What do you think of Guangdong's intention to reorganize Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai?

There are five international airports within 200 square kilometers of the Pearl River Delta, which is the densest in China. The government wants nothing but three things.

1. The provincial government level is the orderly integration of resources. After all, the straight-line distance between the three airports is within100km, so as to avoid overlapping routes, wasting resources and vicious competition.

The local government will definitely not do it. First of all, Shenzhen is unwilling. The airport is a model of local opening, and it is absolutely impossible without autonomy. Secondly, there are economic considerations, and how to distribute it is a big problem. Another is how to plan the route. Central South Air Traffic Control Bureau is located in Guangzhou. In the past, flight scheduling gave priority to Guangzhou. Will the other two brothers be forced to change their routes in Guangzhou in the next year?

3. This integration can be regarded as the integration in the province, and there will be many resources integration in the coming year. In particular, the integrated development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, whether in history or politics, is definitely led by Guangzhou, and other cities need the coordination of the provincial government. Shenzhen is developing well, but it needs to be prioritized, and a game of chess can't last long.

PS。 I have settled in Shenzhen. I don't deny Shenzhen, but it depends on the long-term development and contribution.

Why does Shenzhen object? The answer is simple: Shenzhen Airport will develop better on its own, but being owned by Guangdong Airport Group will only be suppressed, and it will only be more inconvenient for Shenzhen citizens to travel! Isn't that a good reason? Maybe someone will mention other reasons such as freight. Think about those reasons. Are there really reliable reasons? Only Humen Bridge has been built into the world's first bridge in Shenzhen and the vast number of builders in Shenzhen. Every holiday, Shenzhen has to make a detour from westbound to northbound to Guangzhou, and the three-hour drive has turned into thirteen hours of painful memories. Guangzhou is also under the banner of Guangdong province, and it is shameless to make a fortune by the benefits of Guangzhou.

After Guangzhou's development lags behind Shenzhen step by step, many oral sex in Guangzhou are full of truth, but in fact they are full of shame. First of all, what did Guangdong Province give to Shenzhen? The state has given Shenzhen a policy, which has nothing to do with Guangdong Province. The development of Shenzhen is mainly created by national policies and Shenzhen builders. Second, Guangzhou has been sucking blood from the cities below Guangdong for a long time, and Guangzhou has the opportunity to seize it. When the cities below developed, Guangzhou tried its best to suppress it. Third, even in this case, the development of Shenzhen is faster and better than that of Guangzhou. Guangzhou is also worried about the external benefits and attractiveness of Shenzhen to cities in the Pearl River Delta. Worried that Shenzhen will become the core city of the Pearl River Delta and Guangzhou will be marginalized, it can be said that it has been bad for a long time. Therefore, the east-west connection of the Pearl River was destroyed, and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong passage was blocked for more than ten years before it was opened. Humen Bridge has become the first bridge in the world, and the high-speed railway in Guangdong Province has to bypass Guangzhou, so the planning of Shenmao high-speed railway cannot be implemented for a long time. . . The grievances accumulated by various cities in Guangdong against Guangzhou will erupt in NPC once a year, and Guangzhou can be said to be shameless for a long time. If it weren't for Guangzhou's long-term blood-sucking behavior and obstacles, the development of Guangdong Province would be at least a few points faster than it is now. Fourth, over the past decade or so, the fiscal revenue paid by a city in Shenzhen to the central government has been more than that of the whole Guangdong Province for a long time. Shenzhen's rapid industrial upgrading and development and huge spillover effects have promoted the rapid development of Dongguan, Huizhou, Heyuan and other cities. Huawei's terminal and IT headquarters have moved to Dongguan, making Dongguan's industry by going up one flight of stairs. ZTE's factory moved to Heyuan, which greatly boosted Heyuan's GDP and employment. More companies and factories have moved to other places, which has promoted the development of many cities in Guangdong. Many cities have taken the initiative to dock with Shenzhen and develop relations with Shenzhen. On the other hand, in Guangzhou, besides sucking blood to suppress the local city and seize the development opportunities of the local city, there are also boastful and ignorant vampires like me. Fifth, Guangzhou, as the long-term leader of Guangdong, wants to seize the achievements and development opportunities of other cities. The same is true of airport integration, high-speed construction and industrial layout planning. I don't rely on my own ability, I just want to take advantage of everyone and suppress their development. Think about the real performance of Guangzhou in these decades. This is the true face of Guangzhou for decades, and I am shameless.

