Positive signals are frequent, and the real estate industry is expected to continue to improve.

Affordable rental housing loans were not included in the centralized management of real estate loans, and the housing provident fund loan policies in many places were adjusted, and the housing credit in 5438+ 10 achieved a "good start" ... At the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, the previous policies gradually took effect, and new policies were introduced one after another, prompting the real estate market to continue to improve. Experts predict that the real estate market in China will remain generally stable this year, and the growth rate of real estate investment will probably bottom out in the first half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be between 1%-2%.

Warm policies and continuous improvement of real estate financing.

Whether it is stable credit or wide credit, real estate credit is an unavoidable link. Under the policy goal of "maintaining the steady growth of the total amount of money and credit", since this year, the financing environment of the real estate industry has been continuously improved and the policy level has been continuously optimized. Experts said that the improvement of the financing environment of the real estate industry is conducive to preventing and resolving the liquidity risks of the industry and has positive significance for stabilizing the growth of total credit.

On June 5438+ 10, the real estate loan achieved a "good start", indicating that the effect of previous policy optimization began to appear. China securities journal reporter learned from the financial management department and a number of banks that the real estate loans increased by about 600 billion yuan in June 5438+ 10, and the scale of increase was further increased on the basis of the growth in the fourth quarter of last year, which was about 300 billion yuan more than the average monthly level in the fourth quarter of last year, of which real estate development loans increased by about 200 billion yuan and personal housing loans increased by about 654.38+000 billion yuan.

At the same time, in the direct financing channel, many real estate enterprises have successfully registered or issued bonds recently, and financial institutions have supported the reasonable capital demand of the real estate industry through various channels. "Meeting the reasonable capital needs of real estate enterprises is conducive to alleviating the financial pressure of enterprises and resolving financial risks." Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Cinda Securities, said.

Not only that, the regulatory authorities continue to release signals to meet the reasonable capital needs of real estate. The People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have recently made it clear that loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the centralized management of real estate loans, and banking financial institutions are encouraged to increase their support for the development of affordable rental housing in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risks and sustainable business. Industry insiders predict that with the optimization and adjustment of some regulatory policies, especially the further improvement of the financing situation of housing enterprises, the real estate market will gradually stabilize at the bottom, that is, a "soft landing".

Prevent and resolve risks and clear positions in an orderly manner.

In addition to guiding financial institutions to meet the reasonable capital needs of the real estate industry, the regulatory authorities have also strengthened the prevention and resolution of liquidity risks of real estate enterprises, and relevant measures have further stabilized and boosted the expectations of the real estate industry.

At present, the liquidity problem of individual venture real estate enterprises is being properly handled, and the risk clearing is being carried out in an orderly manner. It is generally believed in the industry that individual problems in the real estate industry will not lead to systemic risks, and the risk spillover is within the controllable range. Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, said recently that the structural adjustment of the real estate market is conducive to the formation of a new development model of real estate, which is conducive to a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.

Asset management companies can participate in solving the debt problem of real estate enterprises. The industry believes that the introduction of professional institutions for the disposal of non-performing assets is expected to accelerate the progress of asset disposal of risk housing enterprises and promote risk resolution and market clearing.

China has favorable conditions for the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry. In fact, the new urbanization continues to advance, and the rigid demand for housing and improved demand are expected to continue to be released. RealData shows that the transaction area of commercial housing in 66 national key cities in June+10 in May 438 was17110,000 square meters, which was close to 20 18 years, 20 19 years and the same period in 2020.

For the short-term challenges and long-term prospects faced by the industry, the views of the industry also tend to be rational, forming a * * * knowledge.

Highlight the word "stability" and promote transformation and development

The Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2022, economic work should strive for progress steadily. For the real estate industry, "stability" is also a prominent requirement, and realizing the stable and healthy development of the industry is very important for the economy and people's livelihood. Experts believe that to serve the overall situation of steady growth, the relationship between volume and price in the subsequent real estate market will be more prominent. It is expected that the regulatory authorities will continue to improve the long-term mechanism of real estate, deepen the reform of the housing system and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. "Real estate growth usually plays a pulling role in economic growth." Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that the added value of the real estate industry in 20021year increased by 5.2% over the previous year, driving the overall economic growth by 0.4 percentage points. The added value of the construction industry increased by 2. 1%, driving the overall economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that personal housing mortgage loans will be further accelerated this year, and development loans for high-quality real estate enterprises will be restored to a reasonable growth state, supporting the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry. In addition, some researchers predict that the data of real estate industry is expected to pick up in the middle of the year, and the growth rate of real estate investment in the whole year is expected to be between 1%-2%, which is expected to reduce the adverse impact on economic operation.

At the same time, we should see that the transformation and development of the real estate industry is progressing steadily, and a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and rent and purchase is being built. The national conference on housing and urban and rural construction held at the beginning of the year pointed out that the supply of affordable rental housing will be greatly increased in 2022. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently revealed that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 40 key cities initially planned to add 6.5 million sets (rooms), which is expected to help/kloc-0.3 million new citizens and young people alleviate their housing difficulties. The industry believes that the regulatory authorities will continue to improve the long-term real estate mechanism of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the city's policy.

Although it is hard, it is difficult to blow out crazy sand when it is not golden. Real estate is the pillar industry of China's economic operation, and housing is the consumption of residents. Realizing the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry is not only a policy orientation, but also an industry expectation, which is completely possible. Of course, reform, development, transformation and upgrading are difficult to achieve overnight. In this process, it is inevitable to encounter storms and bumps. Real estate enterprises should rethink and seriously evaluate their own business model, reduce leverage and debt accumulation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the industry as masters.