Will housing prices in third-tier cities continue to rise? What's your opinion?

Most of the spillover effects caused by restrictions on purchases in second-tier cities have been released, and the destocking of the property market has been basically completed. The fulcrum of maintaining high housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities is decreasing.

"As soon as the market opens in the morning, buyers with full payment and 80% down payment will look at the house first, and they will see 70% and 50% down payment in the afternoon. At night, you will only receive a short message informing that there is no room. " The development manager of Foshan Company, a leading real estate enterprise, told Caijing that in his impression, the house prices in Foshan started to rise from the beginning of 20 16, and by the middle of 20 17, the houses in downtown Foshan had doubled.

During this period, in Quanzhou, which is more than 700 kilometers away from Foshan, the property market is also extremely hot. "After the influx of demand, new houses in Quanzhou have to be bought by lottery. The probability of a popular real estate lottery is 1: 10, which can be said to be rich. " The person in charge of another leading real estate company, Xiamen Company, told Caijing that since Xiamen's purchase restriction was strengthened, a large amount of funds have flocked to Quanzhou, which is less than half an hour away from Xiamen by high-speed rail, but the house price is less than half that of Xiamen. The average price of new houses in Xiamen is 4 1000 yuan, the fourth in the country, and Quanzhou is less than 20,000 yuan, which is an obvious investment depression.

Since 20 16, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have entered a rapid rising track, and many cities like Foshan and Quanzhou have skyrocketed. Thousands of people robbed houses until the early hours of the morning and spent the night in the street. These scenery, which can only be seen when grabbing houses in first-and second-tier cities, began to be staged frequently in third-and fourth-tier cities, and even some netizens played a more "inspirational" joke: millionaires who are richer than you are waiting in the rain, so why don't you work hard?

15 In August, the National Bureau of Statistics released the price data of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July of 20 18. From the ring comparison, the sales prices of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.2%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, among which the prices in Shanghai decreased, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.2%, 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. 3 1 The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities rose by 1. 1%, which was 0. 1 percentage point lower than last month. The sales price of new commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 1.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. In addition, the sales prices of second-hand houses in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities increased by 0.2%, 1.0% and 1. 1% respectively.

Third-tier cities are obvious rising highlands.

On July 3 1 day, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting proposed "resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices". In the past, regardless of the central or local documents, the relevant expression was "resolutely curb the excessive rise in housing prices." Later, it was reported that the approval authority for the renovation of urban shanty towns returned to the central government, restricting enterprises and institutions from buying houses, and some local governments that originally planned to relax the purchase restriction were forced to continue to be strict.

Can the carnival in third-and fourth-tier cities continue?

Who is driving the skyrocketing housing prices?

"A tour group in Hangzhou just got off the bus, and one person can buy dozens of sets." A salesperson of Country Garden Beihai Impression told Caijing reporter. His house property opened in 5438+ 10 this year, and it was almost sold out after May Day. "We are a large apartment with a size of 140 square meters or more. The plate with a latitude of 2 1 degree north is still near the sea, and it was snapped up as soon as it opened." He said.

The housing big data project team of Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences compared 14 1 sample cities. The data shows that in April of 20 18, Xishuangbanna, Xianyang, Nanchong, Leshan and other cities entered 10. In the same period, 55 cities with median house prices exceeding 10,000 yuan included Foshan, Quanzhou, Jinhua, Kunshan, Zhangzhou, Nantong, Zhangjiagang, Zhongshan, Zhangzhou, Taizhou, Quzhou and Baoding.

What stimulated the skyrocketing housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities? An interview with Caijing reporter found that the spillover demand brought by restrictions on purchases, prices and loans in first-and second-tier cities, the monetary resettlement policy of shed reform in urbanization development and the depression of A-share market are all stimulating factors.

From 2065438 to March 2007, Xiamen introduced the strictest purchase restriction policy known as "house restriction, loan restriction, divorce restriction and social security restriction". Although Quanzhou also restricts purchases, it is relatively loose. For example, if you pay social security for one year, you are eligible to buy a house, while Xiamen is eligible for three years. Among the buyers in Beihai, locals and tourists each account for half. After Hainan's purchase restriction, many buyers who didn't buy a house in Hainan came to Beihai. The geographical location of Beihai is only separated from Hainan by a Beibu Gulf, and it can be reached by boat for about 10 hour. At present, foreigners can only buy one house in Beihai, but they can buy houses without restriction before 20 17.

Similarly, due to Guangzhou's purchase restriction, the overflowing purchasing power has promoted this wave of housing price increases in Foshan. On May 1 day, 2065438, Foshan cancelled the purchase restriction policy. In terms of credit, starting from 20 16, Foshan's down payment for house purchase has also changed from 30% to 20%.

