Behind Huailai's cancellation of the purchase restriction "Oolong": Zhangjiakou's housing prices are down

On July 2nd, official website, the People's Government of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, posted a Note on Cancelling the Purchase Restriction Policy in Huailai County (hereinafter referred to as the Note), stating that Huailai did not cancel the purchase restriction policy or relax the regulation of the real estate market.

Since 20 15 Zhangjiakou became the host city of the 2022 Winter Olympics, the sales offices have been fighting for houses. Until 20 17, some areas in Zhangjiakou were restricted to purchase, and the fiery market came to an abrupt end.

Now that the purchase is restricted for three years, the land price in Zhangjiakou continues to fall. In those days, grabbing houses became robbing customers, and winning customers at the lowest price became the "hidden rule" of selling houses. As a result, the risks of those high-priced places in the past are also increasing. At the moment of the epidemic, the Zhangjiakou property market is particularly sensitive to changes in the purchase restriction policy.

"Abolishing the document" triggered the speculation that Huailai canceled the purchase restriction.

The above explanation of official website in Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City pointed out that on July 1 day, some media released the news that Huailai County, Hebei Province canceled the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, which was not true. On June 10, Huailai County People's Government abolished seven expired documents, but it did not abolish the purchase restriction policy or relax the regulation of the real estate market.

In fact, this incident caused a storm, mainly because, among the expired documents that were cancelled, there was "Document No.62" issued by Huailai County in February 20 16, in which it was mentioned that non-Huailai County residents who had signed a labor contract for more than 2 years, paid social insurance for more than 1 year and paid taxes were restricted from buying. This document is Huailai's regulation of "purchase restriction".

In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the documents are due, and there is no seamless connection between them, which should be temporarily lifted. Huailai is a national 13 "one-day tour" policy area.

Huailai is the closest area to Beijing in Zhangjiakou City. Bordering Yanqing District, Changping District and Mentougou District in Beijing, it is known as the "back garden" of Beijing, and has taken over part of the housing demand overflowed from Beijing.

20 15 Beijing joined hands with Zhangjiakou to win the right to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, which brought impetus to the rising housing prices in Zhangjiakou. Especially in Zhangjiakou, represented by Chongli and Huailai, house prices began to rise.

In Chongli, where the Winter Olympics snow project is located, the price of individual buildings jumped to more than 1000 yuan/square meter. The unit price of some properties for sale has also increased from 300 yuan/m2 to 900 yuan/m2. Because the demand was in short supply at that time, the sales office staged a house grab war from time to time.

Subsequently, a new round of real estate regulation cooled the fiery market. 20 16, 1 1, Huailai took the lead in liberalizing the purchase restriction policy, 12 policy was upgraded, and the number of buyers dropped sharply. 2065438+In March and May, 2007, Chongli District and Zhangjiakou City successively introduced the purchase restriction policy, and the market waited and saw, which ushered in a "cold spring".

Housing prices in Zhangjiakou continued to fall, returning to the level of three years ago.

The purchase restriction policy has been implemented for three years. Why is the market sensitive to the cancellation of "purchase restriction"? How is the property market in Zhangjiakou? You can learn a little from the data of the organization.

According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou Fangtianxia Data Monitoring Center, from 20 17 to May 2020, the price of new houses in the main urban area of Zhangjiakou showed a trend of first rising and then falling. Whether in Qiaodong, Qiaoxi or Economic Development Zone, the price rose from 20 17 to 20 18, and the price continued to fall from 20 18 to 2020. The biggest drop is in Qiaodong District. In 2020, compared with 20 18, the house price decreased by 2603 yuan/m2, with a decrease of 17.5%. At present, house prices have fallen back to three years ago.

According to a local industry insider's rough statistics, the average house price in Qiaodong District has dropped from 1 .2000 yuan/square meter to the present 9600 yuan/square meter, and that in Economic Development Zone has dropped from 1 .2500 yuan/square meter to the present110000 yuan/square meter, and that in qiaoxi district has dropped from110000 yuan/square meter.

It is not difficult to see from the above data that "the average housing price in Zhangjiakou has dropped significantly from 20 18 two years ago. Since Zhangjiakou fully implemented the purchase restriction policy, regional house prices have dropped by about 2,000 per square meter. " The above-mentioned insiders said.

In fact, from 2065438 to September 2009, the house price in Zhangjiakou was adjusted back from the original five figures to four figures. In 2020, the downward trend of house prices will continue.

According to data from Zhangjiakou Fangtianxia, the prices of both new and second-hand houses fell in June. Among them, the average price of new houses was 9693 yuan/square meter, down 0.48% from the previous month and 4.2% from the same period last year; The average price of second-hand houses is about 8004 yuan/square meter, down 0.5% from the previous month and 6.9% from the same period last year. As far as districts and counties are concerned, the biggest decline in the price of new houses is in Qiaodong District, the biggest decline in second-hand houses is in Huailai County, and the biggest year-on-year decline is in Zhangbei County.

