What changes have occurred in China before and after the Olympics?

The 2008 Olympic Games is a rare historical opportunity for Beijing, which has accelerated Beijing's economic development. This can be reflected in the changes in the relative relationship between the economic growth of Beijing and Shanghai before and after the successful bid for the Olympic Games in 2000. From 1994 to 1999, Beijing's GDP growth rate was lower than Shanghai's except for a few years, but from 2000 to 2006, it tended to be higher than Shanghai's. However, what will be the economic development trend of Beijing after the Olympic Games? According to the author's observation and understanding, the economic development after the Beijing Olympics can be summarized into five major trends.

Trend One: Sustained Rapid Growth

The investment multiplier effect is the main factor driving Beijing’s economic growth in preparation for the Olympics. After the Olympics, this effect apparently no longer existed. Can Beijing's economy still maintain its rapid growth trend? The answer is yes.

First of all, the growth of domestic and international service “export” will accelerate after the Beijing Olympics. First, my country is in a stage of economic development driven by increasing returns to scale. In the long term in the future, if the increase in primary product scarcity remains below the productivity increase brought about by increasing returns to scale, and if the gap in wealth distribution remains within the socially acceptable range, China's economy will grow steadily and continuously. Beijing is an economy dominated by the service industry. The above-mentioned development trends of my country's economy will surely expand the demand for Beijing's services, thereby driving the accelerated growth of its domestic and international "exports"; secondly, it will be driven by the multiplier effect of the Olympic Games' service exports. The Olympic effect will not disappear with the closing of the Olympic Games. Judging from international experience, because the Olympic Games have left more or less legacy to the host city, it has enhanced the host city's ability to export services such as domestic and foreign tourism, exhibitions and sports events, which will promote the hosting of the Games about three years after the Games. The city’s domestic and foreign export trade grew. Since the Olympic Games have left Beijing with abundant service capabilities, the multiplier effect of the Olympic Games' service output is even more prominent.

Secondly, investment will still maintain rapid growth. After the Olympic Games, Beijing's economic construction will undergo two important changes. The first is to further adjust the relationship between the construction of "central cities, new transportation and new towns", and while continuing to accelerate the construction of new transportation, comprehensively launch the construction of key new cities and accelerate the pace of new town construction; the second is to continue to focus on promoting high-tech industries, While the financial industry and cultural and creative industries are developing, we will further rely on high-end industrial functional zones and new cities to focus on promoting the development of producer services and social services, forming high-tech industries, financial and producer services, and social services. , the industrial development pattern driven by the "four poles" of cultural and creative industries. These adjustments will strongly support the continued rapid growth of investment after the Olympic Games.

Third, consumption growth tends to accelerate. First, because Beijing’s per capita GDP has exceeded US$6,000 and the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents has dropped to 30%, Beijing has entered a developmental and hedonic consumption growth stage in which the income of urban and rural residents has accelerated, their consumption power has increased rapidly, and their consumption structure has rapidly upgraded; second, The employment, labor relations and income distribution systems are further streamlined, which is conducive to improving the income distribution structure and expanding consumption; third, with the acceleration of social security construction and the continuous improvement of the scope and level of security, residents' consumption confidence has increased and their consumption tendency has increased; fourth, It is the Olympic Games that will enhance citizens’ willingness to develop consumption, especially sports and fitness consumption.

Trend 2: Further shift to innovation-driven

For a region, the ways to obtain competitive advantage are nothing more than cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Beijing's competitive advantage cannot be mainly based on low cost. On the one hand, although compared with major international cities in the world such as New York, Tokyo, and London, the prices of production factors such as labor, land, and environmental services available in Beijing are relatively low. However, domestically, Beijing is the region with the highest factor prices and is at a disadvantage. status; on the other hand, although heavy and chemical industrialization is still an important direction for national economic development, Beijing has entered the post-industrialization period, and the service industry has accounted for more than 70% of all economic activities. In terms of utilizing the internal economies of scale of large-scale industrial production to obtain low costs At a comparative disadvantage. In this case, the main way for Beijing to gain competitive advantage can only be through product and service differentiation, and the source of differentiation lies in innovation. That is to say, in order to gain competitive advantage under the conditions of market-oriented globalization, Beijing's economy inherently requires a further shift to innovation-driven development.

The key elements of innovation drive are CSF, namely Creativity - the ability to generate new feasible ideas, Speed ??- the speed of bringing new ideas to market, Flexibility - —Adaptability to market changes. Beijing has the strongest ability to generate new ideas in the country, is also a region that markets new ideas quickly and is highly adaptable to market changes. It has obvious advantages in pursuing an innovation-driven and differentiated development path.

In order to promote the development of an innovation-driven economy, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government published the "Opinions on Enhancing Independent Innovation Capabilities and Building an Innovative City" and "On Vigorously Promoting the Learning-oriented City in the Capital" in 2006 and 2007 respectively. "Decision on Urban Construction" clearly stated that Beijing would be initially built into an innovative city and a capital of learning in 2010. These arrangements will strongly support Beijing's economy to further shift to an innovation-driven economy after the Olympics.

