If China refuses to export rare earths, will it be a big blow to western countries? . . What specific blows will it have on them?

Five reasons for restricting the export of rare earths:

1. Rare earths have great utilization value and strategic significance

Now one out of every six scientific innovations in the world is related to rare earths. Rare earth is known as industrial monosodium glutamate. Academician Su Qiang introduced the function of rare earth elements in his popular science book "Rare Earth Elements ―― A Big Family Around You": "The 17 members of this big family have unique physical and chemical properties such as light, electricity, magnetism and catalysis. They bring light to mankind and act as protectors of human health; They provide new energy for mankind; Provide new catalysts for chemical industry; They are all-rounders in the glass-ceramic industry; Is the vanguard of building the information superhighway; It is a vitamin for steel and nonferrous metals and a stimulator for increasing crop production; They can be used to make magnets known as the' king of permanent magnets' and magical variants without resistance at high temperatures. They have been the object of research and development by countries in the 21st century, hoping to find new miracles and new materials in this uncultivated land. Rare earth has become the land of hope for mankind. "

2. There is a serious imbalance between China's reserves and its export volume

At present, the total global reserves of rare earth resources are 88 million tons, of which China's reserves of rare earth resources only account for 31% of the world's total, CIS's reserves account for 22% of the world's total, and the United States accounts for 15%. In 29, China produced 124,8 tons of rare earths, which supplied more than 95% of the global demand. Apart from China, the output of rare earths in Russia last year was 2,47 tons, 1,7 tons in the United States and 5 tons in India. Many years ago, China's rare earth reserves accounted for about 85% of the world's reserves in public data. Later, this figure dropped from 85% to about 3% today. The declining proportion of China's reserves in the world is related to the discovery of new rare earth mines abroad, but China's massive export of rare earths is also a reason. In terms of per capita possession, China is already a country with relatively scarce rare earth resources.

3. China's domestic demand is expanding day by day

The consumption of rare earths is mainly concentrated in China, the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries and regions, among which, China has the largest consumption. According to the analysis of production and sales data in 25, the domestic consumption in 25 was 51,9 tons, while the output of smelting products was 13,8 tons. The proportion of rare earth consumption in China has reached about 5% of global consumption. On the one hand, the reason is related to the expansion of the application scope of rare earth in the national economy, on the other hand, there are also factors that increase domestic consumption caused by industrial transfer. During the 29 years from 1978 to 27, the annual consumption of rare earths in China increased from 1, tons to 72,6 tons, a net increase of 72.6 times.

4. The export price of rare earths is low

For a long time, China's rare earths have been in the position of "bargain sale". Compared with 1998, when the export quota system of rare earth products was launched, the export volume of rare earth products in China increased by 1 times, but the price decreased by 36%. At present, the downward trend of rare earth prices has been controlled, but it is still low. Xu Guangxian once said: "During the decade from 1995 to 25, China's rare earth exports lost billions of dollars in foreign exchange. Out of thin air, Japan, South Korea, etc. bought and stored the cheap and high-quality single rare earth in China for 2 years. Japan and other countries have reserves for 2 years. If the price of rare earths is high, they will not buy them. So that they have the international rare earth pricing power. The lesson is very painful. "

5. Pollution caused by mining and processing destroys the environment

Rare earth resources are widely distributed in five southern provinces (regions), and can be mined by simple heap leaching technology, which easily leads to resource waste, vegetation destruction, soil erosion and environmental pollution. In recent years, in order to standardize the development order and promote the large-scale development and intensive utilization of rare earth resources, the Ministry of Land and Resources and local people's governments have successively carried out a number of actions, which have effectively cracked down on and curbed all kinds of indiscriminate mining and excavation. However, due to the influence of factors such as the tendency of interests and the backward industrial structure, illegal activities such as indiscriminate mining and excavation, unlicensed exploration and mining, and over-quota production still occur from time to time, and all kinds of illegal mining activities are still prohibited.

Possible impacts and analysis:

1. Will export restrictions affect China's pricing power of rare earths?

Some people who oppose export restrictions think that export restrictions will affect China's pricing power of rare earths. But the reality is that the price of rare earths exported from China has been low for a long time, and it is often because China wants to raise the price but can't. China has never mastered the pricing power of rare earths. As an important strategic resource, it is more meaningful to protect rare earth than to obtain the so-called pricing power through a large number of exports.

2. Restricting exports will lead to unemployment of workers and retrogression of industries?

Restricting exports does not mean prohibiting exports, let alone stopping production. What enterprises need to do is to control the output reasonably and store the surplus products, which will not lead to the unemployment of workers. Rare earth utilization technology needs to be researched and developed by other countries, and it is not good for the whole rare earth industry to greatly restrict the export of rare earths. The implication is that it is unreasonable to win R&D cooperation between western countries and us through a large number of rare earths exports. Rare earth R&D cooperation and rare earth export are two different things, and the idea of exporting for technology is out of date. Years of practice have proved that China's massive cheap exports have not been exchanged for many important technologies.

3. Restricting exports violates WTO regulations?

It is an inalienable right of China to restrict the export of strategic resources. No banner of "free trade" can infringe on the basic rights of the country and people. In the Declaration on the Establishment of a New National Economic Order adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on May 1, 1974, it is clearly stipulated that every country has full and permanent sovereignty over its natural resources and all economic activities, and no country should be subjected to economic, political or other forms of coercion, so that it cannot freely and fully exercise this inalienable right. The United Nations General Assembly has further confirmed the above-mentioned rights of a country, and the relevant articles of the WTO, which are directly aimed at international trade rules, also recognize the above-mentioned rights of a country. The practices of the United States and the European Union are tantamount to trampling on the bottom line of the basic norms of the international community and rudely trampling on the basic sovereignty of a sovereign country. In fact, the United States and Europe have the most extensive and severe export controls in the world. The United States alone has a large number of bills restricting exports to China, the earliest of which is document NS41 in 1949.

4. Will export restrictions lead to rampant smuggling activities?

In recent years, China's rare earth smuggling activities are rampant, not because of the restrictions on the export of rare earths, but because for a long time, hundreds of rare earth export products in China have only more than 4 tax codes, and some products are out of line with the tax codes, which can not meet the regulatory requirements and lead to rare earth smuggling from time to time. It is precisely because the supervision on the production and export of rare earths is not strict enough that it provides a hotbed for the smuggling of rare earths. The United States, which is also a big rare earth country, has much stricter restrictions on rare earth exports than China, but there has been no smuggling of rare earths in the United States.

5. Will export restrictions attract western countries to retaliate?

The so-called "revenge" of western countries is nothing more than restricting the export of iron ore and high technology to China. Has China suffered less in this respect? The price of iron ore has been so high that even if people are willing to sell it, China Steel Works may not be able to afford it. As for high-tech, western countries have always kept a tight blockade on China. To put it bluntly, China has been suffering from "retaliation" from western countries, so there is absolutely no need for China to be afraid. On the contrary, restricting exports can just add chips to China's import negotiations.