Is the precipitation probability forecast in weather forecast scientific?

From an objective point of view, weather probability forecast is a relatively complete information, which reveals the forecaster's true grasp of the forecast results without reservation, but it brings problems in understanding, acceptance and use.

This may be an intractable contradiction: if the weather forecast simply says "it will rain tomorrow" or "it won't rain tomorrow", it is easy for the public to understand, but this description is actually inaccurate and incomplete; However, when the weather forecast tries to describe tomorrow's precipitation more strictly as precipitation probability, many people don't understand what this means.

There is a joke on the internet that the meteorological department wants to tell the truth most, but it is always inaccurate. Although it is fun, combined with the experience of weather probability forecast, it can be inferred that meteorologists are really willing to tell the truth, but after some truths are told, no one wants to listen. Popular or rigorous? This is a realistic problem reflected by weather probability forecast.

In a word, two concepts:

In fact, there are two concepts in the term precipitation probability.

One refers to the historical climate precipitation probability of a certain place, which is the result of statistical calculation and analysis based on historical climate data.

Secondly, in the weather forecast, forecasters rely on all kinds of knowledge, information and skills to analyze the future weather, and then judge the possibility of precipitation in a certain period, which is expressed by precipitation probability value, which is also commonly known as weather probability forecast.

The values of these two probability values range from 0% to 100%, but their meanings are different and their generation methods are different. Climate probability is an objective statistical value calculated according to historical data. As long as the data interval is determined, the result is unique.

The result of weather probability forecast is uncertain, and different forecasters may get different probability forecast values, and the influencing factors include data, technology, knowledge, methods and experience.

In these two concepts, the familiar "precipitation probability" comes from weather probability forecast. The appearance of this kind of forecast has greatly changed the release form of weather forecast, from "all-or-nothing" to "all-or-nothing" and from deterministic forecast to uncertain forecast. However, the effect of this prediction in China is not ideal.

China People and Central People's Government-Meteorological Science: What does "precipitation probability forecast" mean?