An employee of Foshan Country Garden, a native of Foshan, told Caijing that about 20 16 of Guangzhou areas, such as Nanhai, Shunde Beijiao and Chancheng Center, have all risen sharply, and all of them were bought by Guangzhou customers. The new house he bought in Foshan at the end of 20 16 has now increased by 80%. According to him, the opening of the subway has also stimulated the rise in housing prices, especially new houses.

From 20 17, Foshan entered the era of subway 2.0, and the Guangzhou line docked, which had an immediate impact on housing prices.

According to the financial report, about 58% of Country Garden's sales in 20 17 came from third-and fourth-tier cities.

Chen Ge, a real estate and education industry analyst at UBS Securities, believes that there are three main reasons for this round of housing price increase in third-and fourth-tier cities. He told Caijing reporter that the first is the government's policy guidance. In the past two or three years, the transformation and monetization of shanty towns in third-and fourth-tier cities have released and spawned many housing needs in third-and fourth-tier cities; Second, the continuous advancement of urbanization, some local needs and improvement needs of third-and fourth-tier cities; The third is the spillover effect after the purchase restriction in first-and second-tier cities. Due to the purchase restriction and high housing prices in first-and second-tier cities, the real estate transaction volume in first-and second-tier cities dropped significantly from 20 17. Many people who work and live in first-and second-tier cities choose to go home to buy houses, and some investors and real estate speculators have also moved to third-and fourth-tier cities.

Another main reason for real estate speculators to move to third-and fourth-tier cities is that there are too few domestic investable targets.

2065438+July, 2007 1 day, the Measures for the Administration of Reports on Large Transactions and Suspicious Transactions of Financial Institutions issued by the Central Bank came into effect, which strictly blocked the possibility of enterprises and individuals investing in overseas markets through foreign exchange. In the past two years, the P2P financial platform featuring inclusive finance has fallen into a wave of runs, and a large number of investors have lost their money overnight; However, since the stock market plunged in 20 15 years, it has been oscillating and falling back, entering a slow bear. The house has become the only anti-inflation investment in China.

However, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have not skyrocketed as a whole, and their urban differentiation and stage characteristics are more obvious. Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, said in an interview with Caijing that the rising housing prices in some third-and fourth-tier cities have the background of urbanization, and the monetization of shed reform also has an impact on market expectations. In terms of sales volume, the contribution of monetization of shed reform to third-and fourth-tier cities is about 15%, but it has ignited the expectation of buying houses in third-and fourth-tier cities.

Caijing reporter found a list of shantytown renovation projects in Quanzhou in 20 18 on the official website of Quanzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, which shows that in 20 18, Quanzhou will invest a total of 3.248 billion yuan, with a construction area of 5 1 10,000 square meters, and build 9,644 sets of shantytown renovation projects for affordable housing.

On March 27th, 20 17, in the list of shantytown renovation projects in Fujian Province released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Quanzhou ranked second in the province with a total investment of 3107.4 billion yuan, which was only next to Putian and about Zhangzhou City (10 1.658).

The person in charge of the above-mentioned leading housing enterprise Xiamen Company told Caijing that part of the skyrocketing housing prices in Quanzhou came from the just-needed spillover effect of Xiamen's purchase restriction, and the spillover range was near jiaomei and Shuitou in Xiamen. But more from the local needs of Quanzhou, more accurately, the development of urbanization.

Quanzhou is a third-tier city, but its permanent population is 8.65 million, Xiamen's permanent population is only 40 1 10,000, and Shenzhen, a first-tier city, has a permanent population of about 1.25 million. In 20 17, the GDP of Quanzhou reached 754,805,438+0 billion yuan, ranking first in the province. This is Quanzhou's GDP leading the province for 19 years. Some people in the real estate industry predict that the population of Quanzhou may soon break through the10 million mark. Quanzhou, a third-tier city, is a second-tier city in terms of economic aggregate and population density.

Xu Xiaole believes that the acceleration of urbanization in third-and fourth-tier cities is the basic factor. China is still in the middle stage of urbanization, and the urbanization rate of third-and fourth-tier cities is still low. In recent years, with the improvement of transportation infrastructure and the inward migration of industries, third-and fourth-tier cities have entered the accelerated stage of urbanization, attracting local rural population and migrant workers to return. With the increase of income, rural residents are more inclined to go to cities to get married and their children go to school, forming a demand for housing in third-and fourth-tier cities.

How difficult is it to maintain housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities?

In the second half of the year, the fulcrum for maintaining the rapid rise of housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities is changing.

