As the Spring Festival approaches, the price of vegetables tends to rise. What is the price of vegetables in your city?

As the Spring Festival approaches, the price of vegetables tends to rise. What is the price of vegetables in your city? What is the expected price of vegetables for the Spring Festival in 2022? To what extent will the price of Chinese New Year food rise? It is understood that we maintain the view that the pig 03 contract is bearish, and we are cautious about the upward trend of the egg 0 1 contract. It is expected that the price of meat and eggs will accelerate after the Spring Festival and the price of vegetables will decline.

CITIC Jiantou said that vegetables are becoming an important factor affecting the fresh price of agricultural products. "Food is more expensive than meat, so why not eat minced meat" is no longer a joke. Since June this year, the prices of radish, Chinese cabbage, cauliflower, spinach, celery, zucchini, towel gourd, bitter gourd, tomato and eggplant have increased by more than 100%, among which the prices of celery, pumpkin and towel gourd are among the highest, reaching more than 200%.

Vegetables are an important supplement to meat consumption, and sharp price changes have disturbed the prices of eggs and pork. According to the research of CITIC Investment, the catering structure is mainly composed of vegetables, meat, eggs and bean products. In general, we emphasize the reasonable combination of vitamins, fiber and protein. Therefore, vegetables are the main suppliers of vitamins, while eggs, meat and poultry are the main suppliers in protein, and the main purpose of people's consumption is different. However, in China's food culture, the collocation of meat and vegetables is usually emphasized, and the proportion of collocation may be affected by the price on the one hand and the price on the other.

If we observe the changes of egg price index and vegetable price index, we can certainly draw a conclusion that they are highly correlated. According to the actual calculation, the correlation coefficient between them at 202 1 is about 0.4 1, and the correlation is obvious. In a longer time dimension, such as ten years, the correlation between them is only 0. 18, which is a weak correlation.

As food, meat, eggs and vegetables do have a certain substitution relationship, but the long-term correlation is more due to the fluctuation of demand for them.

When seasonal demand is strong, the prices of vegetables, eggs and other products are likely to rise each other, and because the planting cycle of vegetables and the weather they face are different from those of breeding, the rhythm of the supply side is also inconsistent, and finally a relatively weak correlation is formed. Because the correlation between the two is not causal, we haven't regarded vegetable price as the main factor in analyzing eggs and meat for a long time. However, with the increase of vegetable prices, the correlation between the recent obvious increase shows that there is an additional layer of alternative conduction besides the original vibration factor.

Among eggs and pork, vegetables have a more obvious effect on eggs. Eggs are between pure meat and vegetables in catering, and they are the animal proteins closest to the consumption of vegetables. In the past history, we can also find that the price of eggs rose because of the price of vegetables.

It may not be enough for vegetables and pork to replace each other, but the price of pigs has dropped sharply compared with the previous period, and vegetables have risen sharply. The price difference between the two has narrowed rapidly. The low consumption caused by the high price of pigs may need to recover faster when the price of vegetables is stable. However, due to the sharp rise in vegetable prices, the recovery speed will exceed expectations.

Compared with the seasonal price fluctuation of vegetables over the years, the research of CIC Securities believes that vegetable prices have obvious seasonal characteristics due to the influence of natural conditions of production and unbalanced listing. Generally speaking, the centralized listing of vegetables from May to June every year is the lowest point of the overall price of vegetables. From July to September, with the arrival of high temperature and typhoon in the south, the price of vegetables rose gradually.10-1autumn vegetables were on the market in large quantities, and the price continued to fall. From 65438+February, the winter supply of open-field vegetables ended and the seasonal consumption brought by the Spring Festival pushed the vegetable price to the highest level. Then, as the quality of stored vegetables declined and the temperature rose, the supply increased, and the vegetable price fell again.

The trend of vegetable prices before 10 this year is basically the same as that in previous years, but since 10, vegetable prices have ushered in a rapid anti-seasonal increase, and their prices have reached the level of the Spring Festival in previous years.

