2020 Final Season丨Diversified efforts in the new energy vehicle market

With the overall recovery of the domestic auto market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have also regained their vitality. Compared with the dominance of joint venture brands in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, except for Tesla, a foreign brand, independent brand new energy vehicles and new power brands are the "mainstay" in the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market today.

According to data from the Passenger Car Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in September were 136,000 and 138,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 48 and 67.7 respectively, setting a new record for September. Among them, pure electric wholesale sales were 102,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 105%. Looking at the segmented models, state-owned brands occupy nine of the top ten new energy models in terms of sales.

After reviewing the performance of the new energy vehicle terminal market in the first three quarters, it is not difficult to find that there are three factors: strong growth at both high-end and low-end models, rapid development of domestic new power brands, and intensified differentiation of new energy performance among large groups. The major characteristics are becoming increasingly clear, and the new energy vehicle market is showing the characteristics of diversified development. According to the analysis of Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, as Beijing adds 20,000 licenses, new electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles continue to improve their cost performance, it is expected that the domestic new energy vehicle market will usher in a period of full-scale growth in the fourth quarter.

"Dumbbell" growth at both high and low ends

Entering the third quarter, the adjustment of the domestic new energy vehicle market structure has become more obvious. On the one hand, high-end new energy brands led by Tesla Model 3 are still in a strong leading position; on the other hand, the A00-level entry-level pure electric models are experiencing explosive sales due to their lower prices. On the whole, it shows a "dumbbell"-shaped structure, and consumption is mainly divided into the low-end market and the mid-to-high-end market.

September new energy passenger vehicle sales data show that SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD and Tesla China ranked the top three new energy vehicle companies with wholesale sales of 24,386 vehicles, 19,048 vehicles and 11,329 vehicles respectively. .

Among them, SAIC-GM-Wuling’s A00-class pure electric model Hongguang MINI EV has sold 14,495 units, far behind Tesla Model 3, not only reaching the top of the single-model sales volume of new energy vehicles The championship also drove the sales of the A00-class pure electric vehicle segment to 32,500 in September, a year-on-year increase of 140, and its market share in the pure electric market also increased to 32%. This indicates that the A00-class pure electric vehicle market is gradually developing and has huge potential.

Data show that in the first seven months of this year, the market share of A00-class electric vehicles was only 13. In the past two months, with the launch of Hongguang MINI EV in August, it has brought the market share of this segment back to a high of 32.

At the other end of the new energy consumption market, Tesla Model 3 still ranks first among high-end new energy models with monthly sales of 11,329 units, and cumulative sales from January to September reached 79,929 units. Industry analysts say Tesla's strong performance in China is enough to show that compared with high-end intelligent experience, price is no longer the first consideration for some consumers. Therefore, under the general trend of consumption upgrading, high-end models will still serve as an important battlefield for future domestic new energy vehicle competition.

It is worth noting that in early October, Tesla announced that the price of the standard range Model 3 would be reduced from more than 270,000 yuan to less than 250,000 yuan, which significantly stimulated the market. Cui Dongshu recently said that Tesla's entry price dropped to 250,000 yuan is expected, and Model 3 will maintain a very high cost performance for a period of time. The industry predicts that Tesla may continue to cut prices in the future. In this case, the domestic new energy vehicle market will also show a new pattern of escalating competition between Tesla and domestic brands.

The performance of new forces is booming

As expected in the industry, in the first three quarters of 2020, the epidemic intensified the reshuffle of new car-making companies. On the one hand, bottom players such as Bojun and Sailin have been eliminated, and the list is still growing; on the other hand, the first-tier players headed by Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal met successfully at the New York Stock Exchange .

In addition, the operating conditions of the second car-making echelon, such as Tianji, WM, and Hezhong, which have achieved market delivery and are actively preparing for IPOs, are gradually improving. It should be said that the development of new domestic car-making forces has generally entered a relatively mature stage of steady growth. , new power car companies are gradually becoming important participants in the domestic new energy market.

The latest September sales data shows that the market share of new power car companies in the sales of pure electric vehicles reached 16. Among them, the four leading car companies, represented by NIO, Xpeng, Ideal and WM Motor, achieved a total sales volume of 13,797 vehicles, achieving a record of exceeding 10,000 units in a single month for the first time.

