Investment strategy for the Year of the Pig: 4 city samples provide a glimpse into the property market trend

Shenzhen Property Market in 2019: Stability is the top priority

Every year after the Spring Festival, it is a sensitive period for the Shenzhen property market: whether it is regulatory policies, housing prices or rents, there are some variables . At present, the market generally believes that the main policy tone of housing housing not for speculation and city-specific policies will not be substantially reversed in 2019. Against this background, as a first-tier city, what will be the trend of the real estate market in Shenzhen in 2019?

For many Shenzhen home buyers, they should be impressed by the small promotion climax that occurred in the property market at the end of last year. At that time, major developers launched a "100-meter sprint" with discounts, free decorations, down payment installments and other activities. In particular, new projects outside the original special economic zones such as Pingshan and Longgang became the main promotion force. However, at the beginning of this year, there were many reports in the market that some real estate companies were preparing to raise prices for their projects. In the end, the relevant companies denied it. However, rumors of promotions and price increases still make homebuyers uncertain: Are housing prices in Shenzhen going up or down?

He Qianru, director of Midland Realty National Research Center, said that the previous real estate policy adjustments in many cities were still an isolated phenomenon, which was more due to the fact that the previous policies in these cities were too tight or were no longer suitable for the current market. caused by the environment. For the Shenzhen market, no substantial impact has occurred. 2019 may be a year of bottoming out, and some regulatory policies may be relaxed, but not all at once.

Xu Feng, development research director of the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, said that from the perspective of real estate policy, she believes that the Shenzhen market has basically no chance to relax and will maintain strict control. If you are an investor, it is recommended to be cautious. If you invest for a long time, you can give due consideration to location factors and the quality and value of the property. It is worth mentioning that there may be a big breakthrough in the rental market policies in 2019, and more policies to regulate the development of the rental market will be introduced.

Chengdu: New housing market, supply and demand reversed

The scenery of the property market is like the waves of the sea, sometimes violent and sometimes flat.

To break down the beginning of this round of Chengdu’s real estate market, it begins in October 2016. Since then, Chengdu’s housing prices have started to rise unilaterally and continuously, and “sexual intercourse” has once trapped the city. . At the end of 2017, Chengdu entered a new era of lottery to buy a house. The hot real estate market has made the winning rate of new houses in the lottery as low as single digits. At one time, 70,000 people rushed to buy thousands of houses, and the queue to buy a house stretched for several kilometers.

When things go to extremes, they must be reversed. Chengdu issued a real "5·15" new purchase restriction policy, which alleviated the crazy and disorderly local property market. There are not many low-priced new homes left for everyone. A reporter from the Securities Times noticed that 2019 will be the cash-out period for the high-priced land auctioned the year before. A large number of new homes acquired at high prices will be put on the market, and the entry price of new homes will naturally rise further. By then, the incremental market is expected to return in 2019, home buyers will need to be more rational, and the importance of location will be further highlighted.

A reporter from the Securities Times noticed that compared with the previous purchase restriction policy, Chengdu’s new property market regulation adjusted the purchase restrictions to households, and included social security for more than 12 months as a necessary condition for home purchase, and continued to implement regional purchase restrictions. policy. With the introduction of the "5.15" new purchase restriction policy, Chengdu's property market ushered in a key market turning point in 2018, showing a situation of being hot at first and then cold at the same time.

“After the implementation of the new property market purchase restriction policy on '5·15', the supply and demand relationship in Chengdu's new home market has reversed." Zhang Jian, director of the Chengdu branch of Shell Research Institute, said that after the restriction on the purchase of two homes, qualified customers suddenly However, developers with tight capital chains concentrated on launching projects to increase supply in the second half of the year. The relationship between market supply and demand reversed, and the new home market is unlikely to be as hot as it was in early 2018.

In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times, Zhang Jian further pointed out that the supply of new homes in Chengdu has increased significantly, and the winning rate of new homes in the lottery has continued to rise, which has broadened customers' choices and slowed down the pace of second-hand home transactions. As a result, second-hand owners were forced to sell at reduced prices under this situation. Chengdu's property market gradually entered a long-lost buyer's market, and residential properties gradually returned to residential properties.

It is worth noting that the "5·15" New Deal changed the purchase restrictions from individuals to families. The surplus house tickets in the hands of short-term investors evaporated overnight. The proportion of investment in second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu was from 9 dropped to 3.2. Furthermore, investors turned their attention to the apartment market with no purchase restrictions, and the new apartment market was once hot. However, in the second half of 2018, as a large number of new homes entered the market and apartment prices climbed to higher levels, the investment spillover effects gradually receded, and apartment transactions peaked and fell.

Haikou’s real estate market cools down and developers “go eastward”

In the past year, Hainan’s housing prices have attracted the attention of countless people. With housing prices soaring, regulatory policies have also been stepped up. Haikou has become a In the provincial capital city of Hainan, what is the current situation of the property market and what trend will it develop in the future? During the Spring Festival, a reporter from Securities Times went to Haikou to investigate the trends behind Haikou’s housing prices.

