Year-end Chronicle 22

[ car home? Industry]? The year 22, which is expected to be "restarted", has also come to an end. Facing the unpredictable fate, the complicated and changeable market environment and the complicated international situation, how can China's automobile industry move forward steadily? Near the end of the year, car home communicated with a number of senior enterprise executives and senior industry experts, and combined with industry reports and public information, made predictions on key areas such as sales volume in 221, new energy, luxury brands, demand for replacement and purchase, and used cars. It's the end of another year. Looking back to 22, the global automobile industry, which has been violently impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic, has accelerated the process of technological change and pattern reshaping. The signal of the alternation of old and new times is ready to come out, and the micro-rings of each subdivision track are brewing huge waves. Car home Industry Channel launched the special plan of "Year-end Chronicle 22", which deeply interviewed hot parties and phenomenon makers, discussed the focus topics that affected the fate of the industry, and interpreted the moving automobile China. This issue focuses on the topic of "auto market forecast in 221".

list of core information:

1. In 221, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to increase by about 7%, and the terminal sales volume will be more than 21 million. ? 2. The new energy market has crossed the adjustment period, and it is expected to increase by 4% in 221, and the sales volume will reach about 1.5 million vehicles. ? 3. Luxury brands are rising steadily, and it is estimated that the growth rate will be around 1% in 221. ? 4. In 221, the passenger car market will account for more than 5%, and the scale will reach 14.22 million. ? 5. The second-hand car market is expected to grow by 15%, with a transaction volume of 17 million vehicles.

◆ The auto market has rebounded into a * * * knowledge, and it has developed in a convergent way after being repaired

At the end of last year, when the year 22 was predicted, most of the voices in the industry thought that the sales volume of the auto market would drop slightly, ranging from 2% to 1%, and the final result basically fell within this range, but the process of ups and downs exceeded everyone's expectations. In the first quarter, affected by the epidemic, automobile production and sales plummeted to the bottom. Fortunately, it began to pick up in May and gradually filled the shortage in the first half of the year. Up to now, the momentum of seven consecutive monthly year-on-year increases has continuously consolidated the confidence in the industry. During the Guangzhou Auto Show, many senior car companies gave positive judgments when communicating with us about next year's prospects, and even expected to grow by about 1% in an optimistic state in 221.

Automobile consumption is closely related to the macro-economy. The Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that the economy will continue to repair next year. In addition, after the vaccine goes on the market, the epidemic prevention and control will be further improved, and the consumption and service industries will accelerate the repair. Considering the low growth base this year, the influencing factors of policy lag, and the domestic and international economic growth environment, the year-on-year GDP data may appear "virtual high" next year, and it is predicted that the growth rate will reach about 8%. Under this situation, "the passenger car market will resume positive growth in 221" has become the industry's * * * judgment.

specifically, it is generally expected in the industry that the sales volume of passenger cars will increase by 7-1% next year, and the terminal retail volume is expected to be around 21-22 million. China auto market has entered the adjustment period since 218, and has been turning down. Looking at all countries, the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries have experienced similar adjustments after entering the population of more than 15 vehicles, and then increased after 3-4 years of adjustment. Compared with foreign markets, China still has great potential and is expected to surpass the United States as the country with the largest number of cars next year.

Although next year may see the highest year-on-year growth since 217, what needs to be pondered coldly is that the National Development and Reform Commission uses "repair" to describe the macroeconomic situation, while the the State Council Development Research Center puts forward the keyword "convergence", which means to gradually converge to the potential growth rate instead of continuing the current growth rate of more than 1%. Because the high growth rate in recent months is influenced by the previous consumption base and passionate consumption demand, it will not last for a long time.

after all, the passenger car terminal market exceeded 22 million in 216, and even if it is restored to this level next year, it is still in the process of repair, and there is still a long way to go.

how far is the milestone goal of "3 million vehicles"? According to car home's "Guide to Automobile Consumption in China in 22" published in September, it is optimistically predicted that in the new decade, driven by new energy and intelligent networking technology, automobile sales will further increase, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% from 226 to 23 and a breakthrough of 3 million vehicles in 229.

◆ Structural features will continue

1. New energy will cross the "Death Valley" and resume rapid growth

More optimistic than the overall passenger car market is the new energy field, and the new energy market in 221 is expected to return to its former bright color, with the predicted growth rates of "+3%", +4% "and +5%" all available. The specific scale depends on the transformation of future consumption, product competitiveness and the degree of infrastructure development.

the national new energy automobile industry development plan clearly points out that the new energy target will account for 2% by 225, which means that the compound annual growth rate in the next few years is close to 4%. At the beginning, the growth rate was higher because of the low base.

since the subsidy declined sharply in June 219, the new energy market, which was originally unique, has also been frosted. After nearly a year of negative growth, it has finally entered a new stage of development. Symbolic events include Tesla's entry into China to drive consumers' awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles; Wuling's economic electric vehicle sales have surpassed Tesla since September; BYD Han, a mid-to high-end household model, is in short supply; There are three new energy automobile enterprises in China among the top ten global automobile enterprises in terms of market value, which is an unprecedented breakthrough.

