Why do more and more young people don't want to get married now?

The marriage rate has not started to decline in recent years. If the marriage rate drops in only five years, it's no big deal. It may be a short-term phenomenon caused by the epidemic in recent two years and various reasons in previous years.

However, once the time axis is lengthened a little, we will find a terrible fact-nearly 10 years have passed, and the marriage rate in China has been declining continuously.

According to Zeping's macro research, after the marriage rate peaked in 20 13 years, the total number of registrations began to decline, and almost every year, the media mentioned the phenomenon of the decline in marriage rate and expressed their concerns.

Data from many cities also prove this point, such as the number of marriage registrations in Hefei in recent years:

Similar to Jiangsu, it began to decline rapidly in the past few years, and the decline curve is very obvious.

People who don't get married don't have children, which will affect the fertility rate and all aspects of society. This is a great thing.

The decrease in the total number of marriages in recent years cannot be explained by ordinary special phenomena that only affect a period of time.

After careful study, we discovered the secret of the decline in the number of marriages.

The decline in the marriage rate began when people chose to marry later. Let's look at a set of data. From 2005 to 20 19, the proportion of marriage registration (including remarriage) has changed to some extent (lack of national data in 2020 and 20021year).

Young people start to get married later and later, from the original absolute main force of 20-24 years old to the main force of 25-29 years old, and the age is still rising.

Of course, delaying the age of marriage is not a bad thing. On the one hand, it shows that young people want to get married after they have an economic foundation. On the other hand, it also shows that more people may remarry.

Everything is fine, really, but here's a question: are there fewer young people? According to the truth, the main force of marriage is young people. Why are there fewer people aged 20-24 here?

Let's dig deeper:

According to the results of the census, fewer and fewer people were born after 80s, 90s and 00s, and these people are the main group to get married, so fewer and fewer people are getting married with our naked eyes.

In other words, the total number of marriage registrations has decreased, and the reason for the increase in marriage age is that there are fewer young people.

This actually corresponds to the end of the population generation peak.

198 1- 1990 is the third population age peak in China. When this generation reaches marriageable age, the marriage rate will naturally increase. Most people in this generation are married, and the natural marriage rate has come down.

In the final analysis, whether or not to get married has little external influence, and the fundamental reason is that the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing.

Of course, there is another unavoidable reason: among young people, the gender ratio between men and women is also unbalanced.

The sex ratio at birth in the figure refers to the number of boys born per 100 girl. For example, 1 18.6 means that when 100 girls are born, 1 18.6 boys are born.

Look at the sex ratio of 1982 to 2000. These people are the main people who get married now.

According to 20 10 census data, there are nearly 9 million more men than women after 90, and the sex ratio is more serious after 00, and men are closer than women130 thousand.

During this period, the overall birth population is declining, and the proportion of school-age women is still decreasing. The consequences can be imagined.

The total number of young people has decreased, and there are fewer women among young people. Can the number of people who get married not decrease?

In addition, more and more economically independent women choose to marry later.

From 1990 to now, the total number of sister-in-law relationships has gradually increased, which also shows the independence and economic status of women.

In particular, there are more and more highly educated women. In 20 15 years, the number of unmarried women over the age of 30 increased from1540,000 in 2000 to 5.9 million, among which the unmarried proportion of graduate women over the age of 30 was as high as 1 1%, which was much higher than the 5% of undergraduate and below.

With the independence of women and the continuous improvement of economy, this number should be more by now.

Judging from the population and the ratio of male to female births, it can be predicted that the total number of marriages will continue to decline in the next few years.

Judging from the marriage rate in different cities, there are differences. Although the total number of marriages is declining, there is no need to worry too much. This is a very natural phenomenon. The influence of the population born in that period 20 or 30 years ago on the present is beyond human intervention.

We can only interfere in the back. After 20 15, the sex ratio at birth has begun to decline, and the follow-up is constantly adjusted.

However, the total number of marriages in not every city is declining.

For example, the total number of marriage registrations in Hangzhou 202 1 increased by 2 135 pairs compared with 2020.

This is mainly because Hangzhou took the lead in fighting for people and attracted a large number of young people. With more young people, the total number of natural marriages has greatly increased.

People in small cities are heading for big cities. With the household registration here and settled here, the location of young people's marriage registration has also changed.

Generally speaking, the total number of marriage registrations of young people entering cities will be much higher than those leaving cities. It is even more obvious to compare Hangzhou, a city with population inflow, with a city with population outflow.

In areas with severe aging, the total population of marriageable age will be relatively small. If the long-term outflow of population is added, the number of marriages will inevitably decline. For example, we often mention places where the population flows out, such as Hegang and other third-and fourth-tier cities and counties.

Then, let's look at those areas with a large number of marriage registrations from another angle. These places must be places where young people go for gold, and they are also areas with relatively active economy.

In addition to the most fundamental demographic reasons, there are some secondary reasons. One of the reasons is affected by the epidemic.

In the past two years, affected by the epidemic, it is often inconvenient to travel, and many newcomers have postponed their wedding dates.

In addition, during the epidemic period, young people, as the main force of marriage, often have certain economic pressure, and there is not enough savings for buying a wedding room, bride price, maternity fund after marriage, education expenses, etc., which has an impact on marriage.

Another reason is 202 1 the new cooling-off period for divorce.

If the cooling-off period of divorce is the main reason for the low marriage rate, it must be nonsense, and it is only the main reason that affects the divorce rate.

However, it is precisely because of the existence of the cooling-off period of divorce that many people who want to enter marriage do take a more cautious attitude towards marriage.

The last reason is that young people's attitudes towards marriage have changed and their thoughts are more free.

The new generation of young people pay attention not to get married first, but to struggle in big cities while they are young. For many people, marriage is no longer necessary.

There is really no need to worry about too few people getting married. The lower and lower marriage rate has really aroused social concern. I am worried that the labor force will no longer be sufficient in the future, which will lead to longer working years, and I am still working as old as Japan.

But don't panic. From a global perspective, as long as a country's economy develops well, the marriage rate and fertility rate will inevitably decrease. This is an objective law.

This is because if the economy is to develop, the industry is bound to upgrade. However, industrial upgrading needs more people to receive better education, which objectively prolongs people's years of education, naturally starts to marry late and have children late, and even more people don't get married.

So we can see that the more developed countries, the lower the marriage rate and fertility rate.

For example, the proportion of newly married people per thousand people in the United States has begun to decline year by year. So do Europe and Japan.

This is the inevitable result of economic development, and the rising stage of China's economy will indeed bring about a decline in both the marriage rate and the fertility rate.

At present, the reduction of marriage rate in China is very obvious in developed areas.

For example, in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong, the past marriage rate of these three places ranked the bottom three in the country, and the marriage rate in Beijing was also very low, and the late marriage was very serious.

In underdeveloped areas such as Guizhou, Qinghai and Ningxia, people tend to get married early and the marriage rate will be higher.

This is related to the fast pace, high housing prices, aging and urbanization in developed areas.

Although there are fewer and fewer marriageable young people and young people are getting married earlier and earlier, let's look on the bright side. If we get married at least later, our minds will be more mature, our economy will be more affluent, and we can take on family responsibilities.

At least by the wedding day, these young people must have made all the preparations. Wouldn't that be better?