Brokerage joke

A few days ago, Guolian Securities and Guo Jin Securities both officially announced that at this point, Guolian Securities, which has only been listed for 50 days, will annex Guo Jin Securities. This merger caused an uproar in the securities industry. After reading a lot of interpretations of the market, it is actually over-interpreted to say that building an aircraft carrier-level brokerage firm. I think it's more a way of life for small brokers.

In 20 19, the combined profit of Guolian and Guo Jin was18.2 billion, which was less than that of CITIC Securities17. Before the suspension of trading, the total market value of the two companies added up to only 1000 billion, which is still far from the first brokerage company, which is even worse for the operator-level brokerage company. However, although the current valuation of Guolian Securities is significantly higher than that of the same industry, it is still expected to improve after the resumption of mergers and acquisitions. After all, after the reorganization, the advantages between the two will be brought into play, especially in investment banking.

Based on the current market sentiment, it may rise by about 40% after the resumption of trading. At this time, the valuation is about 654.38+03 billion, but it is still one level lower than CITIC. Therefore, although the merger is good, it is still out of reach to become an aircraft carrier-level brokerage. Therefore, the real carrier class still depends on CITIC Brothers. After the merger of the two guys, the market value is directly 800 billion. In addition, the market will give more valuations, and the market value will break through 10,000 just around the corner. Personally, I think this is the word "aircraft carrier".

Therefore, the fundamental reason is the gradual enhancement of Matthew effect in financial industry in recent years, the evolution and change of competition pattern, and the change and update of regulatory policies. The merger and integration of the securities industry is facing historical opportunities. The merger of brokerage firms happens to be an active cooperation under the background of supervision encouraging the brokerage industry to become bigger and stronger, which is a great advantage for the brokerage industry, especially for small and medium-sized brokers. For small brokers, survival is their first demand. After the last bull market, the money-making effect of the market has long been worse than before, and the situation of stock trading by the whole people has never appeared again. Small brokers who rely on brokerage business to survive are facing the problem of survival difficulties.

In addition, it is not easy for small brokers to survive because they have to face the competitive pressure brought by big brokers. Reorganization and merger can make up for each other's shortcomings in business and broaden the moat for themselves. The M&A road just makes up for the crisis brought by the industry competition pattern. On the whole, China's securities industry is undergoing a transformation from policy-oriented mergers and acquisitions to market-oriented mergers and acquisitions.

At present, the real prediction of aircraft carrier-level brokers has been clarified almost every time. At least for now, rumors are just rumors.

However, if the recent merger rumors are simply regarded as forced to survive, it is not entirely true.

In recent years, with the development of the market and the relaxation of brokerage licenses, brokers of all sizes have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, but it has also brought about various chaos such as non-compliant operation, and many large mergers have also appeared in the process of rectification. Compliance is the most important thing in the business development of securities companies. Recently, Dai Jiechun, the compliance director of the League of Nations, has 0/7 years of working experience in CSRC/KLOC.

Besides compliance, is there any need for reorganization and merger? First look at the overall situation of brokers. How many brokers do we have now? There are currently 120 securities companies in China. Because securities companies are not state-owned, the biggest problem here is that there are many but not strong, and the strongest CITIC Securities cannot get the international market. But our market is now the second in the world. At the same time, this year, the CSRC liberalized the ratio of foreign shares. You know, some foreign brokers, such as Schwab, don't charge fees, and the competition in the industry has intensified. This is the reason for building a brokerage aircraft carrier. Think about it, it is a joke to outsiders that no broker can sell in such a big market.

Generally speaking, the merger of the two securities firms conforms to this trend in form, unlike the previous merger, which was caused by problems in the merged company. At that time, the merger was to solve the problem. Now the merger really wants to be bigger and stronger, and the premise of being bigger and stronger is to survive. At present, some people have started, and I believe that more and more small and medium-sized brokers will take the shortcut of mergers and acquisitions in the future. At the same time, the merger will also bring stories to the merger of securities firms. Our market likes telling stories best, such as ants merging with Oriental Fortune, CITIC Securities merging with CITIC Jiantou and so on. There will be more and more rumors, and the popularity of brokers will continue to rise.

Generally speaking, this M&A is the general trend, which has made a good start for the theme of big finance. Not surprisingly, in the future financial market development, more and more small brokers will merge together to become star brokers, making the market more and more stable and perfect!