in p>22, the product structure of new energy vehicles has also undergone great changes. This year, the new energy vehicle market is mainly driven by private consumption, and new products emerge in an endless stream, covering all aspects from high-end cars to economical cars. Compared with the "two-crowded" structure in the early stage of industrialization of new energy vehicles, that is, buses and mini-cars are pushed from both ends to gradually squeeze into the middle passenger car market. Now it presents a new pattern: from the two ends of high-end and economical electric vehicles, it is squeezing into the middle cost-effective vehicle market.

in p>221, with the entry of foreign-funded enterprises such as Volkswagen and Toyota, the new energy vehicle market will be revived, and the terminal market structure is expected to change from dumbbell to spindle. The proportion of pure electric private users' purchases has increased, and the sales of pure electric vehicles in non-dual cities will also increase. The new energy vehicle market has shifted to demand and matured.

at the same time, with the direction of new energy vehicles becoming clearer, intellectualization is taking over as the main driving force for automobile reform and growth, and China automobile consumers have high expectations for intelligent driving. The application rate of adaptive cruise in various models has greatly increased, and the satisfaction of auxiliary parking has also been greatly improved. Intelligent human-computer interaction will be the winner of the competitiveness of future automobile products.

2. The penetration rate of luxury cars continues to increase, and the price goes down again.

Luxury brands have been growing against the trend for several years in a row, and will continue to increase steadily in 221, with an estimated growth rate of about 1%. Since April this year, the luxury car market has resumed positive growth, leading the overall market to gradually recover. From January to November this year, it increased by 11% year-on-year, achieving a rare growth in the depressed market.

the demand for luxury cars is improving, which is related to the trend of consumption upgrading and the downward price drop. From January to November, 22, the high-priced market recovered significantly, with the year-on-year decline of products in the range of 2,-25, narrowed to .3%, and the range above 25, increased by .4%. In contrast, the performance of the range below 1, was relatively poor, and the share dropped by 3.7 percentage points compared with last year.

at the same time, the discount rate of luxury brands reached nearly 2%, higher than the same period last year. The weighted average price of luxury cars continues to decline, on the one hand, benefiting from the downward adjustment of import tariffs and value-added tax, on the other hand, because the proportion of domestic products in China has increased year by year, from 45% in 211 to about 7% at present. Coupled with the intensive introduction of entry-level products, it has squeezed the market space of joint ventures and China car companies.

3. The scale of redemption continues to expand, driving the demand market for new cars

Among the user samples surveyed in car home from April 22 to August 22, the first purchase demand accounted for only 2.3%, and the increase and replacement purchase accounted for 79.7%. In the actual market consumers, the proportion of users who have increased their purchases has increased year after year and will become the mainstream of the market.

China Automobile Center predicts that the redemption scale of passenger car market will reach 14.22 million in 221, which will drive the terminal retail of 8.48 million new cars. Among them, there are about 2.9 million compact SUVs, 1.41 million compact cars, 1.37 million medium SUVs and 1.1 million medium cars.

according to the survey, customers who buy more and buy more prefer high-grade vehicles, and the market share of high-grade vehicles continues to rise, and this trend will be more obvious with the further increase of the proportion of purchase. Judging from the car body situation, customers who have increased their purchases have a better understanding of their own needs, and the niche car body form can also win the favor of users. The brand factor even exceeds the product factor when the customers consider the purchase, which is rare in the first purchase. It can be said that brand power is the only way to attract more and more customers. 221 will benefit the development of brand-driven enterprises.

4. The policy dividend is released, and the used car market is expected to grow by 15%

China will soon become the world's largest car owner, and increasing the demand for replacement will also bring about an active used car market. According to McKinsey's survey, in 217, nearly 89% of users did not consider buying a used car, while only 11% thought that both new and used cars could be used, which was a swing. No one just considered buying a used car. By 219, the number of people considering buying both new cars and used cars has increased from 11% to 15%, and even 5% people only consider buying used cars. It is expected that the proportion of users willing to buy used cars will increase in the future.

china automobile dealers association predicts that the transaction volume of used cars will reach about 14.35 million in 22, which is 3%-4% lower than last year. It is expected to reach 17 million vehicles in 221, and it is expected to achieve an increase of about 15%.

comparing the sales structure of new cars and used cars, the used car market in China has a broad development space. Policies such as lowering the value-added tax, simplifying the registration system and piloting the export of used cars will further revitalize the used car market. By 225, it is estimated that the transaction volume of used cars plus new cars will exceed 5 million, making it the largest automobile trading market in the world.

◆ Conclusion

In p>221, the passenger car market in China will bid farewell to negative growth and usher in new development opportunities, including the sustained and stable recovery of macro-economy, the introduction of policies to stimulate automobile consumption by local governments, the good effect of epidemic prevention and control, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for promotion. At the same time, we must be soberly aware that the complicated international situation and the unstable overseas epidemic will also have an impact on China auto market.

Many things are hard to predict. After all, the world is not deconstructed according to people's expected state. Like the black swan and grey rhinoceros that keep coming, it has been subverting our cognition and judgment of this world. The well-known magazine The Economist predicted that the key words of the world in 22 would be Brexit and the Winter Olympics, but none of them happened now. However, only by constantly forecasting and constantly revising the forecast can we approach the essence of market development, thus gaining a correct understanding and grasping opportunities. (Text/car home? Du Junyi)