The main reason for the anti-seasonal trend of vegetable prices this year comes from the rainy weather in the previous period. From the end of September to the beginning of 10, there is more rain in the main vegetable producing areas during this period, and the planting, growth, picking and storage of vegetables are affected to varying degrees. Vegetables are generally listed late, and the yield is poor. This has led to a shortage of vegetables and pushed up the overall price of vegetables.

Generally speaking, the change of supply and demand is the basic reason for the fluctuation of agricultural product prices, and the rapid rise of production cost and circulation cost is the main reason for the continuous rise of agricultural product prices. External shocks such as natural disasters, information asymmetry and food safety incidents are important driving factors for the sudden change of agricultural product prices.

In addition, China's vegetable production is relatively concentrated, among which the vegetable production in the Huang-Huai-Hai, Bohai Rim and Yangtze River basins can account for more than 70% of the country's total, and the unbalanced spatial distribution has also caused great fluctuations in China's vegetable prices.

Separation of production and marketing is an important feature of vegetable market in China. Although the nationwide transportation of northern vegetables to the south can alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand as a whole, the substantial increase in circulation links has also caused a substantial increase in vegetable prices during the period of imbalance between supply and demand. We believe that the circulation cost after the increase of trade links and the poor vegetable harvest in the third quarter of this year are the key reasons for the current round of vegetable price increase.

Can the price increase last? Based on the short-term characteristics of vegetable cultivation, with the cold weather, the supply of vegetables is shifting from north to south, from open-air vegetables to protected vegetables. Vegetable access facilities (greenhouses, greenhouses, etc.). ) will increase the supply of vegetables. Considering that it takes 1-2 months for general vegetables to mature, it is estimated that by mid-June, 1 1, protected vegetables will fill the supply gap caused by autumn vegetables.

Vegetables in protected fields in northern China often need some heating to solve the negative effects caused by low temperature. The heating channels are mainly combustion boilers (raw materials are coal) and hot stoves (raw materials are coal and oil). The price of coal has tripled this year. On the one hand, the sharp increase in heating costs makes some vegetable farmers choose to abandon seeds because of the expected decline in planting income, on the other hand, it actually pushes up the planting cost of protected vegetables, so it is inevitable that the price of protected vegetables will rise.

At the same time, the weather in La Nina is coming again this year. NOAA predicts that La Nina will last for 82% of the time until 65438+ February this year-February next year. The arrival of La Nina means that the probability of cold this winter is greatly increased, and the heating demand of vegetables in protected areas in the north will inevitably rise under cold winter conditions, which will also push up the heating cost of vegetables. Generally speaking, the cost of protected vegetables includes chemical fertilizer and machinery, accounting for about 28%, and it is expected that this cost will rise sharply in the total cost this year.

This year's low temperature and rising energy prices will push up the overall price of vegetables. Therefore, it is expected that there will be limited room for vegetables to fall back in the fourth quarter. We expect that vegetable prices will remain strong in the next three months, and even rise further. But in the medium term, it is still restricted by the agricultural cobweb cycle, and special attention should be paid to the characteristics of short-term vegetable growth. After the Spring Festival next year, vegetable prices face the risk of accelerating decline.

According to the research of CITIC Jiantou, we believe that the sharp increase in the price of meat and eggs in the past two weeks has indeed been boosted by the upward trend of vegetables. The continuous strength of vegetable prices in the next 2-3 months will help to increase the demand for meat and eggs to replace consumption and support this round of meat and eggs rebound. However, we are not optimistic about the long-term upward trend of vegetable prices, and this round of upward trend also indicates a sharp decline in the future, so vegetable prices are not enough to reverse the supply and demand fundamentals of meat and eggs themselves.

In the spot market, the supply side of aquaculture products has the habit of chasing up and killing down. The violent fluctuation of spot leads to futures jumping up and down, and even distorts the long-term expectation of the futures market. Instead, it provides us with better opportunities for trading and hedging. We maintain the view of bearish on the pig 03 contract, and remain cautious about the upward trend of the egg 0 1 contract. It is expected that the price of meat and eggs will accelerate with the price of vegetables after the Spring Festival. Is the above about the price increase of vegetables in the Spring Festival in 2022? I hope it helps you.