Before the Spring Festival holiday, a reporter from the Securities Times visited many real estate properties in Haikou as a home buyer and found that some real estate properties and intermediary companies had already gone on holiday in advance. During the Spring Festival, affected by the previous government policies such as purchase restrictions and price restrictions, the transaction volume of new homes in Haikou declined year-on-year.

The average price of second-hand houses in better locations in Haikou ranges from 16,000 yuan/square meter to 23,000 yuan/square meter. New properties located in the suburbs, due to imperfect supporting facilities, are priced around 17,000 yuan/square meter. Floating, some properties have price reductions and promotions, and some properties have illegally "delayed contract signing" with home buyers in order to circumvent the purchase restriction policy. Affected by the Hainan Free Trade Port policy, developers have accelerated their deployment in Jiangdong New Area.

Starting from the Hainan Provincial Government, go east along the Qiongzhou Bridge and cross the Nandu River. You can reach Haikou Jiangdong New District in about 30 minutes. Jiangdong New Area, with a total area of ??approximately 298 square kilometers, is positioned as a major initiative by the Hainan Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government to build Hainan Free Trade Zone and Free Trade Port.

From a geographical perspective, the current real estate development in Haikou has also begun to show an "eastward" trend. In the future, investment in Haikou will also show an eastward trend. Jiangdong New District has become an investment destination for major real estate developers. important area. A reporter from the Securities Times learned that the Haikou Wanda Cultural Tourism City project taken over by Sunac in 2017 is also located in Jiangdong New District.

A real estate person told a reporter from the Securities Times that the west coast of Haikou has been almost fully developed and there are very few new properties. Except for Luneng Hailan Mansion and the West Coast Xinghua Coast City, which has a large number of properties for sale, most of the properties are for sale. All sold out. There is no new land development in downtown Haikou. Only a few new properties on Haidian Island have a large number of houses for sale, and there are not many new properties available for purchase. With the favorable policies of the Hainan Free Trade Port, it is the future development trend for developers to gather in Jiangdong New Area.

House prices in Benxi are tepid

During the Spring Festival, the mountain city of Benxi is very cold in spring, with the lowest temperature approaching minus 20 degrees. There are many people setting off firecrackers, playing on the ice, and shopping in shopping malls. There is a strong New Year atmosphere everywhere, but the property market seems particularly deserted. Almost all second-hand housing agencies and new home sales offices are closed for the holidays. There is only one person on duty in some properties, and no one is interested in the sales office.

A reporter from the Securities Times learned from various investigations that in the past two years, the Benxi property market has seen significant differentiation in transactions. Except for a few new projects and second-hand houses in school districts that are more popular, most new projects and second-hand houses have not sold satisfactorily. There are not many people buying houses, and there are also very few newly developed properties. Since 2018, only three commercial housing projects in the city have obtained certification and opened in phases. Among them, "European City" is recognized as the best-selling project in Benxi in recent years.

Evergrande Oasis is located in the upper reaches of the Taizi River. It is the only real estate with decoration in Benxi. The current average transaction price is 6,500 yuan/square meter. When it opened in 2012, it sold well, but there are still a few existing houses. However, less than half of the more than 200 suites in the two buildings launched in March 2018 have been sold. Five sets of special-priced houses were launched at the beginning of this year, with a maximum discount of 290,000, but none of them have been sold so far, and the discounts have been extended to February. However, regarding the reason for the slow sales of the project, Ms. Liu, the salesperson on duty, explained: “We mainly sell the park environment, properties and quality, unlike city and school district projects that are based on volume.

"In addition, there are still a small number of existing houses for sale in Greenland Central Plaza, which was launched in 2011. In the commercial projects along the river, which was launched in 2014, only a few merchants can be seen, and most of the other areas are vacant.

Although overall, the average house price in Benxi has increased, but the increase is not significant. New houses can see a slight increase in price, while second-hand houses have a downward trend, especially those in non-school districts and in remote locations. The downward trend in housing prices is obvious.

During the investigation and interview by Securities Times reporters, whether they are new property sales staff or second-hand housing agents, whether they are people who have lived in Benxi for a long time or Benxi people working outside, She said that Benxi real estate is not suitable for investment. She suggested that if you want to invest, you should consider going to Shenyang. Benxi has not invested in real estate speculation in the past few years. Ms. Li, a Benxi native who works in Shenyang, gave three very valid reasons for not investing in buying a house in Benxi. Representative: First, the economic situation is not good, house prices cannot rise, and investment is not necessary; second, if they do not go back to work, there is no need to buy a house; third, the elderly have a house in Benxi, but they have to take it to themselves in the end, and the house in Benxi has to be sold. , there is no reason to buy a house again.