Explain the relationship between the three airports first. As an insider, it is responsible to say that Shenzhen and Zhuhai airports can't be compared with Guangzhou Airport, and there is no comparative premise, because the former is the gateway hub airport, which is the largest gateway hub in China, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. The latter two are only airports with local guests in Shenzhen and Zhuhai, and the international routes, navigation points and market coverage are not in the same order of magnitude. Although Shenzhen has opened a number of international long-distance routes in recent years with a large subsidy from the Shenzhen Municipal Government, the benefits are really worrying. Many companies even stopped after receiving subsidies, because non-hub airports cannot support long international routes by relying on normal aviation market mechanisms and characteristics.

So can Shenzhen and Zhuhai grow into hub airports? Or is aviation hub equal to GDP? If Shenzhen's GDP exceeds Guangzhou's, Shenzhen Airport will replace Guangzhou as the third largest hub airport in China? Unfortunately, although China's top three aviation hubs in the past are indeed Beishangguang with the same GDP ranking, GDP is not the decisive factor of aviation hubs. The decisive factor lies in the main base airline of the airport. Beishangguang is the three major aviation hubs in China, because it is the headquarters of three major airlines in China: Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. This is consistent with the fact that the three major hubs in the United States are Atlanta, Dallas and Chicago instead of new york, Los Angeles and Chicago, because Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines have their headquarters in Atlanta, Dallas and Chicago. Just like Guangzhou does not have a stock exchange but wants to claim the status of Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the financial center of South China, the spirit is admirable, but the outcome is definitely pessimistic.

Some people may say that Shenzhen has Shenzhen Airlines, but the history of Shenzhen Airlines' fiasco in the competition with China Southern Airlines and its acquisition by Air China is actually the end of the dispute between Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Air China's acquisition of Shenzhen Airlines focuses on the value of high-end passengers in Shenzhen's local market (Shenzhen is better than Guangzhou in this respect) and its strategic containment of China Southern Airlines' Guangzhou hub. This is also the main reason why China Shenzhen Airlines opened international routes in Australia, Southeast Asia instead of Europe and America, because China's three hubs have their own advantages, Air China Beijing is stronger in Europe and America, China Eastern Airlines Shanghai is stronger in Japan and South Korea, and China Southern Airlines is stronger in Australia and Southeast Asia. But this can only be a containment, and it cannot change the status of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Airport. Why?

Because the essence and original intention of hub development is the monopoly of operating resources and market, any aviation market hub in the world is far apart. Generally speaking, the flight interval is at least two hours. For example, in Britain, the aviation hub is always at Heathrow Airport, the headquarters of British Airways. Even though Heathrow Airport is the most expensive in the world, it can overflow to London Gatwick Airport, and it will still be in London, even in the south of Manchester. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are too close, and the traffic is too convenient. Through the marketing policy of Guangzhou-Shenzhen market integration, airlines can achieve this effect through the international long-distance network of Guangzhou hub. Big data (POS customer sales data) also shows that most international tourists in Shenzhen either go north to Guangzhou or south to Hong Kong.

At present, the hub competition in the Pearl River Delta is between Guangzhou and Hong Kong, and Guangzhou hub has basically surpassed Hong Kong except the daily frequency index of navigation points. To change the well-known Matthew effect theory, the stronger it is, the greater the possibility that Guangzhou International Hub will surpass Hong Kong. Its position as an international hub cannot be shaken by Shenzhen, and Zhuhai's local market is limited, which is even more far behind.

Therefore, everyone is not angry about the integration of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Zhuhai Airport, and thinks that Guangzhou Airport will suppress the international development of Shenzhen after integration, which is completely false. In a word, firstly, Guangzhou Airport must develop better than Shenzhen and Zhuhai. It's not who suppresses who, but Guangzhou is the hub with endorsement of China Southern Airlines headquarters. You're not. For example, there is a stock exchange in Shenzhen, but not in Guangzhou. If you are not convinced, you can't do it. The characteristics of civil aviation industry determine the first-Mover advantage of hub development. Does Shenzhen need to build a hub? No way, it's too late. There is Hong Kong in the south and Guangzhou in the north. Wuhan and Zhengzhou are much more likely to become aviation hubs than Shenzhen and Zhuhai. Without it, because there is no aviation hub in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River at this stage, of course, the high-speed rail factor has a great influence, but it has nothing to do with the theme of this article, so it is not listed for the time being; Second, Shenzhen and Zhuhai can develop international routes without being aviation hubs, but this must be based on the local market, such as Phuket and Bangkok, which are popular in Southeast Asia. The local market of hundreds of thousands every year is naturally enough to support direct flights. For other international long-distance routes, there are few local markets, and there is no hub for transit passengers to supplement them. Whoever flies will lose money, and subsidies will save some time, but not for life. Third, the airport is not the airline operator, but the airline. Airport merger is more about the overall planning of operational resources, such as the congestion in the airspace near the airport, which will not affect the route layout of each airport at all.

