Suppressing the price of lithium has become a joke.

The price war in the automobile market is lively, and the market situation of battery raw materials, especially lithium carbonate, fluctuates accordingly. Obviously, the relationship between the two is not a simple causal relationship, but an interactive relationship throughout the entire industrial chain.

Looking back, many car companies cried for land on the grounds that the price of lithium carbonate soared, and turned their heads to pass on the extra costs to consumers. Now the price of lithium carbonate has plummeted and the price war has been superimposed. Are new energy car companies willing to adjust prices again?

In fact, reducing costs and increasing efficiency has always been the key to the development of industrial manufacturing, especially the automobile industry. It is for this reason that the automobile industry relies heavily on economies of scale. Tesla can ride the dust in the new energy vehicle market, relying on scale.

Simply put, the larger the scale, the lower the sharing cost, so Tesla has room to cut prices again and again.

From the perspective of development, whether Wei Xiaoli, Xiaomi or Du Ji, as long as the new car-making forces develop well in the future, they all need to go through a stage similar to Tesla's price reduction. Unfortunately, when the horn of the price war sounded, everything became involuntary.

To be fair, the thorny issue now lies in the weakening of consumer demand. Without price reduction, car companies will have no market share. Without market share, it is difficult to form a scale. Without scale, it is difficult to share costs and reduce prices. The less car companies cut prices, the less the market will be. This cycle will only get worse.

On the other hand, as the core raw material of power battery, the cost and price of lithium carbonate have been falling all the way, which can be said to be one of the few good news in the automobile industry this year. At least from the cost of making cars, the cost of each car can be saved by 3,000 yuan for every drop of 65,438+10,000/ton of lithium carbonate.

Then the problem is coming. Are car companies really willing to cut prices and release water?

Collision between cycle and trend

Obviously, the raw materials of power batteries headed by lithium carbonate are entering the down cycle; The development process of the new energy vehicle market has also come to a key node.

The collision between the two will not only affect the upstream raw material suppliers, but also promote the change of the whole automobile industry pattern.

In people's impression, apart from BYD and Tesla, I am afraid that only new forces like Wei Xiaoli can be regarded as new energy vehicle brands.

The reason is that before the price war this year, there was a marketing war in the automobile market, and propaganda slogans such as "the best domestic SUV within 5 million" and "the best SUV within 500,000" emerged one after another. With the great momentum of last year, Wei Xiaoli was able to gradually stand on the cusp of public opinion.

However, with the advent of the post-epidemic era, the concept of consumers began to change dramatically. Different from the cost performance expected by consumers, new energy car companies headed by Wei Xiaoli still adhere to the "high-end" label.

This is to be a high-end, new energy vehicle market below 200,000. Who will dominate everything?

Undoubtedly, the cliff-like decline in the price of lithium carbonate has brought opportunities for the transformation of traditional car companies.

Different from traditional fuel vehicles, the three-electric system of new energy vehicles is the main threshold, and the cost of power batteries accounts for a larger proportion. As the price of lithium carbonate drops, the cost of power battery will inevitably drop. Traditional car companies can take this opportunity to further get rid of the shackles of power batteries and focus on the design and experience that users have widely criticized.

At the low-end market level, although BYD's influence is inevitable, new energy vehicles below 200,000, including hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles, are still a blue ocean market. As it happens, people's demand for this price segment is also stronger.

The same price of oil and electricity will not be the end. With the further exploitation of lithium carbonate and the cost sharing of scale advantage, trams will be cheaper than tankers. By then, the "new forces" under the traditional automobile brands will have more advantages than the helpless "new forces" in the price war.

10.2 million C6 tells us that there are no cars that can't be sold, only inappropriate prices. Aside from the damage to the brand image, there is actually only one way for many new forces to build cars, such as Zero Run and Nezha. ...

Zooming into the whole industrial chain, there is a recent saying about the "dilemma of the new energy industrial chain": iron phosphate is waiting for the iron-lithium factory to place an order, the iron-lithium factory is waiting for the battery factory to place an order, the battery factory is waiting for the car factory to place an order, and the car factory pays for the price reduction, but the consumers are all in the new energy stocks.

Such an absurd scene illustrates most industry facts. It is no exaggeration to say that the price of lithium carbonate plummeted this time, which incited the entire automobile industry chain and even promoted the popularization of new energy vehicles.

So, what's next?

The turning point battle between oil tanker and tram

As Li, chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Industry, said, yesterday, the lithium salt was 600,000 yuan a ton, and tomorrow it may be 65,438+10,000 yuan a ton.

With the falling price of lithium carbonate, the "lithium mine rebate" plan of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. must have lost its appeal. Correspondingly, upstream raw material suppliers have to eat yesterday's cause and effect and take high risks under high returns.

And those small and medium-sized manufacturers who hoard and stand guard at high positions can only face the risk of bankruptcy alone.

According to informed sources, the capacity utilization rate of a leading power battery in China has seriously declined, and the operating rate is around 40%. And in the first two months, the operating rate of top battery factories was not high. Even the upstream suppliers of anode and cathode materials and electrolyte are facing the problem of overcapacity.

Please note that today's market is not the once prosperous market. Since 2023, a series of negative factors have followed, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, the post-epidemic era, the US interest rate hike and geopolitics. In the turbulent environment, the whole automobile industry has been under heavy pressure.

On the one hand, the automobile industry needs to undertake the great task of economic recovery and maintaining growth; On the other hand, consumers who have just stepped out of the epidemic have tightened their consumption demand, and both tankers and trams are facing the embarrassment of reduced demand and orders.

At this time, March is about to pass, and the fuel vehicle subsidy price reduction war initiated by Wuhan Citroen will also come to an end temporarily. Whether the market trend will become more involuted or calm is still unknown. But what is certain is that after this war, the share of new energy vehicles will be more and more upward.

According to the data of the Federation, although the sales volume of passenger cars rebounded in February, both the retail volume and the wholesale volume have fallen sharply year-on-year, with the highest drop approaching 19%.

According to the data of the Federation, under such a downward trend, the penetration rate and sales volume of new energy vehicles have soared against the trend. Although BYD has made great contributions, it can also see the market development trend.

Coincidentally, Li Xiang also issued a similar forecast, claiming that by 2025, the proportion of new energy passenger cars will reach more than 70%.

There has been a lot of controversy about new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, such as mileage anxiety, charging anxiety, high cost of power batteries, etc ... However, the general trend is irreversible and the times are pushing the whole automobile industry forward.

It is not difficult to foresee that in the next few days, more and more new energy vehicle companies will gradually form a scale advantage and then occupy enough market share.

They may be new forces struggling in the front line, or they may be "new forces" hatched by traditional brands, but they are definitely not "die-hard" who pretend to sleep and turn a blind eye to new energy.

In fact, the collapse of lithium carbonate gave new energy vehicles the confidence to formally attack fuel vehicles. Although the whole new energy automobile industry has fallen into the dilemma of price war, only after several times of blood and fire, survival and death can the genuine products be smelted.

Now that the stage is set up, let's wait for the major brands BLACKPINK to show their skills.

This article comes from the author's automobile commune, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.