory, but the quality gene. However, in an era before manufacturing specialization, Gree relied on factories to ensure quality. This is not due to Ms. Dong, this quality gene was laid by the former chairman Mr. Zhu Jianghong.

So are these three items enough to support Gree’s continued growth? Obviously not. There are still two to three years of rapid urbanization development, and then it will enter a period of slowdown. More importantly, future home appliances must be intelligent, which Ms. Dong does not understand; future home appliance consumers will be young people, which Ms. Dong does not understand. If she is smart enough, Ms. Dong should understand that what Mr. Lei knows is not marketing, but understanding customers and using technology to make traditional home appliances smart. Ms. Dong did not work hard on key points, but instead prayed to Jack Ma. Not only did she lose the future, she may even lose reality. How does Gree balance e-commerce and dealers? How does Gree deal with Midea and Haier?

Ms. Dong understands traditional manufacturing and manufacturer alliances. In recent years, Gree has been learning from Midea, taking advantage of its supply chain, manufacturing and channel advantages to sell other traditional home appliances and small home appliances. Can this have a future? Once Gree declines, will dealers choose to sink with it, or choose another partner?

Ms. Dong reminds me of Ms. Wu Shihong, the former president of Microsoft China and vice president of TCL. The two are very similar in personality, ability, strengths and weaknesses. I'm afraid, Ms. Dong's ending is not as good as Ms. Wu's. I originally thought Ms. Dong was somewhat of an entrepreneur. After watching this bet, I felt a little sad. Another hero had fallen. Gree is in danger!

2. Mr. Lei Jun will definitely win, but if he wins the bet, will he win the future?

I think Mr. Lei’s original intention was to help fellow villagers change their thinking. The situation has become a farce. Firstly, Mr. Lei is not good at speaking, which hurts Ms. Dong's self-esteem; secondly, Ms. Dong is weak in cultivation and cultivation and misunderstands good intentions; thirdly, CCTV is somewhat unscrupulous and makes people angry. This has harmed Ms. Dong and exposed her shortcomings to the eyes of the people across the country.

Mr. Lei had no intention of making this bet, he knew he would win. He is very clear-headed and knows that Xiaomi has been lucky in its growth and has caught up with the wave of smart phones. He also knows that the wave of phone replacement brought by this wave will still be three years away, which is enough for Xiaomi to surpass Gree.

But Lei Jun’s sight is no longer about mobile phones. What he saw were two things: one was the younger generation of consumers. Xiaomi relied on mobile phones to gather a huge number of young people. Xiaomi got into the lifestyle and hearts of this group of people and created the buzz and support of this group of people; The other is the intelligence of life equipment. Xiaomi will not sell Mi Rabbit (this is just for fun, a trick to make young people more excited). What Xiaomi wants to do is smart TVs, smart refrigerators, smart washing machines, smart air conditioners, smart Cars... and make these things interconnected and unified on customers' smartphones. Is this far?

While many people thought that the Internet was just an e-commerce business, Lei Jun was thinking about the powerful power generated by the combination of new technologies and the mobile Internet, which would subvert many industries. Lei Jun is very wise and foolish. He is hiding the truth and saying everywhere that he is making an Internet mobile phone. In fact, what Xiaomi does is not mobile phones or the Internet, but a community for young people. Xiaomi's business focus is on Xiaomi.com and online and offline activities, relying on this to organize young people. Just do some math, how many loyal customers does Xiaomi have? 1 million? 10 million? 100 million? How much value does Xiaomi provide to each customer every year? 1 thousand? 10,000? 100,000? Do some multiplication calculations, how big can Xiaomi be in the future?

Ms. Dong’s understanding of Mr. Lei is too superficial.

Mr. Lei knew very well that he would definitely win this bet. He said that the five years were just to save some favor for his fellow villagers and seniors. I have recently been serializing an analysis article about Xiaomi. Let me explain the more detailed content slowly.

But what I am worried about is Xiaomi’s future. Gree will end up like Nokia, and will die due to the subversion of its traditional business. But Xiaomi’s crisis lies not in its market space, but in its organization. Xiaomi has grown too fast and has no time to establish a management system. Among the more than 3,000 employees, 1,000 work on Xiaomi.com, 1,700 work on the call center, and 500 work on R&D. Almost everyone in this group of people works more than 12 hours a day and nearly 30 days a month. What do they rely on? If it is Lei Jun's personality charm, I think it is too exaggerated. The most important reason is that option incentives stimulate the original desires of young people, and then use the simplest way of entrusting management to guide this group of people into task orientation. Can this last for a long time?

I dare not make any judgments. Lei Gong from Qizheng Tibetan Medicine taught me not to use the known to deny the unknown. So I dare not say that Xiaomi cannot succeed by relying on zero management, but I have studied countless domestic and foreign companies with my mentor Mr. Bao Zheng, and I have never seen any sustained success by relying on zero management. For the specific reasons, please read my previous article analyzing New Oriental.