Trend 3: The service economy will reach a new level

Since the 1990s, Beijing’s service industry has experienced three important leaps: in 1995, the proportion of the added value of the service industry in GDP exceeded 50%, Beijing has initially entered the era of "service economy"; since 2003, the added value of Beijing's service industry has exceeded that of all cities in my country, becoming the largest service industry center in the country; in 2006, the added value of Beijing's service industry accounted for 70.9% of GDP , equivalent to the average level of high-income countries and regions.

After the Olympics, five new favorable factors will push Beijing's service industry to a new level. First, the service industry has further become a new growth point for the national economy; second, building a harmonious society is the best area, which will further leverage the advantages of Beijing's social undertakings and make the "social economy" a new bright spot in the capital's economy; third, the Olympic legacy is enhanced It has improved Beijing’s tourism, sports, culture, exhibition and other service capabilities; fourth, Beijing’s international city will begin to enter the basic completion stage, and the economy that produces global control capabilities - the headquarters economy will further become a trend; fifth, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Government are stepping up efforts to formulate Opinions on promoting the development of Beijing’s modern service industry.

The author believes that Beijing's service industry will reach a new level after the Olympic Games in five aspects: "reforming the system, adjusting the structure, optimizing the layout, increasing efficiency, and increasing the scale." Reforming the system means that Beijing will gradually establish rules and regulations for the service industry that are "fair competition, open and orderly, and globally integrated"; adjusting the structure means that it will adapt to the requirements of a national capital, an international city, a famous cultural city, and a livable city, and develop comprehensively in the service industry. On the basis of this, we will focus on promoting the development of financial and productive services, cultural creativity and social services; the optimal layout is to combine the location requirements of different service industries or service value-added activities with the advantages of each place to achieve an optimized layout of the service industry within the city and promote The north and south cities, the central city and the suburbs, urban and rural areas develop in a coordinated manner; increasing efficiency means improving labor productivity through improving the quality of workers, service technology and innovation. At present, the personnel output rate of Beijing's service industry units is only that of Hong Kong and Singapore in the same period. About 1/5 to 1/4, improving labor productivity is the central task of making Beijing's service industry bigger and stronger; increasing the scale means further expanding the absolute scale of the service industry and increasing the proportion of the service industry in GDP.

Trend No. 4: Further shift to dual multi-center network development

From a spatial perspective, Beijing’s economy will further exhibit a two-level multi-center network development trend.

The first is the multi-center network development pattern of the economy within Beijing. Beijing’s “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” proposes to focus on the construction of six high-end industrial functional zones: Zhongguancun Science and Technology Park, Beijing Financial Street, Beijing Central Business District, Olympic Central District, Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, and Shunyi Airport Economic Zone. In 2006, the added value of the six high-end industrial functional zones accounted for about 38% of the city's GDP, becoming an important growth center driving Beijing's economic development. According to Beijing's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", after the Olympic Games, Beijing will fully launch the construction of three key new cities - Tongzhou, Shunyi and Yizhuang to accelerate the development of new cities. At present, the planning preparation of three key new towns has been completed, and the preliminary work of the project is being carried out at a fast pace. Work on accelerating the development of eight other new towns is also in progress. New urban development will surely promote the further multi-center network development of the economy within Beijing.

The second is the development trend of multi-center network of the economy in the capital area.

The national "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" included Tianjin Binhai New Area and Hebei Caofeidian Circular Economy Industry Demonstration Zone into the country's overall strategic development layout, and compiled the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area Comprehensive Plan". According to the plan, the capital circle will have Beijing as the main core and Tianjin as the sub-core, with Beijing-Langfang-Tianjin-Binhai New Area as the main development axis, Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang and Beijing-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao as the two major development sub-axes. Caofeidian-Binhai New Area-Cangzhou-Huanghua Port is a dense belt of coastal towns, with Zhangjiakou and Chengde as the growth poles of northern Hebei, a new international metropolitan area. At present, Beijing is actively participating in this process through market mechanisms, cooperation mechanisms, mutual aid mechanisms and support mechanisms in transportation, water resources and ecology, energy, industry, tourism, science and technology, education, culture, health, market systems and other aspects. The construction of an international metropolis. It is foreseeable that after the Olympic Games, the economic development trend of the multi-center network capital region with Beijing as the core will become more prominent.

Trend Five: Further Transformation to a Circular Economy

With the transformation of growth patterns, optimization of economic structure, technological progress, and the increasing awareness of environmental protection and resource conservation in society and the increasing awareness of a good environment With the growth of quality demand and the establishment and improvement of energy conservation, consumption and emission reduction systems and mechanisms, after the Olympic Games, Beijing's economy will further transform into a circular economy.

The general trend of China’s stable and rapid economic development will not change after the Olympic Games

International Online News (Reporter Yan Xi): Whether China’s economy will continue to grow after the Olympic Games has always been a hot topic. focus on. In response to this issue, Wang Yiming, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, recently stated that the Olympic Games will not become a watershed in China's economic development.

