How to reduce the leverage of real estate in the third quarter: increase returns, take less land and sell equity.

Real estate enterprises are fully reducing leverage to meet regulatory requirements such as "three red lines".

"At the beginning of next year, the industry will report data to regulators, and reducing leverage ratio is our most important thing at present." 165438+10.5, the regional head of a medium-sized real estate enterprise said that after the "three red lines", real estate enterprises increased sales rebates, reduced land acquisition, and even introduced strategic or financial investors to buy shares or transfer asset packages.

With the acceleration of real estate deleveraging, the external financing of banks and trusts is increasingly tense. In the fourth quarter, development loans showed a tightening trend, banks tightened loans to real estate enterprises, and compliance supervision of real estate trust business continued.

165438+1October 5, 265438+exclusive report on the 20th century business herald, it was learned that the CBRC informed that it was required to focus on strengthening the control of capital flow in large overdraft and cash installment business, collect valid capital use vouchers in time, and prevent funds from illegally flowing into non-consumption areas such as the real estate market.

On August 20 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Bank held a symposium on key real estate enterprises, which first mentioned the "detailed rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises", which is generally called "three red lines" in the industry.

After the 11th holiday, within a week, central bank officials mentioned the new financing rules for housing enterprises twice. Peng, deputy director of the financial market department of the central bank, bluntly said that one of the purposes of the new regulations is to "correct the blind expansion of some enterprises".

The third quarterly report of housing enterprises shows that the decline in leverage level has become a definite trend. According to the statistics of Wind, there are 48 real estate companies in the A-share real estate development sector whose "asset-liability ratio excluding advance payment" is over 70%, which is 1 lower than that in the second quarter. There are 38 companies whose "net debt ratio" is greater than 100%, which is 1 lower than that in the second quarter.

Among large-scale real estate enterprises, by the end of the third quarter, the asset-liability ratio of Greenland Holdings, Vanke and Poly Real Estate after excluding advance payment decreased by 0.32, 1.33 and 0.37 percentage points respectively compared with the second quarter, but the net debt ratio of Greenland Holdings and Vanke increased by 3.20 and 0.44 percentage points respectively, and the net debt ratio of Poly Real Estate decreased by 1.20 percentage points respectively.

Then, by the end of the third quarter, the asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio of Huaxia Happiness, Jinke and Zhongnan Construction all decreased month-on-month, and the net debt ratios of Jinke and Zhongnan Construction decreased by 12.39 and1.16 percentage points respectively. However, the net debt ratio of Xincheng Holdings increased by 20.68 percentage points from the previous month.

In the A-share Shenwan real estate development sector, the "asset-liability ratio after excluding advance receipts" index has the largest decline, namely *ST Friendship, Aixu and Hualian Holdings. Compared with the second quarter, the end of the third quarter decreased by 15.7 1, 15.29 and 10.99 percentage points respectively. The impression of Hefei Urban Construction, Rong Feng Holdings and Sanxiang has also dropped by more than 5 percentage points.

Shang Lu Development, Qixia Construction, Beijing Investment Development, Shenzhen Property and Fahua Co., Ltd. saw the largest decline in the net debt ratio index, which decreased by 55.35, 42.28, 465,438+0.72, 34. 14, 32.165,438+0 respectively at the end of the third quarter. Tian Fang Development, China Wuyi, Youngor, Ningbo Fidelity, Oceanwide Holdings, Guangming Real Estate, Ye Wan Enterprise, Hefu Urban Construction and Suzhou Hi-Tech have seen their net debt ratio drop by more than 20 percentage points.

However, the leverage level of some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises is still rising. The asset-liability ratio of Jingneng Real Estate, *ST Guangxin, Rong 'an Real Estate, Yue Hongyuan and Ma Di increased by 5.03, 4.28, 3.95, 3.58 and 3.43 percentage points respectively after excluding advance payment. *ST Songjiang, Yunnan Chengtou, Jingneng Real Estate, Jinan Gaoxin, Nanshan Holdings, *ST Guangxin and Daming City increased their net debt ratios 175.77, 60. 15, 56.30, 51./kloc-0 respectively.

According to the statistics of open source securities, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, the asset-liability ratio of A-share real estate sector excluding advance receipts (contractual liabilities) was 72. 1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. Leading companies, property management and after-sales service companies decreased by 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points respectively. The net debt ratio was 90.3%, down 9.0 percentage points year-on-year; Leading companies, property management and after-sales service companies decreased by 16. 1 and increased by 5.5 points respectively. In other words, the leading companies have the strictest control over the level of leverage, and it continues to decline.