First of all, the shed reform policy has been adjusted, and the power of examination and approval has been transferred from the local to the central government.

In an interview with Xinhua News Agency recently, the person in charge of the relevant department of CDB said that the contract approval authority is still in the branch, and there is no case that the head office has the right to approve the shed reform loan contract. However, according to CDB, the approval of loan contracts is divided by the head office and branches according to their responsibilities, and so is * * *.

Recently, in order to implement the relevant regulatory requirements, CDB unified the contract approval authority to the Head Office, mainly to prevent local governments from excessive borrowing, and at the same time avoid inconsistent policies in various places, and centralized it in the Head Office for unified control.

A real estate equity investor told Caijing that although the credit authority is in the branch, the requirements have been much stricter. If the first three provisions were met before, local governments could get low-interest loans, but now they may have to meet ten provisions.

Shed reform can be divided into monetary resettlement and physical resettlement. From June 2065438 to June 2005, the State Council issued "Opinions on Further Improving the Renovation of Urban Shantytowns and Dangerous Houses in Urban and Rural Areas and the Construction of Supporting Infrastructure", and the compensation method for shed reform changed from monetary resettlement in kind to monetary resettlement first.

The monetary resettlement of shed reform means that the government directly compensates the residents of the demolished shanty towns in the form of money, and then the residents buy houses in the commercial housing market. Because of illegal operation, a lot of second-generation demolition, and some even have a net worth of over 100 million, which has also caused housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities to heat up.

Local governments have benefited a lot from it. After CDB got a low-interest loan, the local government compensated the relocated households, and then sold their land to developers at a high price. This process not only pushed up the transaction volume and house price of real estate, but also increased the local fiscal revenue.

According to the person in charge of relevant departments of CDB, in 20 15, 20 16 and 20 17 years, CDB issued 750.9 billion yuan, 972.5 billion yuan and 880 billion yuan respectively. By the end of June, 2065438+2008, a total of 3,868.4 billion yuan of shed reform loans had been issued, including 460.9 billion yuan this year.

"The number of sheds in third-and fourth-tier cities should not increase significantly this year and next." Gege told Caijing reporter. Although local governments have been actively looking for new pillar industries to transform, land transfer fees have always been an important source of their income. When implementing the central policy, local governments still shout more about real estate and do less.

According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in 20 17, local government revenue and government fund revenue were 9 1 trillion yuan and 5.8 trillion yuan respectively, and real estate-related income accounted for 45%, of which land sales revenue accounted for 35%, and real estate-related tax revenue accounted for 10%.

20 18 In March, the China 20 17 Budget Implementation Report jointly issued by the Institute of Finance and Taxation of China Renmin University, Chongyang Financial Research Institute and School of Finance and Finance showed that the top five provinces in terms of financial dependence on land were Zhejiang, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Shandong and Jiangxi, among which Zhejiang reached1/kloc-0.

Chige said that the rise and fall of housing prices also reflects the game between the central and local governments.

According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in July, the national property market regulation and control efforts reached a historical record, totaling more than 60 cities, and various real estate regulation and control policies were introduced more than 70 times. The regulatory policies were previously concentrated in second-and third-tier cities, and began to be widely distributed from first-and second-tier cities to third-and fourth-tier cities in July.

On July 3 1 day, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting proposed "resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices". A week later, at the symposium on real estate work in some cities held in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed "resolutely accountability for cities with poor property market regulation".

After other aspects are limited, the talent policy has become a marginal ball.

In the first half of 20 18, more than 40 cities across the country issued various talent policies to attract talents to settle down, introduced preferential subsidies for buying houses, and stepped on the boundaries of the purchase restriction policy. This also shows that under the strong supervision of the central government, there are not many moves that local governments can make.

"Xiamen was going to relax quietly. After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, we can only continue to tighten. " The person in charge of Xiamen Company, the aforementioned leading real estate enterprise, told Caijing that Quanzhou had a large volume of transactions since last year, which basically digested the local demand accumulated in recent years. Now affected by market confidence, the number of people who come to Quanzhou to buy a house in Xiamen has been greatly reduced. Some marginal properties used to be 2: 1 or higher, but now they have just been sold out. "I think it will be a little colder, but after all, there is no irrational rise in housing prices in Quanzhou, and it should not be as cold as Xiamen and Zhangzhou. For Quanzhou, the urbanization process has a greater impact. "

The staff of Country Garden Beihai Impression Sales Office also revealed that "the recent transaction has slowed down."