The insomnia article posted on it

Shenzhen Airport was first selected in Deep Bay, which is now the High-tech South Zone of Shenzhen University. At that time, no one could have predicted that Shenzhen had developed to such a scale in more than 30 years. At that time, there were different views on choosing Baoan as the airport. They think it's too far from downtown (Luohu) and closer to Dongguan. Now it seems that this site selection is correct. From the perspective of Greater Bay Area, Baoan Airport is located in the core of Greater Bay Area.

On the other hand, there are two sites for the new Baiyun Airport, one was rejected in Panyu, and the new airport was built in the northern mountainous area.

As we all know, the effective or reasonable service radius of an airport is about 50~60 kilometers. If you draw a 50-kilometer circle around Shenzhen Airport, it includes Shenzhen, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Panyu and Huizhou.

If you draw a 50-kilometer circle around Guangzhou Airport, it will include Guangzhou and 70% of the mountainous areas. I won't explain anymore!

Resolutely opposed. The development speed of Shenzhen is faster than that of Guangzhou, so we should support fast cities to run faster and stay ahead of Tokyo and new york. Guangzhou knows how to bully his brother when he is incompetent. Gross! Guangzhou is afraid of Shenzhen's big airport strategy, so it suppresses Shenzhen, a typical Indian Sam.

Guangzhou Baiyun Airport is too far away from Shenzhen, and it is not connected with high-speed railway station like Shanghai Hongqiao, forming a seamless connection between air and rail. Therefore, even if all the international flights of Shenzhen Airport are grounded, it will not help to attract Shenzhen residents to take international flights at Baiyun Airport. Shenzhen residents will have less time to go to Hong Kong Airport. So how can we increase the income of Guangdong Airport Group? It is not impossible for Shenzhen Airport to be controlled by Guangdong Province. I just hope that the holding group will not ignore the market demand and do things that harm others and benefit themselves.

Guangzhou is the capital, political and commercial center of Guangdong Province. Shenzhen is the sub-provincial capital and the center of finance, service industry, IT, science and technology and shipping. There are many foreign friends, and there are many foreigners traveling to and from Shenzhen for business. It is unreasonable to close the international air routes in Shenzhen. The distance from Guangzhou to Shenzhen is about120km. If Guangzhou's international routes are closed, it is very reasonable for Guangzhou people to go to Shenzhen by international routes, which can share the pressure of some provincial capital cities in Guangzhou.

If Shenzhen Airport can't remain independent, I agree with the integration plan of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Airport. Shenzhen Airport and Hong Kong Airport are integrated into Shenzhen-Hong Kong Airport Group, with Hong Kong taking all international routes and Shenzhen taking all domestic routes. Check-in between the two airports, baggage check-in is completed in one stop, that is to say, after checking baggage at Shenzhen airport, you can board the plane directly at Hong Kong airport; Or conversely, from Dallas to the auditorium, if the connecting flight from Hong Kong to Shenzhen is a domestic route, the checked baggage will be directly transferred to the corresponding flight at the airport. A direct intercity railway will be built between Shenzhen and Hong Kong airports, with a speed of 200 kilometers per hour and a transfer in 20 minutes. Shenzhen-Hong Kong single inspection, if you go through the exit formalities in Shenzhen, you don't need to enter and leave from Hong Kong airport (already possible); International transit passengers can go through the entry formalities directly at Shenzhen Airport. The abandonment of all international routes by Shenzhen and all inland routes by Hong Kong can greatly promote the high integration between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, while Shenzhen can fully develop its domestic route network, covering every first, second and third tier city.

Shenzhen is a special zone of the country and a sub-center of the national economy except Shanghai. Guangzhou and Zhuhai are still in Guangdong province, so it is a joke to give up the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in Shenzhen. Shenzhen will be a unique team, gathering talents and resources from all over the country. The integration consideration should be centered on Shenzhen, not Guangdong and Guangzhou.