Why did Yugoslavia disintegrate?

Are the conflicts between various ethnic groups really the reason for the disintegration of Yugoslavia?

The real driving force behind the civil war in the former Yugoslavia

The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (also known as the "Second Yugoslavia"), which was born after the Second World War, has a long history. Why did 45 years of peaceful development disintegrate in 1991 and a tragic civil war broke out? The traditional view is that Yugoslavs have always fought against each other or fought for independence. After the death of strongman Tito in 1980, no leader has had the prestige he did. In addition, with the end of the Cold War, the inherent ethnic conflicts within Yugoslavia have led to the loss of economic interests. The conflict resulted in a political crisis and ultimately pushed the Confederacy to secession.

There is some truth to this statement, but the fact is that all ethnic groups in Yugoslavia have lived together in the same country for nearly a century, and have established comprehensive contacts with each other, close economic relations, and mixed families. All. Therefore, much of the extreme hatred that emerged in the 1990s was a product of war and opportunistic political practices, rather than something that existed in the first place.

So, why does Slovenia want independence? The answer is ironic: it was European integration and free trade that disintegrated the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This makes Western Europe a safer and more economically attractive place for smaller countries. After World War I, Slovenia was saved from being partitioned by Italy, Germany, and Austria by uniting with other southern Slavs. However, by the end of the 1980s, the idea that Slovenia and Croatia, which were economically relatively wealthy, would break away from their lagging partners and move closer to Western Europe was gaining ground.

Sri Lanka, Croatia and Serbia led by Milosevic held many rounds of negotiations but failed to reach an agreement. At that time, except for Germany, the European powers and the United States were all clearly opposed to the secession of the Yugoslav Republic for the purpose of maintaining stability in the Balkans. "But what is puzzling is that at almost the same time, a public report by the CIA made people seem to see the contradictions in the US policy towards South Korea. Some historians now analyze that it was precisely the report of the CIA "Making the avoidable disintegration irreversible"

At the end of 1990, the CIA submitted a forecast report on the situation in Yugoslavia to President Bush, who was in the midst of a stalemate in the Gulf War. The report said: "Yugoslavia will disintegrate within the next 18 months." This prediction caused an uproar around the world. The Yugoslav authorities immediately issued a statement, strongly protesting and condemning it. Most international public opinion also believed that this was pure nonsense. The release of this report by the United States at a time when the situation in Yugoslavia is in a delicate state is by no means a good intention, nor is it accidental. At first, the international community generally expressed doubts about its prediction. However, in less than a year, the development of the situation fulfilled the CIA's statement. Others say that it was this report that encouraged the national separatists in the former Yugoslavia and accelerated their actions to split the Yugoslav Federation.

Serbs have a bad reputation

During the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, "ethnic cleansing" incidents occurred frequently, and all parties are responsible. But why did the Serbs end up being the only ones who got the bad reputation of being “SS soldiers”? Even the later Serbian Prime Minister Djinjic (who was assassinated) himself admitted that "we Serbians have a really bad reputation."

Throughout the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, all warring parties targeted international assistance, including the support of international public opinion. They even spend huge sums of money to hire public relations companies in the United States and Canada to create a "good international image" for themselves and vilify their opponents. Molino, the editor-in-chief of France 2 TV, once interviewed Harf, the president of Ludfin Public Relations Company, the most influential global public affairs agency today, and revealed the "production process" of public opinion. Molino recorded Harf's answer in his book "The Real Situation in Yugoslavia Is Hard to Tell":

"We succeeded in getting the Jews to our side... because the President of Croatia Tudjman's wording in his book "Historical Facts Go Wrong" is very careless. Anyone who reads his book will accuse him of being an anti-Semite... In addition, it did happen in Croatia and Bosnia in the past. The brutal persecution of the Jews.

As a result, our work is outstanding. On August 2 and 5, 1992, New York's "Newsday" happened to break the news that the Serbs had set up concentration camps, using the titles "Death Camp" and "Serb Death Camp." We took the opportunity to win over three huge Jewish organizations to our side...

"You know, the Yugoslav issue is extremely complicated, and no one knows what happened there. In fact, the vast majority of the United States People ask 'Where in Africa is Bosnia?' and in a split second we come up with a simple story of good guys and bad guys.

"Our job is not to check whether the content of the news is true or not... … People don’t pay us to promote moral doctrines. Even if we have responsibilities, we are very calm. If you want to prove that Serbs are victims you might as well try, your situation must be very isolated. ”

In fact, without the support of hegemonic power, no matter how powerful a public relations company is, it cannot cover the sky with one hand. On August 28, 1995, a mortar bomb exploded in the center of Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, killing more than a hundred people. Innocent civilians. The peacekeeping force made no conclusion after conducting an investigation that day, but announced the next day that the tragedy was committed by the Serbs. To this day, it is still a mystery as to who fired the shell. It is impossible for the Serb armed forces on the city's mountains to have such bullet marks. Yugoslavia newspapers even believed that this was a "painful plot" staged by the Muslims under the direction of the US intelligence agency.