Some real estate analysts said that for a long time to come, most real estate enterprises will be on the road of reducing financial leverage, whether it is passive leverage reduction caused by financing tightening or active leverage reduction based on prosperity judgment. The direct financial performance is that the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities is lower than the growth rate of corporate sales and performance. With the decrease of ROE's dependence on financial leverage, housing enterprises are expected to usher in a revaluation.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the three red lines are a red line that follow-up housing enterprises and industries need to pay attention to, so reducing leverage and reducing dependence on debt are the core contents. From the actual process, this reduction in leverage also shows that market participants have made adjustments.

The "three red lines" are accelerating and the scope is expected to expand.

It is reported that at the end of 10, the supervision strengthened the supervision of real estate developers, requiring some developers to disclose financial details on a monthly basis, including 12 housing enterprises such as Evergrande, Sunac and Vanke to report financing details, total liabilities and operating data on 15 every month.

Peng, deputy director of the financial market department of the central bank, said at the press conference of financial statistics in the third quarter of 2020 that in the next step, we will follow up and evaluate the implementation effect with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other relevant departments, constantly improve the rules and steadily expand the scope of application.

With the process of real estate deleveraging, the external financing of banks and trusts is becoming increasingly tense.

165438+1On October 5, a person from the South China Bonus Real Estate Finance Department of a big bank said that it was affected by real estate financial regulation. After the "three red lines" pilot, banks tightened their loans to real estate enterprises and controlled the quota. In addition, some bankers said that development loans showed a tightening trend in the fourth quarter. After the "three red lines" of real estate financing are defined, the bank's real estate development loans will be tightened mainly through quota management, and the head office also requires "excellent projects".

265438+20 th Century Business Herald reported exclusively at the end of September that the regulatory authorities recently asked large commercial banks to reduce their pressure and control the scale of real estate loans such as personal housing mortgage loans. A big banker said that there was a requirement at the beginning of supervision that the new housing-related loans this year should not exceed a certain proportion of all new loans, which may be about 30%.

China People's Bank1October 30th released the statistical report 65438 on the loan investment of financial institutions in the third quarter of 2020, which showed that the growth rate of real estate loans continued to decline. At the end of the third quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 48.83 trillion yuan, up 65,438+02.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage point from the end of last quarter, falling for 26 consecutive months; In the first three quarters, it increased by 4.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.2% of the increase of various loans in the same period, which was 6.8 percentage points lower than the annual level of the previous year.

Yan Yuejin said that after the "three red lines", banks themselves will begin to pay attention to control, and housing enterprises themselves will make adjustments, especially in terms of land acquisition at high prices. Therefore, this is all worthy of recognition, and the subsequent action of reducing leverage will contribute to the better development of the real estate market.

In addition to banks, the Trust Department of the China Banking Regulatory Commission recently issued the Notice on Launching a New Round of Special Investigation of Real Estate Trust Business, demanding that the scale of real estate trust be strictly controlled, the penetrating supervision of real estate trust be strengthened, and it is strictly forbidden to provide channels for funds to flow into the real estate market in violation of regulations. This special investigation is mainly aimed at the continuous compliance supervision, risk prevention and resolution and the implementation of accountability for rectification of real estate trust business. The CBRC requires all banking regulatory bureaus to report the investigation before165438+1October 30.

With the acceleration of leverage reduction, there has been a rare situation in the real estate industry that bond issuance has soared, but investment has fallen sharply.

Some insiders pointed out that the ways to deleverage real estate include accelerating sales, reducing land acquisition, selling assets, seeking equity financing, and even circulating asset packages.

According to Guotai Junan's data, by the end of June 2020, there were 22 "red-file" enterprises, including Evergrande, Greenland Group, Zhongnan Construction, Jinke, Huaxia Happiness, R&F Property and Rong Sheng Development. Many real estate developers reduce leverage in various ways.

In addition to accelerating sales, housing enterprises continue to transfer the equity of subsidiaries. 1 65438+1October1day, Evergrande announced the transfer of 40.96% equity of Guanghui Group to Shenneng Group, with a total transfer amount of148.5 billion yuan. Previously, Evergrande signed a supplementary agreement with a scale of 86.3 billion yuan, which converted the investment into long-term holding of common shares and explicitly gave up the right to repurchase. Evergrande has also split the property management business, and has formally submitted the listing application form to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

It is also reported that Evergrande and Sunac plan to issue bonds in the interbank market for the first time and are preparing relevant materials for this purpose.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned medium-sized housing enterprises said that from the inside of the company, during the six-month transition period of the "three red lines", real estate companies should increase sales returns, reduce investment such as land acquisition, and introduce investors to increase their rights and interests. "We are also negotiating with some real estate companies, or taking shares or circulating asset packages, and strive to reduce the leverage ratio to compliance before the beginning of next year."

Editor Li Jianhua Intern Li Geli

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