Since 2002! The probability of promotion has soared by 70%. Can the Clippers really stage an epic comeback?

In the whole league, in the matter of "creating suspense", the Clippers said the second, and no one said the first. They can be beaten 0-2 at home, but they can also get back two games away. It took the Clippers only five days to turn this series from tragedy to mystery.

The Clippers' promotion probability increased from 6.3% to 76.2%.

The second game of the series was lost, and the clippers had flooded their necks. The boatman said, "Son, of all the boats, you chose mine. My boat is notoriously fast. " Tang Bohu was happy with his eyes, but he found that the boat was sinking, so he exclaimed, "Hey, hey, your boat is sinking."

The boatman calmly replied, "I told you, it sank quickly."

Looking at the first two games alone, the clippers really sank fast enough. They can't find many ways to face the lone ranger at all, and the historical probability seems to indicate that the prospect of the Clippers is not optimistic.

Before this season, the total score of 0-2 occurred 426 times, and the team behind the other team was successfully reversed 27 times and eliminated 399 times. The probability of promotion is only 6.3%. Under the best-of-seven system, the 0-2 leading team was eliminated 297 times and advanced to 2 1 time, with a reversal probability of only 6.6%.

After winning Game 3, the Clippers are still in danger. If they lose the fourth game, the team will fall behind by 1-3. In the history of NBA, there have been 260 times that the team behind has fallen behind by 1-3, and the team behind has only advanced by 13, and has been eliminated 247 times. The probability of a successful breakthrough is only 5.

However, the Clippers didn't let this happen. After two innings, the probability is basically reversed. Because 1984 adopts the current NBA playoff system, the team with home court advantage is promoted to 129 times and eliminated, with a promotion rate of 76.2%. In the first round, 223 of the 289 teams with home court advantage advanced, with a success rate of 77.2%.

In the away game, the Clippers not only regained their home advantage, but also hoped to create a historical reversal and go down in history.

Since the merger of NBA and ABA in 1976-77 season, 32 teams have fallen behind 0-2 at home before, and only 4 teams can finally complete the reversal. They are the grandson of 1993 (reversing the Lakers), the rocket of 1994 (reversing the sun), the lone ranger of 2005 (reversing the rocket), and the Celtics of 20 17.

Looking back on these four "miracles", three of them were influenced by "external forces". Sun 1993 reversed the Lakers and came back midway, winning the second scoring point and consecutive players for the team. In 2005, the healthy Yao Mai led the team to a 2-0 lead in the away game, but the lone ranger boss mark cuban put pressure on the league to crack down on Yao Ming's illegal cover. The referee succeeded in stealing the play in that series and played a special role in the reversal process.

In the 20 17 season, the Bulls led the Green Army 2-0 in the first two games, but Rondo, the star of the team, was injured in the third game, which led to an essential reversal of the series. The Celtics won four games in a row and finally won.

In contrast, the rocket of 1994 is different. They finally made a comeback by adjusting their tactics. In the first two games, Olajuwon was besieged by his opponent at a critical moment, which led to the collapse of the rocket attack. From the third game, Hugh changed his strategy, no longer stubbornly handed the ball to his dream, but activated the outside line. "Madman" Maxwell scored 3 1 at half-time, which changed the war situation and turned the "suffocating city" into a "resilient city".

The Clippers were able to pull two games in a row, which was related to the neck injury of Dansis, the core of the lone ranger, but more importantly, director Lu's tactical adjustment grabbed the opponent's throat and became a turning point in the series.

From 0-2 to 2-2! What did Director Lu do right?

As the saying goes, "failure is the mother of success". Only by finding the problem can we effectively solve it. In the first two games, the Clippers failed because the lineup could not match their opponents at both ends of the offense and defense.

In these two games, the Clippers sent the starting lineup of Beverly, paul george, Leonard, Morris Jr. and Zubac. The wonder of this lineup is that there is a drag on both ends of the offense and defense. Zubac is often named by Dancsics and other small guards when defending pick-and-roll, becoming a mobile cash machine. After the injury, Beverly's defense became worse and the offensive end was useless. Putting him on the court is equivalent to 4-5.

In the 23-minute cooperation, this starter can only get 90.9 points every 100 rounds, but he loses as many points as 142.2 points every 100 rounds.

In the third game, Director Lu adjusted his starting line and replaced Beverly with Reggie. However, due to Ibaka's injury, Tyrone Lu started Zubac from a conservative perspective. But unexpectedly, Dansis stormed Zubac from the beginning, leaving Clippers 19 points behind.

This season, Zubac and Dancis played together for 45 minutes, the Clippers scored 87 points, lost 122 points and lost 35 points. In these 45 minutes, Dansis scored 52 points on 20 of 32 shots, and his shooting percentage was as high as 62.5%, among which 18 made 9 three-pointers and shot 50% from outside.

