Why do you say that Ma Yun and Wang Jianlin will lose 100 million yuan in the future gambling business?

Ma Yun and Wang Jianlin bet that after 10 years, if e-commerce accounts for 50% of the retail market in China, Wang Jianlin will lose 100 million to Ma Yun, and vice versa. My conclusion is that Ma Yun will pay 100 million yuan.

After watching the debate between the two, the words were very sharp. What impressed me most was that Ma Yun said: "The competition between traditional retail industry and the Internet is like being in front of a machine gun. There is no difference between Tai Ji Chuan and Shaolin Boxing. I'll shoot you. " Wang Jianlin did not provide a strong counterattack.

First of all, there is actually no substantial cost difference between online and offline.

There is not enough argument to prove that the cost online is lower than that offline. Ma Yun said that only "one computer" is enough, greatly exaggerating the advantages of online. A counterexample in reality is that from the annual reports of Wal-Mart and Amazon, the gross profit margin of Amazon in recent five years is around 22%, while that of Wal-Mart is around 24%; Wal-Mart is a little better. I think this is because of the scale effect of Wal-Mart.

Now suppose there are two department stores, one is called "You Move" and the other is called "I Deliver". As the name implies, the "you come to move" store is a physical store, renting shops and hiring a group of sales staff; "I deliver" store is an e-commerce company. There are no stores, and all goods are delivered to your door. Suppose their annual sales amount is 654.38+000000000 yuan, each amount is 654.38+000 yuan, and the total amount is 65.438+000 billion yuan. The annual rent, labor, water and electricity expenses of the "You Come to Move" store are assumed to be 1 100 million yuan, which is10% of the sales; Gross profit rate is 20%, and net profit 1 100 million. The "I send" store has no cost such as rent, water and electricity, and there is very little labor, which can be ignored. Other costs are only assumed to be "a computer" and are ignored; However, it has a cost, that is, the delivery fee, no matter how much, is delivered to the door for free. If the express delivery fee is 10 yuan per order, the cost is also 1 100 million yuan. Gross profit rate is 20%, and net profit 1 100 million.

If the efficiency of "coming and going" stores is greatly improved, the annual sales will be 20 million, the total sales will be 2 billion, and the gross profit rate will remain unchanged at 20%. After deducting the fixed cost of 654.38 billion yuan, the net profit will reach 300 million yuan; And even if the "I deliver" store sells 20 million orders, the net profit is still 200 million, because it also increases the courier fee of 200 million. In addition, the "I deliver" store found that several kinds of goods were troublesome. One is bulky and low-priced, such as toilet paper; One is heavy, but the price is low, such as rice and Coca-Cola; The other is perishable, such as seafood. The characteristic of * * * is that it is difficult to effectively reduce the delivery cost.

Although the above model is not perfect, it at least shows that when offline distribution reaches a certain scale, the cost may not necessarily be lost to e-commerce, and it may even be more efficient. This is why Wal-Mart's long-term presentation cost is lower than Amazon's.

Some people retort that physical stores also need logistics and distribution. Yes, physical stores also need to deliver goods, but it can be standardized-it can save a lot of money. The transportation cost of a container cannot be the same as that of thousands of individually packaged goods. And there is no "last mile" problem in physical stores. By the way, Suning and JD.COM, idiots like home appliances, have the closest transportation costs to physical stores and e-commerce, so they all have to be delivered to their homes. The premise is that JD.COM must reach the level of Suning's outlets, Suning's physical stores can also be used as warehouses, and JD.COM needs to rent warehouses. JD.COM wants to reduce the logistics cost to the level of Suning. Actually, it's not tricky at all. It can only press goods, build a logistics and warehousing system, and cannot neglect assets. Suning has begun to be super-electricized, turning the store into a super store. Small goods (not delivered to your door), JD.COM has no advantage.

Secondly, in reality, why do people generally think that things online are cheaper than offline?

The key reason is that China's department stores mainly learn from Japanese and Korean department stores, which is the so-called joint venture system. If you ask a question, how many salespeople in department stores are employees of department stores? The answer is probably: no. For example, Nike stores are salesmen employed by Nike regional distributors. The division of a pair of Nike shoes is likely to show the following rules: department stores take 30%, dealers take 30%, and Nike takes 30%. In other words, a pair of Nike shoes with 1 1,000 yuan only needs 1 1,000 yuan.

Why e-commerce is cheap is because e-commerce is directly opened by dealers, saving 30% of department stores. But in the same way, in fact, department stores can also get goods directly from Nike without going through dealers, saving 30% of dealers. This system is called the buyer's system. Most chain department stores in America are made by buyers. The gross profit margin of mainstream department stores such as Macy's can reach 30-40%, while that of domestic department stores is only 20%.

At present, the pioneer department stores represented by Dashang Group (Dashang shares 600694) in China have begun to try the buyer system. Who will die in the future is unknown. Traditional department stores also have a killer weapon, called self-created brands, which are purchased from superior manufacturers and labeled with their own brands. This is the higher realm of the buyer system, and began to establish its own brand. Watsons is a typical example.

Thirdly, there is a serious defect in the cost of e-commerce, that is, the issue of taxation.

Ma Yun boasted that the sales of Shuang 1 1 were1800 million. Have all these sales been paid? If online and offline are treated equally in tax payment, I believe Ma Yun should buy more "computers".

Finally, maybe you should say. If Taobao abandoned the dealer and did it directly with the manufacturer, wouldn't it kill the physical store again? The question is, why do manufacturers have to cooperate with Taobao? In the world of Internet, everyone has the right to go it alone. The best example in reality is Apple. Do you want to buy an iPhone? Don't worry, online and offline are unified prices. Apple stores are located in the most prosperous commercial centers, such as IFC in Hongkong, Fifth Avenue in new york and Wangfujing in Beijing. There is no doubt that the cost is high. Do you want to know whether Apple sells the most products online or offline? I don't think Ma Yun will like this answer.