23 provinces launched this year’s old community renovation plan, and the scope of renovation in some areas has been expanded

In the 2020 government work report, old communities were included in the "two new and one heavy" construction that not only promotes consumption and benefits people's livelihood, but also adjusts the structure to increase stamina. It is proposed to start new construction to renovate old urban areas. There are 39,000 residential communities, which support the renovation of pipe networks, the installation of elevators, etc., and the development of various community services such as home care, dining, and cleaning.

In this context, various regions have begun to accelerate the renovation of old communities. A reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald recently found that 23 provinces have released work plans related to the renovation of old communities in 2020, promoting relevant work from various aspects such as renovation content, renovation scope, renovation funding sources, and industrial chains.

Carry out a new round of bottom-up survey

According to preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are nearly 160,000 old communities nationwide, involving more than 42 million residents, with a construction area of ??approximately 4 billion square meters.

In 2020, various regions plan to renovate 39,000 old urban communities, involving nearly 7 million residents, which is double the number of 19,000 communities and approximately 3.52 million residents in 2019. According to incomplete statistics from 21st Century Business Herald reporters, as of early June, 23 provinces had released work plans for the renovation of old communities in 2020.

Although the State Council executive meeting on April 14 emphasized that the focus of the renovation of old communities is residential areas built before the end of 2000, in local plans, the standards are not exactly the same, and some provinces have expanded the scope of transformation.

The "Technical Guidelines for the Renovation of Old Residential Areas in Fujian Province (Draft for Comments)" states that the scope of reconstruction of old residential areas is "built before 2000, the main structure is safe, and the public infrastructure is missing" "Old residential communities in cities and counties (Chengguan towns) that affect residents' basic lives and have strong residents' willingness to transform", but the document also proposes to "simultaneously transform some communities, blocks and areas with incomplete infrastructure built before 2010" .

The "Shandong Province Implementation Plan for Deeply Promoting the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Areas" announced by Shandong Province in March set the time standard for old residential areas before December 31, 2005, and proposed that " At the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, on the basis of ensuring the completion of the renovation of old communities built before 2000, we will strive to basically complete the renovation tasks of old communities built before 2005.

In addition to "what to change", there are also different policies issued by various places on the issue of "how to change", but most of them are arranged according to three categories: basic, perfect and improved.

Anhui Province plans to renovate 871 old communities this year, involving 259,000 households. According to the plan, its "basic" transformation mainly focuses on filling the functional shortcomings of the community, demolishing illegal construction, and solving the needs of water supply, drainage, gas supply, power supply, roads, communications (including fiber optics to the home), parking, etc.; "complete type" "" is mainly about the installation of elevators, house maintenance and renovation, supporting parking lots and charging piles, activity facilities, property services, smart security facilities, etc.; while the "enhanced type" is mainly aimed at public services and public environment. Including the addition of community elderly care, childcare, medical care, housekeeping, sports facilities, smart envelope (express) boxes and other convenient facilities.

In terms of specific progress, each province has different progress. According to the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Jilin Province is accelerating the establishment of an old community renovation project management system and has completed the preparation of a technical guidance manual (basic facilities) for the renovation of old urban communities. Heilongjiang recently held a video conference to promote the renovation of old residential areas across the province, and the renovation of local old residential areas has entered the bidding and construction stage.

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that various regions are still promoting a new round of thorough investigations into old communities.

Beijing carried out a comprehensive survey of old communities in the city in September 2017, and in the latest "2020 Comprehensive Improvement Work Plan for Old Communities", Beijing once again proposed to conduct a comprehensive survey of old communities , the old community database has been basically completed.

An official from the housing and construction department in a central provincial capital city told the 21st Century Business Herald that the local area began to promote comprehensive environmental improvement of old residential areas in 2012 and has conducted many investigations. However, a new round of census of old communities started at the end of March this year, mainly to provide local decision-making basis for the next phase of renovation of old communities and to establish relevant project databases.

Investment intensity varies from place to place

In the renovation of old communities, where the money comes from and where it goes is the biggest concern of all walks of life.

The State Council executive meeting held on April 14 pointed out that promoting the renovation of old communities is an important measure to expand domestic demand. Starting from 2019, the renovation of old urban communities will be included in the affordable housing project, and central subsidy funds will be arranged to support it.

Judging from the renovation standards announced by various places, the average investment intensity in the renovation of old communities varies. According to statistics from Bank of China Securities, four provinces across the country, namely Anhui, Hebei, Guizhou and Qinghai, have announced specific investment plans.

Among them, Anhui Province’s 2020 urban old community renovation plan involves a total of 259,691 households. The province’s estimated total investment is 3,299.699 million yuan, with an average of 12,700 yuan per household. The average price per household in Qinghai Province is about 15,000 yuan, and in the "most expensive" Guizhou Province, each household is close to 40,000 yuan. In 2018, Hebei Province released the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Renovation of Old Residential Areas in Hebei Province (2018-2020)", with the average amount per household being only 9,000 yuan.

However, the question of where the money comes from still remains. Although the renovation of old communities has been included in the scope of special bonds, many researchers interviewed said that special bonds require projects with a certain amount of income, but the cash income generated from the renovation of old communities is limited, which has become a big problem.

In this regard, Li Qilin, chief economist of Guangdong Securities, told the 21st Century Business Herald that an important source of income from special bonds for urban renewal is land appreciation income, that is, the value of houses and lots is increased through renovation. Judging from the actual implementation, some local governments have chosen to use government fund revenue as a source of debt repayment funds.

The old renovation project in Tongling City, Anhui Province combines the renovation of rainwater and sewage diversion in 94 old residential areas, with a total investment of 365 million yuan, of which 165 million yuan of capital comes from fiscal funds, and the rest is financed through special bonds. The expected sources of income for debt repayment of this project are land transfer income and sewage collection and treatment income. The former accounts for 49.65% of the total income. The local government approved the transfer of 135 acres of nearby land as a source of fund repayment.

How much of a stimulating effect will these investments ultimately have? Many interviewees believe that although the stimulating effect of the renovation of old communities on real estate investment is not as good as that of shed renovation, the stimulating effect on demand in related fields is still obvious .

At the 2020 China International Coatings Conference, Zhao Luxing, a researcher at the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that after the epidemic, the renovation of old urban communities will become one of the important means to protect people's livelihood, stabilize investment, and boost domestic demand. . According to the early national pilot situation, the proportion of indoor secondary decoration in the renovation of old residential areas is 20 to 30, which may further increase the overall paint market space, which will provide great development for the architectural coatings, building waterproofing and coating industries. space.

Sinolink Securities predicts that, driven by the reform, in the field of consumer building materials, the market space for waterproof materials can reach 23.6 billion yuan; the market space for coatings is 51.8 billion yuan; the market space for pipes The space is 27.3 billion yuan.