As the Olympic Games are approaching its climax, more and more people are beginning to worry that China's economy will face the problem of insufficient development momentum after the Olympic Games. Wang Yiming, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, believes that in the post-Olympic period, the large-scale investment demand caused by the construction of stadiums and related infrastructure during the pre-Olympic period, as well as the huge consumption brought by domestic and foreign tourists during the Olympic period, Demand will weaken or even disappear in the short term, but the basic driving force that has supported China's sustained and rapid economic development over the past 30 years will not change. The economic and investment increment brought by the Olympic Games only accounts for a small proportion of China's total economy and investment. Therefore, the Olympic Games will not become a watershed in China's economic development, nor will it change the trend of China's stable and rapid economic development.

Wang Yiming gave an example: "For example, Beijing's (economic aggregate) accounted for 3.6% of the national economic aggregate in 2007. Beijing's Olympic venue construction and infrastructure investment was about 300 billion yuan. , if broken down in the peak period of investment, broken down to 4 years, the average annual rate is 75 billion yuan, accounting for the share of fixed asset investment in our entire society. The proportion in the past 4 years is probably between 0.55% and 1.06%, so its impact is wide. It should be said that it is very small.”

Wang Yiming pointed out that the main factors that have promoted China’s sustained and rapid economic development in the past seven years are: high savings rate, huge investment in urbanization and infrastructure construction, and residents’ consumption structure. Upgrading, huge market potential, improved labor productivity, and proactive participation in economic globalization. These basic driving forces for China's economic development will not change just because the Olympic Games are over.

Wang Yiming also admitted that while the Olympic Games bring opportunities to China's development, it may also bring challenges to economic development. With the profound changes in the global economic environment, the factors that drive economic growth due to external demand have weakened, and the cyclical correction of China's economy has increased the uncertainty of China's economic trend from both internal and external aspects. The sustained and rapid economic development will not only face the pressure of cyclical adjustment and economic transformation, but will also be affected by the superimposed impact of the "post-Olympic effect" to a certain extent. To this end, we should actively amplify the positive impact of the Olympic Games on economic development and effectively deal with various possible negative effects.

Wang Yiming said: "We must continue to play the role of Olympic venues and related infrastructure to improve the quality of life of the people. The second and more important point is that we must promote 'Green Olympics, Science and Technology Olympics, and Humanistic Olympics' ' concept to promote the transformation of our economic development model; third, we must make full use of the driving effect of the Olympic Games on the modern service industry.

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Wang Yiming also said that in order to minimize the negative impact of the “post-Olympic effect”, we should actively expand the radiation and driving effects of Olympic hosting and co-organizing cities to promote regional economic development; give full play to the benefits brought by hosting the Olympics Spiritual wealth and brand effect.

Wang Yiming believes that compared with the short-term boosting effect of Olympic venue construction and related infrastructure on China's economic growth, the Olympic Games will improve the quality of Chinese people, improve the investment environment, and increase openness. And it has a longer-term and more lasting positive effect on improving China's international image.

Regarding China's economic development prospects, Wang Yiming believes that there is huge potential.

He said: "We are in the mid-term of industrialization. The level of urbanization is still lower than the world average. Our per capita GDP was about US$2,500 in 2007, which is still far from the level of developed countries. So we say that China has a very large investment space in terms of industrial development (or) infrastructure construction and urban construction. ”

According to calculations by the National Economic Accounts Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, hosting the 2008 Olympic Games will boost my country’s national economic growth by an average of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points per year in the next seven years. If this is the case, based on my country’s domestic production in 2000 Calculated with a total value of 1 trillion U.S. dollars, the direct boost to the national economy brought by hosting the Olympic Games will exceed 3 billion U.S. dollars per year. It can be seen that hosting the Olympic Games will bring huge opportunities to our country and promote our country’s infrastructure construction ( Especially the development of Beijing's infrastructure construction, sports industry, tourism, etc.

According to the commitment made by the Chinese Olympic bid delegation, the overall project of the Beijing Olympics includes the construction of Olympic infrastructure and transportation. Roads, developing communication systems, and improving Beijing’s air and water quality, a total investment of US$48 billion will inevitably bring about very considerable output from the International Olympic Committee’s broadcast rights and sponsorship sharing. , it may be as high as about 10 billion yuan. Others, such as the tourism industry, will also gain new development opportunities. Experts predict that in the next 6 years, tourism will increase by 100% and revenue will increase by 5 billion US dollars in 6 years. 250 billion yuan, which doubled to 10 billion U.S. dollars in the year of the Olympics. In this way, the increase in tourism revenue will also bring huge business opportunities to other provinces and cities. For example, Tianjin Airport will be expanded; another example is that a large amount of sports equipment required for the Olympic Games will be produced in other places, a large number of construction materials and equipment required for Beijing's ecological and environmental projects will also be produced in other places, and a large number of consumer goods will also need to be supplied from other places. These are all It will have a stimulating effect on the economy across the country.