As the "leader" of new domestic forces, NIO currently ranks first among new forces in China in terms of delivery volume with its three mass-produced models, ES6, EC6, and ES8. According to the latest sales data, Weilai *** delivered 4,708 new cars in September, a year-on-year increase of 133.2, achieving positive year-on-year growth for 7 consecutive months. A total of 26,375 vehicles were delivered in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 113.7. At the same time, as the sales leader, ES6 is also a frequent visitor to the domestic luxury high-end SUV sales list, helping the brand gradually establish a high-end image.

Li Auto, which has been delivered for less than ten months, sold 3,504 new cars in September and 8,660 in the third quarter. A total of 18,160 cars were delivered from January to September, making it a dark horse in sales. In addition, with the IPO of Li Auto on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of July this year, the operation of the entire enterprise has begun to improve. According to Li Auto, as of the end of September, Li Auto has 35 retail centers across the country, covering 30 cities. In the fourth quarter of this year, Li Auto’s retail centers will further cover blank provinces and continue to deepen its coverage in already covered provinces and municipalities.

Also active is Xpeng Motors. Since the large-scale delivery of its new model Xpeng P7 in late June, sales have been rising steadily. Sales in September reached 2,573 units, achieving steady growth for three consecutive months. This drove Xpeng's delivery volume in September to 3,478 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 145%. In addition, one month after being listed on the New York Stock Exchange in September, Xpeng Motors' second factory was officially laid in Guangzhou Development Zone, forming a "Guangzhou Zhaoqing" intelligent manufacturing dual-engine layout, which provides a strong guarantee for the company's next development.

The performance divergence of new energy among large groups has intensified

In the first half of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for B-end operating vehicles has dropped significantly, and the new energy vehicle consumer market has also begun to shift from the policy promotion stage to the The market-driven development stage accelerates transformation. In this process, the performance of the new energy sector under large domestic groups has begun to accelerate polarization. In the past few years, the A-class new energy vehicles dominated by many traditional car companies such as BYD and BAIC have gradually faded, while GAC New Energy Aian New products led by series and Great Wall Euler Cat series have begun to dominate.

Public information shows that GAC New Energy produced and sold 7,006 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 75%; sales from January to September were 38,000 units, and cumulative sales increased by 75% year-on-year, ranking fourth among electric vehicle manufacturers. In terms of segmentation, Aion?S and Aion?V, the two main models of the Aion series, both won the championship in the market segment. Among them, Aion?S, as an A-class pure electric sedan, was squeezed by the strong growth of both high and low in this segment. Despite the decline, it still ranked second in new energy vehicle sales with cumulative sales of 30,515 units in the first three quarters.

In sharp contrast, BAIC New Energy's decline in the A-class pure electric sedan market is even more obvious. According to data released by BAIC Blue Valley, in September, BAIC New Energy's monthly sales were 2,245 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 77.57%; from January to September, BAIC New Energy's cumulative sales were 21,086 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 78.57%. What is even more noteworthy is that its output in September was only 221 units, a year-on-year decrease of 56.99. This shows that manufacturers are gradually losing confidence in the EU series, the former new energy sales champion.

BYD is in a similar situation.

Due to the gradual shrinking of demand for mid- to low-end new energy vehicles in the B-end travel market, BYD sold a total of 19,881 new energy vehicles in September. Although its single-month sales achieved a year-on-year increase of 45.32%, its overall sales of new energy vehicles were at In the first three quarters, there was still a sharp decline of 42.4% year-on-year. Key new energy models such as Qin, Qin Pro, and Yuan, which were popular in the early stage, all experienced declines of varying magnitudes.

However, one thing that is different about BYD is that as the competitiveness of its low-end models has declined, BYD has gradually gained a foothold in the mid-to-high-end market. BYD Han equipped with blade batteries has hit new highs in sales since its launch in July, with sales reaching 5,612 units in September. In addition, the new BYD Song PLUS EV, Tang EV, Qin, Qin Pro, D1, Yuan and other key models equipped with blade batteries have also been announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and are expected to be launched or delivered in the fourth quarter. The launch of new cars will undoubtedly boost the sales growth of BYD's new energy vehicle segment.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.