Xiaomi cannot allocate options to all key personnel like Huawei, which has covered more than 70,000 employees so far. Xiaomi has received several rounds of investment, and if it wants to go public, it will inevitably limit the scope of option incentives. If this is gone and there is no management, how can Xiaomi unify more and more people and let them continue to work hard? Rely on continuously spinning off businesses to expand incentives? This is feasible in the medium term, but further extremes in zero management may put Xiaomi on a path of no return.

If Mr. Lei is wise, he should put down the gamble, slow down Xiaomi's business growth after three years, and gradually introduce management. This is why I worry about Xiaomi's future. Mr. Lei has never relied on management to succeed. Whether he can make further progress is worth looking forward to.

3. Mr. Jack Ma is fishing in troubled waters. If you win now, you will lose the future!

I have always had expectations for Mr. Jack Ma, hoping that he would become more ambitious and even surpass that generation of Chinese entrepreneurs such as Mr. Ren Zhengfei, Mr. Zhang Ruimin and Mr. Liu Chuanzhi. After this bet, considering his extreme boycott of WeChat, I saw Mr. Jack Ma’s cunning, commonly known as “thief nature.” In the history of business, we have never seen anyone who can achieve success by relying on cunning. At this point, my expectations for Mr. Jack Ma have come to an end.

Mr. Jack Ma also took advantage of the panic of traditional companies about the Internet and began to recruit these traditional giants. This will allow Mr. Jack Ma to reach a higher level in the short term. He will not only be the savior of millions of small merchants on Taobao, but also the savior of the big names who once dismissed him. But Mr. Jack Ma has been stunned by this "achievement", which will affect his determination to change.

What appeared in my mind was this picture: A big ship was about to sink. Mr. Jack Ma sailed over and shouted, "Get on my ship." Then he counted the money with one hand and collected the people with the other. The pleasure of money defeated reason. Mr. Ma Yun's boat was overweight and unfortunately sank before it reached the other shore.

Mr. Jack Ma imagines himself as an aircraft carrier. But Mr. Ma Huateng is not. What he wants to build is a fleet of extensive cooperation. He will unite all emerging forces such as Xiaomi and JD.com. Therefore, Mr. Jack Ma has built a huge Internet distribution platform, while Mr. Ma Huateng has built a community. The huge difference in philosophy makes the two horses different from each other. Mr. Ma Yun can only be the younger brother.

4. Mr. Wang Jianlin smiled, and he realized that he still had a chance.

Mr. Wang Jianlin’s few words allowed me to see his tremendous progress this year. He decisively put down the bet he made a year ago and humbly asked the new generation for advice. This is much better than Ms. Dong. If I guess correctly, Mr. Wang is making the next big move. First, he took a small part of the business to unite with Mr. Jack Ma. This means that Mr. Jack Ma’s system is valuable now, but its value is only in the channels and does not form a community. Therefore, cooperation is required, but cannot be overly expected; then, he will Taking a large part of the business to cooperate with Mr. Ma Huateng represents the future; finally, he will learn from Mr. Lei and shift the focus of his business to the lifestyle of young people, especially the entertainment and tourism industries.

So, Mr. Wang saw through Mr. Ma Yun’s cunning and Ms. Dong’s superficiality. He understood that he still had the opportunity to change, and he deliberately embraced the future.

5. CCTV is the real winner, but it has lost face.

The gambling game for two consecutive years has allowed CCTV to steal everyone's attention. This is something the average media can only dream of. But we have never dared to regard CCTV as an ordinary media. We also thought that the gambling game last year was due to the shallowness of the two horse kings. Now it seems that CCTV is the one who made the game.

Mr. Chen Weihong is wise and thinks that the dispute between Dong Lei and Dong Lei is very interesting, so he proposed a dispute over models. Mr. Jack Ma helped him improve and turned it into a battle of ideas. This point has been grasped extremely well, and it has aroused extensive discussion and profound thinking in the business field. This is a great contribution.

But Mr. Lei Jun’s one-yuan bet was directed by CCTV and turned into 1 billion. What has CCTV become? I don’t want to imagine it, but I just know that CCTV has contributed to China’s GDP. Ten years ago, we treated that story as a joke: Two economists made a bet to eat dog shit, which helped increase the U.S. GDP by $200 million. Now the joke has a real Chinese version. Neither Ms. Dong nor Mr. Lei would seriously spend 1 billion yuan. CCTV intentionally helped our GDP increase by 2 billion yuan.

A wonderful debate was disguised as absurd, and CCTV was embarrassed. In order to show that I have a better sense of humor than Mr. Lei, I added this paragraph as a joke to make everyone who has worked hard to read this article relax, haha.