Tesla greetings slogan

Author: Cheng Tianqi, editor: Wang Rui.

Core point of view:

1, in order to seek further growth of the stock price, we must make a breakthrough in sales;

2. In the process of sales growth, word-of-mouth damage and competition have formed resistance to the increase;

3. In 2020, when the epidemic is shrouded, Tesla's sales volume is still expected to increase by 65,438+05%-20% against the trend.

Tesla's share price took off again.

On July 1 1, Beijing time, Tesla's share price soared 10.8% to 1544.7 USD, and its market value rose to 286.33 billion USD, far exceeding that of Toyota (1728.4 billion USD), firmly occupying the throne of the world's first car company with market value.

Stable car sales are the core driving force for Tesla's soaring share price.

On July 2nd, Tesla released the data for the second quarter of 2020: 82,000 new cars were produced and 9 1 1,000 new cars were delivered. Which model? 3 and model? Y is the main force, delivering more than 80,000 vehicles. Combined with the first quarter data, Tesla has delivered1790,000 vehicles in the first half of the year.

Tesla's sales greatly exceeded expectations.

Under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the global auto industry is crying. Previously, IHS? Markit once predicted that global car sales will drop by 22% in 2020. Based on this, it is expected that major research institutions will be conservative about Tesla's sales in the first half of the year. Previously, Deutsche Bank's Tesla Q2 sales were estimated at 76,000 units.

Now it seems that analysts underestimated Tesla.

"Tesla's sales growth is likely to continue in the second half of the year," industry insiders told Yiou Automobile. Tesla solved the problem of production capacity through localization, and its competitiveness also improved significantly after the price dropped. "Global sales are far ahead."

So, how many cars can Tesla sell with a sales target of 500,000 in 2020?

Tesla eats soft and eats hard

Product strength is the underlying guarantee for car companies' sales, and Tesla has established technical barriers.

Hardware is the foundation of Tesla. In the early days, Tesla's autopilot hardware used NVIDIA chips. Not willing to be controlled by others, Tesla began the road of self-research.

2065438+On April 23rd, 2009, Tesla introduced the fully automatic driving hardware (FSD) equipped with self-developed automobile AI chip, namely Autopilot hardware version 3.0. Musk said that FSD hardware is enough to support "fully automatic driving", and in the future, car owners only need to update the software to improve the level of automatic driving.

"Soft and hard" is Tesla's winning way.

Andre, director of Tesla's artificial intelligence and autonomous driving vision? Capassi said that Tesla's AI software can process lane lines, traffic, pedestrians and other information collected from vision sensors, and make corresponding decisions by matching these information with known objects.

In the V6.0 system software released on 20 14, Tesla added Chinese maps and navigation. In the newly released V 10.2, Tesla has achieved the most comprehensive consumer-grade autonomous driving in China.

As the first car company to upgrade OTA in cars, Tesla has realized the continuous appreciation of car value. Tesla, which combines software and hardware technologies, not only led the wave of electrification transformation in the global automobile industry, but also captured a large number of loyal fans.

In addition, Tesla is constantly improving the problem of "difficult adjustment". In addition to sports cars, Tesla's four mass-produced passenger cars currently on the market cover B-class cars, C-class cars and SUVs.

In 2008, Tesla released Roadster, a two-door convertible electric sports car, to establish a high-end brand image. Subsequent release of the model? S and Model? X is also aimed at high-income people, and the imported version is priced at 765,000-865,000 yuan and 786,5438+0-88, 1 000 yuan respectively.

Since 20 17, affordable electric vehicles have been launched? Since the 3rd, Tesla has been insisting on "exchanging prices for the market".

At present, the domestic version of the car? The subsidy price of 3% has been as low as 27 1.550 yuan. 20 18 "quantity model" model since the third quarter? 3/Y sales significantly exceed more expensive models? S/X .

Sales growth helped its profits turn positive.

Being a model? When the sales volume reached about 80,000 vehicles in the third quarter, Tesla also achieved a positive net profit. By Q 1 in 2020, Tesla has been profitable for three consecutive quarters. In view of the fact that the total delivery volume of Q2 this year exceeds that of the previous quarter, Tesla will continue to maintain quarterly profit with a high probability, which is no longer far from the annual profit.