The Milosevic regime

After the Kosovo War, the US CIA, British MI6 and other intelligence agencies re-entered Yugoslavia. At this time, their purpose was clear, which was to subvert Milosevic. The United States also provided a large amount of funding to the Serbian opposition through the National Endowment for Democracy, which amounted to US$10 million in 1999 and increased to US$31 million in 2000. The Americans revealed that the leading role in this activity was actually the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Association for International Development (AID), while the allocation of funds was handed over by the Government Foreign Aid Agency (GFAA) through commercial contracts. "National Democracy Promotion Foundation", and then non-profit organizations such as "National Institute for Democracy" and "International Institute of Politics and Political Science" are responsible for the specific operations.

Penn, a large professional election company in the United States. Doug Sean, a pollster from Sean and Burland Polling Company, also conducted in-depth analysis of the poll results of Serbian voters to help the Serbian opposition coalition seek to overthrow Milosevic, the leader of European politics. "Phoenix" method. After analysis and research, Sean gave advice to the Serbian opposition party, which has been in a state of disintegration: Michael has experienced four war defeats, two large-scale demonstrations, 78 days of NATO bombing, nearly 10 A "survivor" of 2008 international sanctions, he would be "absolutely vulnerable" if he faced another well-organized campaign challenge. Later, the U.S. State Department and the CIA determined to use Sean's suggestions to turn the disorganized South. The alliance's opposition parties united.

After that, Western intelligence agencies began to invest a lot of money in Yugoslavia to support anti-government forces. Similarly, a large amount of broadcast equipment, computers, and even small printing equipment continued to flow into Serbia. When the general election began, the United States also paid for 5,000 cans of paint for Serbian student movement organizations, allowing them to paint anti-American slogans and slogans all over Serbia. Between July and October 2000, the United States funded the " Gotovje" (meaning "He is finished" in Serbian, this slogan later became the slogan of the entire "rice dumping movement"), there were 2.5 million stickers, weighing 80 tons. During this period, these stickers were sold all over Serbia. Similarly, the clenched fist logo of the "OTPOR" (resistance) movement organization printed with American funds can be seen everywhere.

By the end of the 2000 election, the United States, Britain and Germany had provided more than $60 million in activity funds to the southern opposition.

Shortly after the Kosovo War, an official of the Serbian government said that the Americans had been in contact with members of the Yugoslav Army and threatened them: "(We) will increase the number of people on the war criminals list to 600 people, so you either tell me when you betrayed your superiors, or you go to The Hague (for trial)." A U.S. intelligence official confirmed that U.S. intelligence agents have been looking for defectors who can bring down Milosevic. who.

While engaging in political warfare, Western countries led by the United States also strengthened economic sanctions against Yugoslavia. In the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe adopted in July 1999, Yugoslavia failed to receive even a single dollar of aid. In addition, South African companies are included in the blacklist and whitelist respectively based on whether they support the Mi regime. South African companies on the blacklist will not be able to do business with companies from EU countries.

Due to his misjudgment of what happened, Milosevic made a decision in July 2000: to hold an early presidential election in Yugoslavia on September 24 of that year. On September 28, the Federal Election Commission of Yugoslavia announced the results of the presidential election: opposition candidate Kostunica received 48.96 votes and Milosevic received 38.62 votes. Therefore, a second round of elections will be held two weeks later. However, the opposition believed that this was the result of "political fraud". In fact, Kostunica won the election in the first round with more than 52 votes. As a result, the opposition party called for a nationwide resistance movement. On October 5, the large-scale attack on the parliament organized by the opposition party finally ended with the defection of the "Red Berets" of the South's special forces and the South's military's "non-interference in the democratization process." Milosevic lost the presidency.

According to subsequent reports from the New York Times and the Washington Post, the U.S. Congress allocated $77 million in one day to directly intervene in Yugoslavia’s domestic politics; the day after the vote in the Yugoslavia election , the U.S. House of Representatives once again passed a bill, approving the allocation of US$105 million to help anti-Milosevic factions in South Africa.

On April 1, 2001, Milosevic was arrested and later sent to the War Crimes Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in The Hague for trial. Before Michael was sent to The Hague, the U.S. Ambassador to Yugoslavia, Montgomery, formally informed Yugoslav President Kostunica that if the Yugoslav government did not cooperate with the Hague Tribunal, the United States would cancel all of its promised aid to Yugoslavia this fiscal year. billion dollar plan.