Beihai also introduced the purchase restriction policy from the second half of 20 17. Non-local hukou can only buy a house, and the bank down payment loan is increased to 40%.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that the timely and orderly withdrawal of the monetization policy of shed reform will help the market return to fundamentals and cool down some overheated markets in the short term.

This effect has already appeared in the volume data of June and July. Many cities have seen sales decline for two consecutive months. In the second quarter, among the 347 cities in China, the number of cities whose house prices rose by more than 1% decreased from 260 in April to 199 in June. In the long run, excluding the influence of external policies, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will return to the fundamentals of income and population.

Vanke's 20 17 annual report shows that the approved pre-sale area and transaction area of commercial housing in 14 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Dongguan, Foshan, Wuxi and Suzhou) which Vanke focuses on decreased by 4.3% and 29.3% respectively.

On the other hand, third-and fourth-tier cities benefited from the investment spillover effect and the destocking policy, and the transaction area of commercial housing maintained a year-on-year growth, but the growth rate at the end of the year also gradually slowed down.

Chige believes that from the perspective of the spillover demand of investment, after a year and a half, the housing prices in many cities have doubled, and the demand has been almost digested; At present, the main factor supporting the housing price increase in third-and fourth-tier cities is urbanization, which is relatively slow. Therefore, from the second half of this year to next year, real estate sales in third-and fourth-tier cities may decline slightly, but the magnitude will not be too large, and house prices will be relatively stable.

Second-tier cities may rebound slightly.

Although the factors of rising house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have changed, it does not affect the enthusiasm of real estate developers.

According to the report of China Index Academy, from 2018-65438+10-April, 20 representative real estate enterprises took 50% of the land in third-and fourth-tier cities, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year; The land acquisition area of second-tier cities accounted for 46%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year; As for first-tier cities, the land acquisition area is only 4%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year.

According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in July, the land market of hot cities in China continued to be concentrated, and the land sold in 50 hot cities exceeded 21500 million yuan, up 33% year-on-year. Among the 50 cities with the most land sales, 25 cities are third-and fourth-tier cities, setting a new historical record. The sales of 20 third-and fourth-tier cities exceeded 20 billion yuan, including Foshan, Changzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Nantong, Jinhua, Xuzhou, Heze, Taizhou, Shangrao, Weifang, Fuyang, Ganzhou and Quanzhou.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that this does not mean that house prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will continue to rise in the future, but developers expect that house prices will rise, and whether they will eventually rise depends on the bank's credit control.

Chen Ge thinks that land price lags behind house price. After the beginning of 20 17, the price of first-tier cities basically stopped rising, but the land price of first-tier cities began to decline at the end of 20 17. The market has a lagging process. "Our team observed that listed companies in third-and fourth-tier cities tended to be conservative in recent months and began to talk about the risks in third-and fourth-tier cities." Gege said.

Compared with third-and fourth-tier cities, Chige is more optimistic about the future of second-tier cities. According to the data of UBS Securities, in the whole year of 20 17, the sales area of first-hand houses in first-tier cities decreased by 27%, while that in second-tier cities decreased by about 4%. Chige believes that first-and second-tier cities are just needed for net population inflow, but many second-tier cities are not as healthy as first-tier cities in finance, mainly relying on real estate to stimulate economic growth, and their tolerance for regulation is weak. It is generally believed in the industry that the regulation cycle of real estate is two years. 2065438+From September 2006 to now, the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been regulated for two years, and the purchase restriction policy is still strict, but second-tier cities have some room.

In addition to market rules, changes in monetary policy have also triggered expectations of rising house prices.

On June 24th, the central bank announced that the deposit reserve ratio would be reduced by 0.5 percentage point from July 5th, 2008 to June 24th. The central bank's RRR cut released 700 billion yuan, which is the third RRR cut this year. Compared with the two RRR interest rate cuts in June 5438+ 10 and April this year, this time, the encouragement of debt-to-equity swap has been strengthened. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, predicted that by the end of this year, there may still be 1-2 targeted reductions in the deposit reserve ratio. In 2008, 20 1 1, 20 15, the real estate market sales obviously picked up, lasting for more than one year.

"Although the country hopes that funds can flow into the industry, we will also worry that this part of the funds will be used by enterprises to speculate in real estate and take the old road again." A real estate analyst told Caijing reporter. He believes that "the impact of RRR interest rate cuts on the housing market mainly depends on the later supervision".

According to the Caijing reporter, in July, many cities introduced policies to restrict enterprises from buying houses, completely blocking the possibility of investing in real estate speculation, and the policy of suspending enterprises and institutions from buying houses may spread to many cities. Zhang Dawei believes that this policy has a significant impact on easing the tight supply and demand in the market. Because in most first-and second-tier cities, companies buy houses.