Tesla, which can go deep underground, be "cold" and "close to the people" and realize self-hematopoiesis, will carry out the "price reduction by quantity" with great probability, and its sales prospects are improving.

Consumers' enthusiasm for Tesla continues to rise, and Tesla is also expanding its production capacity to meet demand.

China saved Tesla?

Guangpu production capacity laid the foundation for Tesla's sales growth.

In 20 10, Tesla bought the ownership of the fremont factory from Toyota for $42 million, and delivered the first model two years later. s .

At that time, Toyota couldn't think that it was not only a factory, but also the crown of the next automobile era.

On October 20 19 1 month, Tesla Giga Shanghai officially started construction. At the end of the same year, "Made? Are you online? A model of China? 3 official delivery. Surprisingly, a year later, Shanghai Super Factory became Tesla's "life-saving straw".

Affected by the epidemic, the factory in fremont was shut down for nearly 50 days in the first half of 2020. Although Musk restarted the factory in May at the risk of being arrested, the production capacity of the factory in fremont was still far less than that before the epidemic.

The China market, which was the first to recover from the epidemic, saved Tesla, and abundant production capacity also provided Tesla with a sales base.

Tesla Shanghai factory resumed work as early as February 10. What is its model? It can produce 200,000 vehicles in three years. In the meantime, models? The construction of Y production plant is also progressing steadily. Tao Lin, global vice president of Tesla, said that the Shanghai factory is expected to mass-produce Model in the first quarter of 20021year. y .

Not only did Tesla expand its army in China, but it also continued to "expand its territory" with confidence in sales growth.

In June this year, Tesla started construction in a super factory in Berlin, Germany. Unlike the Shanghai factory, the Berlin factory is from Model? Y, plan to model before July 20021year? Y drove off the production line. Previously, Tesla, Britain and Brazil also had "anecdotes" about building factories, and their tentacles are reaching out to the world.

The times make heroes, and Tesla's success is inseparable from the global trend of car electrification.

In 20 15, the global sales volume of new energy passenger cars was only 410.9 million, and it has increased to 22 1 10,000 in 20 19, a fivefold increase in five years. China Commercial Industry Research Institute predicts that in 2025, the global sales of new energy passenger cars will reach 1 1.5 million.

Tesla is far ahead.

In the first five months of 2020, Tesla sold a total of 65,438+028,000 cars, 2.6 times that of the second BMW. According to the model, Tesla model? In the first five months, the cumulative sales volume was as high as 10.6 million, which was four times that of the second Renault Zoe.

But Tesla is not invulnerable, and sales growth has both motivation and resistance.

Tesla's sales bottleneck

"The only dissatisfaction with Tesla is the price reduction." An import payment bought in June 20 19? 3% of the owners said.

It is understood that the domestic version of Model? Compared with the previous imported version, the price difference is tens of thousands, but the configuration is basically the same. "I have seen imported models on the road? The shopkeeper posted the slogan "including import tax". " The owner said that Tesla's early car owners "had a hard time" on the issue of price reduction.

The price of Tesla may drop further. In June 2020, domestic models? The lithium ferrous phosphate version appeared in the catalogue of new energy vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Essence Securities estimates that the gross profit margin will be flat after the replacement of lithium iron phosphate battery and domestic parts. The price of the basic version may be reduced to 2 1.7 to 227,000 yuan.

What makes the old car owners sad is not only Tesla's "willful" price cuts, but also the "door" incidents that broke out one after another.

In June 2020, business? Insiders reported that Tesla discovered Model as early as 20 12. S's battery cooling device design problem may cause short circuit or even fire, but Tesla turned a blind eye to this matter. Tesla declined to comment on this, and the repair time of this design defect is still unknown.

It never rains but it pours. Recently, models? ■ Frequent complaints about media control unit failures. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration of the United States evaluated the models produced from 20 12 to 20 15. S touch screen launched an investigation, which is expected to involve 63,000 cars.