According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, the rapid recovery period of the national market gradually stabilized after the end of the epidemic, but Zhangjiakou became the top ten cities where the transaction price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.94% from the previous month, down by 5.59% year-on-year.

From the perspective of market fundamentals, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the Zhangjiakou property market represented by Huailai has developed rapidly, especially through the Zhangjiakou Winter Olympics, but during the current epidemic, market transactions have been significantly affected. Objectively, there is obvious pressure to remove chemicals.

Land release, residential inventory growth rate reached 45% this year.

Before the house price in Zhangjiakou fell, it was also difficult to find a room. However, from 2065438+06 to 2065438+08, well-known real estate enterprises such as Country Garden, Evergrande, Poly and Blu-ray successively entered Zhangjiakou and started the enclosure movement.

The fast pace of land market supply is the most obvious feature of Zhangjiakou's successful Olympic bid for four years. "There have been too many land sales for four or five consecutive years, and the market is seriously oversupply. Nowadays, few foreign real estate enterprises have taken land in Zhangjiakou as in the previous two years. " Some local insiders said.

According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou Fangtianxia, in 20 19, Zhangjiakou 19 counties sold 89 1 plot of state-owned land, with a total transaction area of about 24,632 mu and a total transaction amount of about147.05 million yuan. Both the number of land transactions and the transaction area reached record highs, of which the total number of land transactions increased by about 77.49% and the total transaction area increased by 82.24%.

According to the data of Yiju Research Institute, as of the end of May, the inventory of 57 cities in 100 increased positively year-on-year. Inventory in some cities increased by more than double digits, among which Zhangjiakou ranked last 10 with the increase of house price, but its inventory ranked first 10 with the increase of 45%.

Due to the continuous transfer of a large amount of land, and the speed of Zhangjiakou property market is not good, the cycle of de-transformation has always been a concern in the industry.

100 Sorting Table of Year-on-Year Growth Rate of Inventory Area of Newly Built Commercial Residential Buildings in Cities

Land prices are not what they used to be, and high prices have become a "hot potato"

It is worth noting that although the land transaction area in Zhangjiakou increased significantly in 20 19, the land transaction amount showed a downward trend.

On the other hand, in the land market of 20 18, Poly won the plot 04 of Zhangjiakou Coal Machinery Factory at the end of May at 20 1 12 1 10,000 yuan/mu, and now this plot is called Poly Central Park Project. Country Garden won the 05 plot of Zhangjiakou Coal Machinery Factory at the price of 1 1.3 million yuan/mu, and the current case is named Country Garden Tianxi. At that time, it set a new historical land price in Zhangjiakou.

Because of the strong land acquisition of Poly and Country Garden, there was a heated discussion at that time. The comprehensive floor price of these two plots located in Qiaodong District is above 6000 yuan/square meter. At that time, the estimated house price in the industry was 14000 yuan/square meter. According to the information of Fangtianxia in Zhangjiakou, the average house price in Qiaodong District is 10977 yuan/square meter.

Previously, the fiery atmosphere in the local auction market gave people the impression that "land can be auctioned", but the good times did not last long, mainly due to the restricted purchase, especially in the restricted purchase areas such as Zhangjiakou main city, Chongli and Huailai, which showed that the capital cost of land acquisition by real estate enterprises was getting higher and higher, the regulatory review was getting stricter and stricter, and the land market was getting colder and colder.

According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou Fangtianxia, in 20 19, the land transaction in Zhangjiakou decreased by about 3.88%, which is different from the frequent high-priced land in 20 18. 20 19 Zhangjiakou "Phenomenal Transaction Plot" disappeared, and developers returned to rationality in land acquisition.

On June 30, 2020, Joy City Holdings and Jiangdu Construction jointly won three plots in Zhangjiakou Economic Development Zone for 873 million yuan, with a total land area of 305 mu and a land price of only 2.86 million yuan/mu. Comparatively speaking, the plot on the south side of Chaoyang West Street in 20 19 1 menstrual period is equivalent to 5,744,400 yuan/mu. Although the land situation is different, the price does change a lot.

In fact, the interaction between the land market and the property market has curbed the rise in housing prices. Zhangjiakou property market has entered the second half. And how will those high-priced land become a hot potato?

"At present, the Zhangjiakou market is overdrawn in advance, and the Zhangjiakou industry is still insufficient. It is not a population-oriented city with fierce competition. Most of the current real estate projects use price wars. " Local industry insiders said so.

According to the analysis of Zhangjiakou Fangtianxia, with the blossoming of new housing projects everywhere, customers' grabbing houses has become sales grabbing customers, and the real estate market is struggling. Winning customers at the lowest price has become the "hidden rule" of selling houses since 20 19.

In this regard, Zhang Dawei believes that the housing prices around Beijing have fallen to just needed, and it is difficult to buy a house in Beijing. If it is open to settle down, it will help these people transfer their jobs and buy houses.