However, when either Dancis or Zubac sat off the court or neither of them was present, the Clippers scored 255 points, lost 226 points and won 29 points in the remaining 99 minutes.

This bleak ending made Director Lu finally understand a truth-Zubac would never be sent when there was Dancsics present.

After being beaten in the opening game of the third game, Lu coached Zubac, replaced him with batum, and let Morris play the center. Because the lone ranger was in full swing at that time, this lineup did not receive immediate results on the court.

The team really began to have a chemical reaction, which is the second change of Lu. He replaced both Rondo and Mann. Rondo is good at controlling the rhythm and combing the attack. Mann is young, energetic and strong in impact. This squad is paired with Maurice, batum and paul george. In the second half of the second quarter, he played a 20-2 opponent. During this period, the Clippers protected all seven defensive rebounds, among which Mamba and Rondo each grabbed three rebounds. At the same time, the Clippers did not make mistakes during this period. Rondo is an experienced court administrator. With him present, George can concentrate on completing the attack without being responsible for organizing.

This "pure five small lineup" has changed the Clippers from passive to active. In the second half, Director Lu changed the array again and directly replaced Zubac with batum. The clippers' "five tactics" have been continued and consolidated. With 8: 06 left in the third quarter, Leonard found batum and assisted him to complete a dunk to help the Clippers lead 76-75. Since then, they have never fallen behind.

G3 is of great significance to the Clippers. They not only saved a game, but also found the key to Pandora's box. As the saying goes, after changing into a small lineup, the Clippers' offensive space has suddenly widened, and the team's tactical choices can become more. They can kill the basket through the perimeter, or they can attract the attack through the breakthrough and give the perimeter three points. In the last 5 minutes of the third game, 19 seconds, Clippers 18-8 attack, Little Moss hit a three-pointer, and personally scored more than the lone ranger.

The lone ranger is not an internally supported team. After reducing the proportion of back-to-back singles, Borzingis is more like a power forward, which makes the Clippers' small lineup not be punished too much in the penalty area. The flexibility of the small lineup allows them to radiate the defensive center of gravity to the outside line, which not only can better defend Dansis, but also can reduce the outside hit rate of the lone ranger.

In Game 4, the Clippers had no reservations. They sent Morris, batum, Kajiao and Reggie directly to meet their opponents with bayonets. Dansis was trapped in a shoulder injury, and the role player of the lone ranger lost his rhythm under the outside defense of the other side. In the first three games, they hit 55 three-pointers, with a hit rate as high as 50.5%, but in the fourth game, they were alone.

The three-pointers in the first three games of the Lone Ranger were unreasonably good, and the fourth game was unusually poor, which was due to the poor performance of the players and the change of the Clippers lineup.

When Carlisle sent a secret "nuclear weapon" like Majanovic on the court, it meant that he lost a game of chess. Facing the clippers' five small lineup, the lone ranger has not found an effective solution.

Who can laugh at the battle of Tianwangshan?

After the 2-2 draw, the next battle of Tianwangshan will become particularly crucial. In the history of NBA, the team that won Tianwangshan has an 83% probability of promotion.

After winning two games in a row, the momentum returned to the Clippers. There is an old saying: "One puff of smoke, then decay, three puffs of exhaust." The lone ranger may regret it. With a 30- 1 1 lead in the third game, they failed to win the game with all their strength, but gave their opponents a chance to breathe. In the series, any slack may cost the team an unexpected price.

When the Clippers found their own winning mode and style of play, it was not easy for the lone ranger to stage a good show of "charging from the front" again. From the beginning of the series, I was not afraid to wear shoes barefoot. Dancsics' playing style and the feel of the role-player are constantly on the line, which is the key for the lone ranger to get ahead.

But from the third game, the idea of the lone ranger suddenly increased. Maybe they think this round of competition is too easy, or maybe the team has begun to consider a bright future. A lone ranger without distractions can create surprises. Once they increase their thoughts, the psychological burden will follow. After being caught up with the score in the last game, the lone ranger's morale has dropped. In the fourth game, when he couldn't take the initiative at first, the lone ranger lost his mood and didn't respond when he needed to respond.

What is even more worrying is Dansis's neck injury. He is playing in an extremely uncomfortable way at present. Injury greatly affected Dansis's shooting. After every goal, Dansis's face will show a painful expression. When shooting feels bad, Dansis can only use more breakthroughs to kill. His unstable free throw feel makes the Clippers willing to foul him. It is more cost-effective to let dancers walk to the free throw line than to shoot from outside and middle distance.

The lone ranger's question is, when Dansis is injured, who will stand up, Porzingis or Hardaway Jr.

After winning two games in a row, the Clippers are winning, and they will continue to use this winning rotation system. The only uncertainty is whether the Clippers' psychology will change again after their two-game winning streak. Winning mourning for soldiers is not a joke, nor is it a joke to die in the heat.

As for whether the suspense drama can eventually become a comedy? The final answer still depends on the clippers themselves.