Earlier in March, Tesla was exposed to the "reduction door". Domestic models with new cars? The owner found that the version of the new car controller is the old version of HW2.5, not HW3.0 on the on-board environmental protection list.

Although Tesla has repeatedly said that "the supply chain is tight during the epidemic, it is helpless to deliver the car with the old version", but this cannot cover up the performance disadvantage of the old model. In the United States, Tesla cars equipped with new chips have been able to recognize traffic lights, ground signs and even trash cans, while the old version is "not enough".

The damage of word of mouth will eventually be reflected in the sales volume, and Tesla's sales prospects will be cast a shadow.

Eager rivals are a big obstacle to Tesla's sales growth.

Tesla's current sales mainly come from models? 3. The price range of the latter in official website is 38,000 to 55,000 dollars. Among the top 20 global sales of new energy vehicles in the first five months of 2020, eight pure electric vehicles belong to similar price ranges-all Model? A strong opponent of 3.

Renault Zoe sold a total of 27,000 vehicles in the first five months, second only to Model? 3。 Sales in the European market account for 99% of its total sales, while Model? It did not even squeeze into the list of the top 20 new energy passenger cars in Europe.

Hyundai Kona's sales performance ranks third in the global new energy vehicle market. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative sales volume reached 654.38+0.5 million, and the performance in North America, Europe and South Korea was good.

In the electric vehicle market in China, what can best compete with Model? 3 arm wrestling is Weilai ES6. In the first five months, * * * sold nearly 65,438+00,000 cars.

Unwilling to take sides, Weilai is burning wars all over the world. Peter, vice president of Weilai Europe, said in September 2065438+2009: "Weilai models are bound to enter the European market."

In addition to the old rivals, in the second half of 2020, all major car companies around the world will have new electric vehicles listed one after another: BMW pure electric SUV? IX3 will be released online on July 14, Munich time; Audi electric coupe SUV? Electronic creation? Sportback will be listed in summer and introduced to China at the end of the year; Mazda's first pure electric vehicle MX-30 will be launched in autumn, and the starting price in the UK is expected to be 30,000 pounds. ......

Tesla model? Can you handle it?

"Tesla cannot monopolize the global electric vehicle market, even if it is a very powerful car company." Industry insiders told Yiou Automobile.

The European market's favor for small cars won Renault Zoe；; China's "SUV power" attribute is not conducive to the model? 3 sales growth; The global universality of Hyundai Kona is also difficult for Tesla to learn from ... Tesla needs to pin its hopes on the automobile market environment if it wants to seek sales growth.

Can the sales target be achieved?

Judging from the current environment, Tesla is in a difficult situation, but still "can fight".

On July 2, 2020, the number of newly confirmed cases in COVID-19 has been around 220,000 for four consecutive days. The main countries are the United States, Brazil and India, all of which are big consumers of automobiles. Although the measures of home isolation have been basically liberalized in various places, the epidemic situation is still the biggest obstacle to automobile consumption.

Fortunately, as a luxury brand, Tesla's target user group is less affected. Take China as an example. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 65,438+0,654,000, down 6.2% year-on-year, while the growth rate of luxury brands in the same period was as high as 27%. Among them, domestic models? Its sales are nearly 654.38+0.5 million vehicles, accounting for 23% of the pure electric vehicle market.

Tesla does not need to worry about production capacity at present. Among them, the combined production capacity of the two major factories in the United States reached 690,000 vehicles, which is close to its accumulated annual sales in the past three years, avoiding the embarrassing situation of "supply in short supply".

Judging from the previous sales growth, Tesla's sales prospects in 2020 are not bleak, and sales in the second half of the year will still be a big opportunity.

However, under the influence of epidemic situation, competitors and word of mouth, Yiou Automobile predicts that Tesla's annual global sales will increase by 65,438+05%-20% compared with last year's 368,000 vehicles, reaching 420,000-440,000 vehicles. This figure is slightly lower than Tesla's annual sales target of 500,000 vehicles, but the traditional rivals that have fallen sharply have stood out.

One year can't explain all the problems, and Tesla, the "dark horse", will become more and more eye-catching in the next few years.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.